Game Analysis
Lean – CAROLINA (+13.5/+13) over New Orleans
Will Grier showed us why he wasn’t able to beat Kyle Allen for the starting job, as he averaged just 3.8 yards per pass play against an awful Colts secondary last week. Christian McCaffrey needs 67 receiving yards to become the third player ever to record 1000 rushing yards and 1000 receiving yards in the same season, but it won’t be easy in the matchup. The Saints are one of four teams allowing less than 5 yards per target to opposing running backs and linebacker Demario Davis is surrendering only 0.76 yards per cover snap (4th). Cameron Jordan has 14.5 sacks (3rd) but the edge rusher will be neutralized by right tackle Taylor Moton, who ranks 9th in pass blocking efficiency. New Orleans lost their other edge rushing threat Marcus Davenport (foot surgery), who ranks 13th in pass rushing efficiency, so the Saints aren’t likely to apply as much pressure on Grier as they normally would.
Gerald McCoy ranks 8th in pass rushing efficiency among interior defenders for the Panthers and should wreak havoc up the middle against a Saints interior line that could be without both starting guards again. I expect New Orleans to have a conservative game-plan protecting Drew Brees since they are a huge favorite. Alvin Kamara will exploit Carolina’s 31st-rated rush defense all afternoon. Michael Thomas just set the NFL record for most receptions in a season and he has a favorable matchup across from cornerback Donte Jackson, who is conceding 1.62 yards per cover snap (4th-worst).
The Saints need a win plus a 49ers or Packers loss to get a first-round bye in the playoffs. Our model makes New Orleans a 10.7-point favorite with a predicted total of 49.3 and I’ll lean with the Panthers as I think the Saints will be playing not to lose rather than playing to win big.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
38.3
40.2
-
Succ Pass Plays
53.0%
42.5%
-
Sack Rate
3.9%
8.4%
-
Int Rate
1.1%
1.8%
-
Deep Pass Rate
12.9%
17.3%
-
Big Pass Yards
34.3%
44.3%
-
NYPP
7.0
6.0
Rush
-
Rush Plays
24.7
21.8
-
RB YPR
4.4
3.8
-
Stuff Rate
18.3%
25.8%
-
Succ Rush Plays
53.2%
45.2%
-
Big Rush Yards
43.6%
36.7%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.5
4.2
Game
-
All Snaps
62.9
62.0
-
Early Down Succ
56.5%
46.3%
-
Succ Rate
52.4%
43.8%
-
Big Yards Rate
37.2%
42.4%
-
Yards Per Play
5.9
5.4
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.2%
0.9%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
30.6
27.1
-
Run Ratio
39.1%
35.1%
-
Starting Field Pos
31.8
26.3
-
Game Control
4.2
-4.2
Pass
-
Pass Plays
42.7
37.7
-
Succ Pass Plays
45.7%
45.0%
-
Sack Rate
8.6%
9.2%
-
Int Rate
3.0%
2.4%
-
Deep Pass Rate
19.3%
20.4%
-
Big Pass Yards
32.0%
40.0%
-
NYPP
5.4
6.2
Rush
-
Rush Plays
24.5
27.3
-
RB YPR
4.9
5.1
-
Stuff Rate
22.7%
20.0%
-
Succ Rush Plays
46.3%
53.2%
-
Big Rush Yards
42.3%
52.3%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.8
5.3
Game
-
All Snaps
