Game Analysis
Lean – Under (51.5) – New Orleans (-6) vs CAROLINA
New Orleans defeated Carolina three times last season while topping 30 points in each contest because Ron Rivera’s defense plays right into the hands of Drew Brees. The Panthers are one of the heaviest blitzing teams in the league and Drew Brees is averaging 8.7 yards per attempt with 11 touchdowns and 1 interception facing the blitz this season. Brees has been consistently better versus the blitz than a standard pass rush throughout his career and I expect him to have another solid performance. Michael Thomas is gaining 2.87 yards per route run (2nd) and has favorable matchups on the outside against Donte Jackson and James Bradberry, who both rank in the bottom 10 in yards allowed per cover snap.
The Pro Bowl wide receiver will need to take advantage as New Orleans’ talented backfield will probably be limited. The Saints target their running backs 2nd-most in the league (30%) and they have the 9th-highest adjusted rush rate with Mark Ingram in the lineup. However, Luke Keuchly is a nightmare for opposing running backs, surrendering just 0.56 yards per cover snap (2nd) and recording a 13.0% run stop rate (1st). Alvin Kamara and Ingram are likely in line for mediocre afternoons but the Saints have provent that they can find ways to score against the Panthers and targeting Thomas more often can make up for the likely lack of success from the running backs.
On the other side of the ball, the Saints’ best pass rushers also have unfavorable matchups. Coming off his best game of the season, Sheldon Rankins now rates 5th among interior defensive linemen in pass rush efficiency, but he should be limited by Pro Bowl guard Trai Turner, and Cameron Jordan, who’s recorded 12 sacks this year (tied-6th), will find it difficult facing Taylor Moton, who ranks 8th in pass blocking efficiency. Still, I’m not expecting too much from Carolina’s passing attack as Cam Newton might be playing with an injury. Newton has been pulled for a couple hail-Mary throws in the last 2 games and now there’s talk about him needing shoulder surgery. To make matters worse, Newton is without his most reliable target in Greg Olsen for the rest of the season. Newton has targeted backup tight end Ian Thomas 16 times in the last 2 weeks but he’s adding about 0.4 points less per target than Olsen did and the Saints are one of four teams allowing less than 6 yards per target to opposing tight ends. Overall, we’re downgrading the Panthers offense about a point.
Our model favors New Orleans by 6.3 with a predicted total of 49.1. I have no opinion on the side but I do like the under. Not only is there some value towards the under based on the math model but this game applies to a 710-512-16 Under situation that is 51-28 Under when it applies to the Monday night game.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
33.3
37.4
-
Succ Pass Plays
58.8%
52.2%
-
Sack Rate
3.3%
8.6%
-
Int Rate
1.2%
2.7%
-
Deep Pass Rate
17.0%
19.5%
-
Big Pass Yards
41.5%
39.2%
-
NYPP
7.9
7.5
Rush
-
Rush Plays
31.9
22.1
-
RB YPR
3.8
3.2
-
Stuff Rate
16.0%
25.2%
-
Succ Rush Plays
49.7%
43.6%
-
Big Rush Yards
33.3%
36.0%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.9
3.7
Game
-
All Snaps
65.2
59.5
-
Early Down Succ
58.1%
50.3%
-
Succ Rate
53.9%
48.5%
-
Big Yards Rate
39.0%
39.5%
-
Yards Per Play
5.9
5.9
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.0%
1.1%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
29.7
28.7
-
Run Ratio
48.6%
36.9%
-
Starting Field Pos
32.1
26.7
-
Game Control
4.9
-4.9
Pass
-
Pass Plays
35.0
35.4
-
Succ Pass Plays
53.8%
51.4%
-
Sack Rate
5.5%
6.4%
-
Int Rate
2.8%
2.4%
-
Deep Pass Rate
17.9%
20.8%
-
Big Pass Yards
37.2%
41.7%
-
NYPP
7.0
7.7
Rush
-
Rush Plays
26.7
24.2
-
RB YPR
5.2
3.9
-
Stuff Rate
19.8%
26.2%
-
Succ Rush Plays
51.1%
41.2%
-
Big Rush Yards
54.7%
60.2%
-
Yards Per Rush
5.3
4.1
Game
-
All Snaps
61.7
59.6
-
