New Orleans Saints @ Miami Dolphins Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Lean – New Orleans (-2.5/-3) over Miami (London)

The Dolphins have had a brutal travel schedule to start the season. After enduring Hurricane Irma caused them to cancel their first game, Miami has traveled to Los Angeles, then New York, and now London. The Dolphins have played poorly in their first two games and rank as the worst team in my metrics. The new offense with Jay Cutler at quarterback has only gained 4.3 yppl compared to their 5.8 yppl last season with Ryan Tannehill.

The Saints have relied on their air attack, per usual, and my numbers have their pass offense ranked 8^th, a ranking that could improve this week going against the Dolphin’s 30th ranked pass defense. However, New Orleans’ defense is even worse than Miami’s, as the Saints still rank last in the league according to my metrics even after holding Carolina to 13 points last week.

My model suggests that the true line on this game should be New Orleans by 4 ½ points and there is value on the Saints here against a Dolphins team possibly suffering from travel fatigue.

Team Stats
Game Log

Saints
Dolphins

NOR

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 37.7 37.0
Succ Pass Plays 52.8% 56.0%
Sack Rate 2.7% 6.2%
Int Rate 0.0% 3.0%
Deep Pass Rate 20.5% 19.6%
Big Pass Yards 46.8% 54.1%
NYPP 7.4 8.4

Rush

Rush Plays 21.7 28.7
RB YPR 4.4 4.6
Stuff Rate 17.3% 20.2%
Succ Rush Plays 43.7% 52.1%
Big Rush Yards 31.4% 49.7%
Yards Per Rush 4.4 4.6

Game

All Snaps 59.3 65.7
Early Down Succ 52.5% 53.6%
Succ Rate 50.0% 52.8%
Big Yards Rate 44.6% 53.8%
Yards Per Play 6.4 6.6
Fumble Lost Rate 0.0% 0.0%
Time Per Play (sec) 28.6 29.1
Run Ratio 36.8% 43.4%
Starting Field Pos 29.4 25.9
Game Control -4.1 4.1

Points 24.3 26.0

MIA

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 42.0 32.5
Succ Pass Plays 43.1% 57.3%
Sack Rate 5.9% 5.3%
Int Rate 2.2% 0.0%
Deep Pass Rate 25.5% 13.8%
Big Pass Yards 26.9% 34.8%
NYPP 5.2 8.7

Rush

Rush Plays 24.0 24.5
RB YPR 2.5 3.2
Stuff Rate 38.5% 42.1%
Succ Rush Plays 41.5% 32.9%
Big Rush Yards 17.9% 52.6%
Yards Per Rush 2.7 3.1

Game

All Snaps 66.0 57.0
Early Down Succ 48.8% 53.8%
Succ Rate 41.7% 48.5%
Big Yards Rate 25.2% 34.3%
Yards Per Play 4.2 6.2
Fumble Lost Rate 0.0% 0.8%
Time Per Play (sec) 26.0 32.7
Run Ratio 35.8% 42.1%
Starting Field Pos 25.0 28.2
Game Control -5.9 5.9

Points 12.5 18.5

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2017 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@MIN	19 – 29 L	-6.6	60.5% / 63.6%	2.6% / 3.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	7.5 / 10.3	28.6% / 27.3%	14.3% / 33.3%	2.9 / 4.0	59 / 66	52.1% / 44.7%	49.2% / 45.5%	29.9% / 68.0%	5.8 / 7.2	0.0% / 0.0%	35.6% / 50.0%	22.4 / 24.9
2	NE	20 – 36 L	-14.2	51.1% / 61.0%	2.2% / 4.9%	0.0% / 0.0%	7.7 / 10.6	47.1% / 51.6%	11.8% / 22.6%	4.8 / 3.8	62 / 72	54.2% / 58.3%	50.0% / 56.9%	48.3% / 53.2%	6.9 / 7.7	0.0% / 0.0%	27.4% / 43.1%	27.9 / 27.5
3	@CAR	34 – 13 W	8.6	46.7% / 43.2%	3.3% / 10.8%	0.0% / 9.1%	7.1 / 4.2	55.6% / 77.3%	25.9% / 4.5%	5.5 / 6.0	57 / 59	51.1% / 57.8%	50.9% / 55.9%	55.5% / 40.3%	6.4 / 4.9	0.0% / 0.0%	47.4% / 37.3%	37.8 / 25.2

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2017 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
2	@LAC	19 – 17 W	-2.0	44.4% / 62.5%	5.6% / 2.5%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.3 / 8.1	36.4% / 28.6%	30.3% / 50.0%	3.4 / 3.1	69 / 54	43.4% / 58.7%	40.6% / 53.7%	38.9% / 28.6%	4.9 / 6.8	0.0% / 0.0%	47.8% / 25.9%	26.4 / 24.9
3	@NYJ	6 – 20 L	-9.8	41.7% / 52.0%	6.3% / 8.0%	4.4% / 0.0%	4.1 / 9.3	46.7% / 37.1%	46.7% / 34.3%	2.0 / 3.0	63 / 60	54.2% / 48.9%	42.9% / 43.3%	11.6% / 40.1%	3.6 / 5.6	0.0% / 1.7%	23.8% / 58.3%	23.7 / 31.4

New Orleans Saints vs

Miami Dolphins

Sun, Oct 1

6:30 AM Pacific

Game Analysis