67.2
65.0
-
Early Down Succ
48.8%
51.1%
-
Succ Rate
45.5%
48.3%
-
Big Yards Rate
37.2%
48.5%
-
Yards Per Play
5.1
5.8
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.3%
0.6%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
26.1
28.7
-
Run Ratio
36.9%
42.5%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.7
30.3
-
Game Control
-3.8
3.8
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2019 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
HOU |
30 – 28 W |
-2.7 |
59.1% /
38.9% |
2.3% /
16.7% |
2.3% /
3.3% |
8.2 /
6.5 |
52.4% /
60.9% |
9.5% /
30.4% |
7.0 /
7.8 |
65 /
59 |
57.7% /
44.4% |
56.9% /
47.5% |
45.5% /
68.4% |
7.8 /
7.0 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
32.3% /
39.0% |
26.4 /
17.9 |
| 2 |
@LA |
9 – 27 L |
-5.8 |
37.8% /
41.9% |
5.4% /
9.7% |
2.9% /
0.0% |
5.1 /
8.5 |
50.0% /
50.0% |
25.0% /
20.0% |
2.9 /
3.8 |
57 /
61 |
46.5% /
50.0% |
42.1% /
45.9% |
16.4% /
51.3% |
4.3 /
6.2 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
35.1% /
49.2% |
29.8 /
28.8 |
| 3 |
@SEA |
33 – 27 W |
10.4 |
55.6% /
50.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.6 /
8.1 |
47.8% /
42.3% |
26.1% /
26.9% |
3.8 /
4.2 |
50 /
76 |
57.9% /
52.6% |
52.0% /
47.4% |
21.1% /
56.7% |
5.3 /
6.8 |
2.0% /
1.3% |
46.0% /
34.2% |
28.9 /
23.5 |
| 4 |
DAL |
12 – 10 W |
1.2 |
42.9% /
44.1% |
14.3% /
2.9% |
3.3% /
3.0% |
4.3 /
6.2 |
59.3% /
45.0% |
18.5% /
15.0% |
4.3 /
2.3 |
62 /
54 |
52.1% /
43.9% |
50.0% /
44.4% |
34.6% /
26.1% |
4.3 /
4.8 |
0.0% /
3.7% |
43.5% /
37.0% |
33.3 /
23.1 |
| 5 |
TB |
31 – 24 W |
6.3 |
55.6% /
39.4% |
0.0% /
18.2% |
2.8% /
0.0% |
9.6 /
4.8 |
29.0% /
50.0% |
19.4% /
13.6% |
3.6 /
4.3 |
67 /
55 |
40.8% /
46.5% |
43.3% /
43.6% |
42.5% /
43.7% |
6.8 /
4.6 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
46.3% /
40.0% |
27.0 /
30.4 |
| 6 |
@JAC |
13 – 6 W |
2.4 |
48.7% /
38.7% |
7.7% /
6.5% |
0.0% /
3.4% |
5.7 /
4.9 |
65.4% /
25.0% |
19.2% /
16.7% |
4.0 /
3.1 |
65 /
55 |
62.0% /
35.0% |
55.4% /
32.7% |
36.5% /
35.8% |
5.0 /
4.1 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
40.0% /
43.6% |
32.1 /
18.1 |
| 7 |
@CHI |
36 – 25 W |
8.2 |
48.7% /
44.6% |
2.6% /
3.6% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
7.0 /
4.2 |
54.3% /
28.6% |
14.3% /
28.6% |
4.3 /
2.4 |
74 /
63 |
54.4% /
49.0% |
51.4% /
42.9% |
42.9% /
11.1% |
5.7 /
4.0 |
0.0% /
3.2% |
47.3% /
11.1% |
39.5 /
26.1 |
| 8 |
ARI |
31 – 9 W |
6.3 |
60.5% /
36.8% |
0.0% /
10.5% |
2.3% /
0.0% |
8.7 /
5.2 |
44.8% /
36.4% |
17.2% /
45.5% |
4.7 /
3.6 |
72 /
49 |
54.2% /
45.7% |
54.2% /
36.7% |
45.7% /
37.1% |
7.1 /
4.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
40.3% /
22.4% |
31.2 /
26.1 |
| 10 |
ATL |
9 – 26 L |
-6.7 |
46.2% /
33.3% |
11.5% /
2.8% |
0.0% /
2.9% |
5.0 /
4.8 |
72.7% /
44.1% |
9.1% /
23.5% |
4.7 /
4.2 |
63 /
70 |
63.0% /
37.0% |
50.8% /
38.6% |
10.6% /
38.5% |
4.9 /
4.5 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
17.5% /
48.6% |
26.6 /
36.9 |
| 11 |
