Game Analysis

CLEVELAND (-3) vs New Orleans

· This handicap starts with the weather. We are looking at sustained winds around 30 mph with gusts into the 50s. The “feels like” temperature at kickoff sitting at a brutal negative nine degrees Fahrenheit.

· This total is on pace to be the lowest we’ve seen since 2008.

· Our metrics suggest the scoring conditions will be about 5 points worse than average but sometimes on the extremes these can be hard to model mathematically because the sample size is so low. For example, the Bengals beat the Browns 14 to 0 in the 2008 game I referenced earlier with a closing total of 31.5.

· This game will be decided on the ground, and it would seem one team has a decided advantage after comparing the two rush defenses. The Saints were allowing -0.116 EPA/rush the first 9 weeks of the season (6th) before losing starting linebacker Pete Werner.

· New Orleans dropped to -0.035 EPA/rush allowed without Werner for four games, but they should get back to a stingy run defense with Werner back in the lineup this week and contain a Browns rush offense with a 44% success rate (7th).

· Cleveland’s defense is surrendering a league-high 0.086 EPA/rush and New Orleans will likely be able to move the ball down the field with Alvin Kamara and Taysom Hill, who had 28 combined carries last week.

· Browns linebacker Deoin Jones shut down Mark Andrews last week holding the All-Pro tight end to one yard on two targets. Jones should be able to do the same versus Saints rookie TE Juwan Johnson, who is gaining 0.37 EPA/target (3rd). Jones will also play a role in stopping Kamara in the passing game. Kamara is averaging 1.76 yards per route run (2nd).

· The long ball will be nonexistent in this wind and Deshaun Watson will likely have his short passes unavailable in this matchup. New Orleans is allowing a league-low 4.7 yards per target to tight ends and I’m not expecting much from TE David Njoku, who has a 59% success rate (2nd).

· Our model makes Cleveland a 3.9-point favorite with a predicted total of 32.6.