Game Analysis

Lean – LA RAMS (-4) over New Orleans

Lean – Over (46)

· Rams RB Kyren Williams ran against a light box on 78% of his carries last week and he leads the NFL with 660 rushing yards versus light boxes this season. I expect Saints head coach Dennis Allen to bring 3rd LB Zack Baun onto the field to contain the Los Angeles ground game and the defensive scheme could give Los Angeles trouble in the passing game as well.

· Sean McVay’s offense against man-coverage is averaging just 68% of the yards per attempt they’re averaging versus zone (30th) and Matthew Stafford might struggle as the New Orleans defense has a 31.6% man-coverage rate (7th-highest).

· However, WR Cooper Kupp will have a favorable matchup on the inside as Saints nickelback Alontae Taylor is surrendering 1.37 yards per cover snap in the slot (6th-worst).

· The Los Angeles offense will get back starting right tackle Rob Havenstein, who ranks 11th in pass-blocking efficiency. Havenstein is worth 0.8 points by our numbers.

· Meanwhile, New Orleans will likely be without starting RT Ryan Ramczyk but they will have WR Chris Olave back on the field. Olave has a 55% success rate (19th).

· Rams’ interior defender Aaron Donald ranks 3rd in pass-rushing efficiency but he might be slowed as the Saints’ interior offensive line is at fault for 46% of the allowed pressures (10th-fewest).

· Our model favors the Rams by 5.8 points, with a predicted total of 47.9 points, and LA applies to a 71-34-3 ATS Thursday night situation.