@TB |
34 – 17 W |
10.1 |
55.6% /
43.4% |
2.8% /
3.8% |
0.0% /
7.8% |
6.1 /
5.6 |
67.9% /
50.0% |
7.1% /
50.0% |
3.9 /
4.5 |
64 /
61 |
64.6% /
46.8% |
60.9% /
44.3% |
33.2% /
50.9% |
5.1 /
5.5 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
43.8% /
13.1% |
33.2 /
23.5 |
| 12 |
CAR |
34 – 31 W |
6.6 |
58.5% /
50.0% |
4.9% /
10.0% |
2.6% /
0.0% |
7.3 /
5.8 |
55.6% /
51.7% |
33.3% /
31.0% |
6.6 /
4.2 |
59 /
69 |
63.8% /
52.7% |
57.6% /
50.7% |
43.3% /
45.3% |
7.1 /
5.1 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
30.5% /
42.0% |
30.7 /
31.3 |
| 13 |
@ATL |
26 – 18 W |
8.3 |
48.4% /
40.7% |
0.0% /
15.3% |
0.0% /
4.0% |
5.9 /
4.4 |
38.9% /
50.0% |
27.8% /
19.2% |
5.3 /
3.4 |
49 /
85 |
52.6% /
43.8% |
44.9% /
43.5% |
48.7% /
6.6% |
5.7 /
4.1 |
0.0% /
1.2% |
36.7% /
30.6% |
35.4 /
30.2 |
| 14 |
SF |
46 – 48 L |
1.2 |
56.1% /
51.3% |
0.0% /
7.7% |
0.0% /
2.8% |
8.5 /
9.1 |
55.6% /
58.3% |
22.2% /
16.7% |
4.3 /
6.8 |
68 /
63 |
57.4% /
55.1% |
55.9% /
54.0% |
51.6% /
70.5% |
6.8 /
8.2 |
1.5% /
0.0% |
39.7% /
38.1% |
34.8 /
30.5 |
| 15 |
IND |
34 – 7 W |
18.0 |
76.7% /
37.1% |
0.0% /
2.9% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
10.2 /
4.5 |
48.5% /
35.3% |
12.1% /
23.5% |
3.5 /
2.7 |
63 /
52 |
65.4% /
39.5% |
61.9% /
36.5% |
36.3% /
32.2% |
6.7 /
3.9 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
52.4% /
32.7% |
30.3 /
22.0 |
| 16 |
@TEN |
38 – 28 W |
-1.3 |
44.2% /
46.9% |
7.0% /
15.6% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.4 /
7.8 |
56.5% /
50.0% |
13.0% /
26.9% |
4.4 /
5.7 |
66 /
58 |
54.9% /
52.3% |
48.5% /
48.3% |
48.8% /
62.5% |
5.7 /
6.8 |
0.0% /
1.7% |
34.8% /
44.8% |
37.2 /
25.4 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2019 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
LA |
27 – 30 L |
-6.7 |
46.3% /
47.5% |
7.3% /
2.5% |
2.6% /
2.6% |
5.3 /
4.6 |
56.5% /
59.4% |
17.4% /
21.9% |
5.5 /
5.2 |
64 /
72 |
51.9% /
54.7% |
50.0% /
52.8% |
24.2% /
43.0% |
5.4 /
4.8 |
3.1% /
0.0% |
35.9% /
44.4% |
34.2 /
36.8 |
| 2 |
TB |
14 – 20 L |
-1.4 |
40.7% /
39.3% |
5.6% /
10.7% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
5.8 /
6.8 |
26.3% /
35.5% |
57.9% /
25.8% |
2.1 /
3.2 |
73 /
59 |
42.9% /
43.5% |
37.0% /
37.3% |
43.2% /
63.0% |
4.8 /
4.9 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
26.0% /
52.5% |
27.6 /
26.5 |
| 3 |
@ARI |
38 – 20 W |
4.1 |
60.7% /
35.3% |
7.1% /
15.7% |
0.0% /
4.7% |
8.6 /
2.5 |
38.7% /
68.2% |
16.1% /
18.2% |
5.6 /
5.5 |
59 /
73 |
53.2% /
41.8% |
49.2% /
45.2% |
46.7% /
35.1% |
7.0 /
3.4 |
1.7% /
0.0% |
52.5% /
30.1% |
36.2 /
22.5 |
| 4 |
@HOU |
16 – 10 W |
2.3 |
51.4% /
40.0% |
8.1% /
15.0% |
0.0% /
2.9% |
5.5 /
3.2 |
35.7% /
68.2% |
25.0% /
18.2% |
3.4 /
6.2 |
65 /
62 |
43.1% /
54.0% |
44.6% /
50.0% |
28.3% /
36.0% |
4.6 /
4.3 |
4.6% /
1.6% |
43.1% /
35.5% |
29.9 /
29.6 |
| 5 |
JAC |
34 – 27 W |
5.8 |
44.1% /
52.2% |
8.8% /
4.3% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
4.7 /
7.8 |
55.6% /
45.2% |
