Game Analysis
The Saints have the 5th most efficient offense as measured by a 50.4% success rate. And Drew Brees has been even better throwing the ball, with a 52.4% success rate, good for 3rd in the league. The Chiefs have been porous on defense giving up 5.7 yards per play and a 47% success rate on Defense which projects to a defense that would allow 24 points per game vs. the 20 they have allowed. And while everyone can seemingly move the ball on the Saints, the 5.3 YPP Alex Smith’s offense has been averaging will make it difficult to cover the TD. The advanced stats model sees the value on the road dog, so Saints (+6) and OVER (50) are a Strong Opinions.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
46.0
41.4
-
Succ Pass Plays
52.6%
52.2%
-
Sack Rate
3.5%
4.3%
-
Int Rate
1.9%
0.9%
-
Deep Pass Rate
17.0%
18.9%
-
Big Pass Yards
42.4%
37.0%
-
NYPP
7.3
7.3
Rush
-
Rush Plays
23.4
28.8
-
RB YPR
3.5
4.1
-
Stuff Rate
13.5%
21.2%
-
Succ Rush Plays
46.8%
44.6%
-
Big Rush Yards
21.6%
36.6%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.5
4.1
Game
-
All Snaps
69.4
70.2
-
Early Down Succ
52.1%
52.0%
-
Succ Rate
50.4%
48.8%
-
Big Yards Rate
38.7%
39.3%
-
Yards Per Play
6.0
6.1
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.6%
1.6%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
25.9
25.8
-
Run Ratio
33.2%
41.1%
-
Starting Field Pos
26.4
29.4
-
Game Control
0.6
-0.6
Pass
-
Pass Plays
41.0
36.0
-
Succ Pass Plays
48.5%
47.5%
-
Sack Rate
6.6%
4.2%
-
Int Rate
0.8%
4.5%
-
Deep Pass Rate
12.5%
18.0%
-
Big Pass Yards
29.5%
40.5%
-
NYPP
6.3
6.8
Rush
-
Rush Plays
25.6
27.2
-
RB YPR
4.7
4.4
-
Stuff Rate
24.0%
19.9%
-
Succ Rush Plays
39.9%
46.7%
-
Big Rush Yards
57.6%
29.9%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.5
4.4
Game
-
All Snaps
66.6
63.2
-
Early Down Succ
47.1%
49.4%
-
Succ Rate
44.8%
46.6%
-
Big Yards Rate
37.2%
38.2%
-
Yards Per Play
5.3
5.7
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.6%
1.0%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.2
28.2
-
Run Ratio
38.7%
42.6%
-
Starting Field Pos
29.4
30.7
-
Game Control
-5.5
5.5
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2016 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
OAK |
34 – 35 L |
4.0 |
58.5% /
48.6% |
2.4% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
10.2 /
8.6 |
54.5% /
57.7% |
18.2% /
23.1% |
4.0 /
6.4 |
63 /
63 |
60.8% /
55.8% |
57.1% /
52.4% |
58.4% /
56.4% |
8.0 /
7.7 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
34.9% /
41.3% |
19.7 /
28.6 |
| 2 |
@NYG |
13 – 16 L |
-2.0 |
43.5% /
60.5% |
4.3% /
4.7% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
5.4 /
8.2 |
38.5% /
33.3% |
15.4% /
25.0% |
3.2 /
1.9 |
59 /
79 |
47.8% /
53.6% |
42.4% /
48.1% |
15.3% /
32.8% |
4.9 /
5.3 |
0.0% /
3.8% |
22.0% /
45.6% |
29.6 /
21.5 |
| 3 |
ATL |
32 – 45 L |
-7.9 |
50.0% /
59.4% |
3.6% /
6.3% |
1.9% /
0.0% |
6.4 /
7.0 |
56.5% /
48.5% |
4.3% /
9.1% |
5.0 /
6.6 |
79 /
65 |
51.6% /
57.1% |
51.9% /
53.8% |
49.6% /
49.8% |
6.0 /
6.8 |
1.3% /
0.0% |
29.1% /
50.8% |
23.8 /
32.6 |
| 4 |
@SD |
35 – 34 W |
-2.3 |
50.0% /
43.5% |
5.3% /
6.5% |
5.6% /
2.3% |
5.0 /
6.7 |
36.8% /
33.3% |
10.5% /
38.1% |
2.3 /
1.8 |
76 /
67 |
42.0% /
39.6% |
43.4% /
40.3% |
19.0% /
38.7% |
3.7 /
5.2 |
0.0% /
3.0% |
50.0% /
31.3% |
36.9 /
31.4 |
| 6 |
CAR |
41 – 38 W |
11.3 |
61.2% /
49.0% |
2.0% /
4.1% |
2.1% /
2.1% |
9.4 /
6.2 |
47.6% /
50.0% |
19.0% /
10.7% |
3.0 /
3.7 |
70 /
77 |
58.5% /
54.0% |
57.1% /
49.4% |
51.4% /
18.9% |
7.5 /
5.3 |
0.0% /
1.3% |
30.0% /
36.4% |
21.9 /
32.8 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2016 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
SD |
33 – 27 W |
-11.5 |
52.9% /
56.8% |
5.9% /
2.7% |
2.1% /
0.0% |
6.5 /
6.3 |
57.9% /
57.6% |
21.1% /
15.2% |
4.4 /
4.7 |
70 /
70 |
57.4% /
62.3% |
54.3% /
57.1% |
44.3% /
38.8% |
5.9 /
5.6 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
27.1% /
47.1% |
28.4 /
30.4 |
| 2 |
@HOU |
12 – 19 L |
-6.8 |
34.1% /
40.0% |
9.8% /
5.7% |
0.0% /
6.1% |
4.2 /
7.3 |
36.8% /
32.4% |
31.6% /
18.9% |
6.3 /
2.7 |
60 /
72 |
39.1% /
41.2% |
35.0% /
36.1% |
37.1% /
38.2% |
4.9 /
4.9 |
5.0% /
0.0% |
31.7% /
51.4% |
29.5 /
35.9 |
| 3 |
NYJ |
24 – 3 W |
10.3 |
48.6% /
34.1% |
5.7% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
13.6% |
6.3 /
4.3 |
30.0% /
50.0% |
33.3% /
13.6% |
2.5 /
5.3 |
65 /
66 |
43.2% /
36.0% |
40.0% /
39.4% |
40.2% /
39.0% |
4.6 /
4.6 |
1.5% /
3.0% |
46.2% /
33.3% |
27.3 /
30.1 |
| 4 |
@PIT |
14 – 43 L |
-25.5 |
44.4% /
55.2% |
7.4% /
6.9% |
2.0% /
0.0% |
5.0 /
9.9 |
22.2% /
40.7% |
22.2% /
22.2% |
4.8 /
5.6 |
72 /
56 |
34.6% /
50.0% |
38.9% /
48.2% |
18.5% /
59.4% |
5.0 /
7.8 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
25.0% /
48.2% |
24.5 /
31.4 |
| 6 |
@OAK |
26 – 10 W |
5.9 |
62.5% /
51.4% |
4.2% /
5.7% |
0.0% /
3.0% |
9.3 /
6.3 |
52.4% /
52.9% |
11.9% /
29.4% |
4.4 /
3.8 |
66 /
52 |
61.2% /
57.5% |
56.1% /
51.9% |
45.8% /
15.4% |
6.2 /
5.5 |
0.0% /
1.9% |
63.6% /
32.7% |
37.4 /
25.5 |
New Orleans Saints
@ 
Kansas City Chiefs