18.5% /
25.8% |
10.6 /
4.8 |
61 /
77 |
54.2% /
50.8% |
49.2% /
49.4% |
63.8% /
57.8% |
7.3 /
6.6 |
0.0% /
3.9% |
44.3% /
40.3% |
28.8 /
22.9 |
| 6 |
@TB |
37 – 26 W |
11.3 |
44.1% /
42.6% |
5.9% /
11.5% |
0.0% /
9.3% |
6.1 /
6.0 |
27.6% /
42.9% |
37.9% /
7.1% |
2.0 /
3.0 |
63 /
75 |
41.3% /
44.8% |
36.5% /
42.7% |
45.5% /
38.3% |
4.3 /
5.4 |
1.6% /
2.7% |
46.0% /
18.7% |
40.6 /
26.6 |
| 8 |
@SF |
13 – 51 L |
-19.5 |
31.8% /
52.0% |
15.9% /
12.0% |
8.1% /
4.5% |
2.3 /
6.2 |
47.4% /
36.8% |
21.1% /
23.7% |
6.8 /
6.1 |
63 /
63 |
43.8% /
43.1% |
36.5% /
42.9% |
52.6% /
59.8% |
3.7 /
6.2 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
30.2% /
60.3% |
25.4 /
45.6 |
| 9 |
TEN |
30 – 20 W |
9.2 |
45.7% /
48.8% |
8.6% /
9.3% |
3.1% /
5.1% |
6.1 /
7.2 |
45.5% /
47.6% |
15.2% /
23.8% |
4.7 /
5.8 |
68 /
64 |
48.0% /
50.9% |
45.6% /
48.4% |
50.3% /
44.5% |
5.4 /
6.7 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
48.5% /
32.8% |
39.1 /
21.6 |
| 10 |
@GB |
16 – 24 L |
-4.9 |
45.7% /
38.7% |
6.5% /
6.5% |
2.3% /
0.0% |
6.1 /
7.3 |
52.2% /
70.4% |
8.7% /
18.5% |
5.2 /
6.0 |
69 /
58 |
48.3% /
55.1% |
47.8% /
53.4% |
28.7% /
56.2% |
5.8 /
6.7 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
33.3% /
46.6% |
25.0 /
25.6 |
| 11 |
ATL |
3 – 29 L |
-15.6 |
40.0% /
51.4% |
9.1% /
8.6% |
8.0% /
0.0% |
4.9 /
8.4 |
53.3% /
38.5% |
13.3% /
26.9% |
5.1 /
2.1 |
70 /
61 |
49.0% /
47.7% |
42.9% /
45.9% |
34.0% /
44.4% |
5.0 /
5.7 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
21.4% /
42.6% |
22.7 /
35.4 |
| 12 |
@NO |
31 – 34 L |
-6.6 |
50.0% /
58.5% |
10.0% /
4.9% |
0.0% /
2.6% |
5.8 /
7.3 |
51.7% /
55.6% |
31.0% /
33.3% |
4.2 /
6.6 |
69 /
59 |
52.7% /
63.8% |
50.7% /
57.6% |
45.3% /
43.3% |
5.1 /
7.1 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
42.0% /
30.5% |
31.3 /
30.7 |
| 13 |
WAS |
21 – 29 L |
1.9 |
39.6% /
33.3% |
13.2% /
16.7% |
2.2% /
0.0% |
4.0 /
3.8 |
30.0% /
66.7% |
30.0% /
20.0% |
3.3 /
8.3 |
73 /
60 |
38.2% /
56.3% |
37.0% /
50.0% |
29.9% /
64.9% |
3.8 /
6.0 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
27.4% /
50.0% |
24.8 /
33.8 |
| 14 |
@ATL |
20 – 40 L |
-9.4 |
52.2% /
42.9% |
10.9% /
2.9% |
4.9% /
0.0% |
5.3 /
8.6 |
59.1% /
50.0% |
13.6% /
12.5% |
4.5 /
5.0 |
68 /
67 |
58.6% /
48.1% |
54.4% /
46.3% |
18.3% /
41.4% |
5.1 /
6.9 |
2.9% /
0.0% |
32.4% /
47.8% |
21.7 /
39.8 |
| 15 |
SEA |
24 – 30 L |
-10.9 |
53.5% /
58.6% |
2.3% /
6.9% |
7.1% /
3.7% |
6.3 /
9.4 |
62.1% /
47.1% |
20.7% /
17.6% |
5.0 /
4.5 |
72 /
63 |
60.0% /
56.0% |
56.9% /
52.4% |
28.0% /
50.0% |
5.8 /
6.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
40.3% /
54.0% |
21.5 /
31.0 |
| 16 |
@IND |
6 – 38 L |
-16.9 |
40.0% /
33.3% |
10.0% /
10.0% |
6.7% /
0.0% |
4.0 /
3.5 |
52.4% /
65.6% |
14.3% /
6.3% |
4.1 /
6.8 |
71 /
62 |
47.2% /
55.3% |
43.7% /
50.0% |
18.5% /
49.1% |
4.0 /
5.2 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
29.6% /
51.6% |
22.1 /
25.7 |
New Orleans Saints
@ 
Carolina Panthers