Early Down Succ
55.1%
47.4%
-
Succ Rate
51.5%
46.4%
-
Big Yards Rate
45.0%
46.6%
-
Yards Per Play
6.2
6.1
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.5%
1.0%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
29.8
30.0
-
Run Ratio
43.2%
40.8%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.1
26.7
-
Game Control
-0.5
0.5
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
TB |
40 – 48 L |
-7.4 |
73.9% / 64.3% |
2.2% / 0.0% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
9.4 / 14.9 |
69.2% / 43.2% |
23.1% / 18.9% |
3.3 / 3.1 |
59 / 65 |
77.6% / 56.5% |
72.9% / 52.3% |
36.4% / 62.7% |
8.1 / 8.2 |
3.4% / 0.0% |
22.0% / 56.9% |
25.9 / 26.4 |
2 |
CLE |
21 – 18 W |
-2.8 |
63.2% / 48.5% |
7.9% / 9.1% |
0.0% / 3.3% |
5.6 / 7.1 |
37.5% / 33.3% |
25.0% / 14.8% |
2.6 / 3.4 |
62 / 60 |
60.4% / 43.5% |
53.2% / 41.7% |
30.8% / 43.4% |
4.5 / 5.5 |
3.2% / 0.0% |
38.7% / 45.0% |
35.0 / 28.4 |
3 |
@ATL |
43 – 37 W |
0.3 |
56.0% / 63.2% |
2.0% / 7.9% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
7.8 / 9.4 |
53.6% / 21.7% |
14.3% / 43.5% |
5.1 / 2.1 |
78 / 61 |
57.4% / 52.1% |
55.1% / 47.5% |
37.9% / 36.3% |
6.9 / 6.7 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
35.9% / 37.7% |
29.8 / 24.1 |
4 |
@NYG |
33 – 18 W |
3.5 |
42.9% / 56.8% |
2.9% / 6.8% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
6.3 / 5.3 |
48.6% / 50.0% |
8.6% / 18.8% |
4.9 / 4.1 |
70 / 60 |
51.0% / 58.3% |
45.7% / 55.0% |
55.4% / 29.3% |
5.6 / 5.0 |
0.0% / 3.3% |
50.0% / 26.7% |
33.9 / 22.5 |
5 |
WAS |
43 – 19 W |
15.4 |
71.4% / 69.2% |
7.1% / 11.5% |
0.0% / 4.3% |
12.5 / 9.4 |
36.1% / 50.0% |
5.6% / 27.8% |
2.8 / 2.2 |
64 / 44 |
54.9% / 48.8% |
51.6% / 61.4% |
54.3% / 51.2% |
7.0 / 6.4 |
1.6% / 2.3% |
56.3% / 40.9% |
36.2 / 33.4 |
7 |
@BAL |
24 – 23 W |
-1.7 |
45.2% / 46.3% |
3.2% / 2.4% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
6.6 / 6.7 |
50.0% / 52.2% |
12.5% / 30.4% |
3.4 / 3.3 |
71 / 64 |
48.0% / 50.0% |
47.9% / 48.4% |
31.2% / 19.7% |
4.8 / 5.5 |
1.4% / 0.0% |
56.3% / 35.9% |
27.6 / 21.8 |
8 |
@MIN |
30 – 20 W |
5.9 |
62.5% / 56.8% |
0.0% / 9.1% |
4.2% / 2.5% |
6.8 / 7.7 |
48.3% / 40.9% |
13.8% / 31.8% |
3.7 / 3.9 |
53 / 66 |
56.8% / 50.9% |
54.7% / 51.5% |
34.1% / 40.2% |
5.1 / 6.4 |
0.0% / 1.5% |
54.7% / 33.3% |
38.3 / 21.6 |
9 |
LA |
45 – 35 W |
6.9 |
58.3% / 55.0% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
0.0% / 2.5% |
9.6 / 9.8 |
44.4% / 36.8% |
11.1% / 21.1% |
4.0 / 4.8 |
72 / 59 |
51.9% / 53.1% |
51.4% / 49.2% |
36.6% / 48.0% |
6.8 / 8.2 |
1.4% / 0.0% |
50.0% / 32.2% |
31.4 / 30.0 |
10 |
@CIN |
51 – 14 W |
21.4 |
70.4% / 46.2% |
0.0% / 15.4% |
0.0% / 9.1% |
9.8 / 6.7 |
64.0% / 62.5% |
10.0% / 6.3% |
4.9 / 6.9 |
77 / 42 |
72.9% / 61.8% |
66.2% / 52.4% |
45.3% / 61.3% |
6.6 / 6.8 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
64.9% / 38.1% |
38.8 / 25.9 |
11 |
PHI |
48 – 7 W |
20.4 |
68.8% / 36.1% |
0.0% / 8.3% |
0.0% / 9.1% |
11.7 / 3.8 |
44.7% / 58.3% |
26.3% / 25.0% |
4.6 / 4.8 |
70 / 48 |
57.1% / 47.2% |
55.7% / 41.7% |
56.5% / 14.3% |
7.8 / 4.1 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
54.3% / 25.0% |
27.2 / 25.1 |
12 |
ATL |
31 – 17 W |
11.9 |
62.5% / 49.1% |
8.3% / 11.3% |
4.5% / 2.1% |
6.8 / 6.4 |
51.4% / 37.5% |
8.6% / 43.8% |
4.4 / 1.6 |
59 / 69 |
68.3% / 45.8% |
55.9% / 46.4% |
32.9% / 42.3% |
5.4 / 5.3 |
0.0% / 4.3% |
59.3% / 23.2% |
33.5 / 29.6 |
13 |
@DAL |
10 – 13 L |
-6.7 |
30.0% / 48.6% |
6.7% / 20.0% |
3.6% / 0.0% |
3.7 / 5.9 |
57.9% / 37.1% |
21.1% / 20.0% |
3.4 / 2.9 |
49 / 70 |
45.9% / 46.0% |
40.8% / 42.9% |
24.4% / 28.0% |
3.6 / 4.4 |
0.0% / 2.9% |
38.8% / 50.0% |
25.4 / 28.6 |
14 |
@TB |
28 – 14 W |
-3.3 |
59.4% / 38.1% |
3.1% / 9.5% |
3.2% / 2.6% |
6.2 / 4.1 |
40.6% / 43.5% |
28.1% / 26.1% |
3.2 / 4.6 |
64 / 65 |
53.2% / 39.2% |
50.0% / 40.0% |
30.7% / 36.2% |
4.7 / 4.3 |
1.6% / 0.0% |
50.0% / 35.4% |
34.8 / 29.5 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
DAL |
16 – 8 W |
6.7 |
50.0% / 37.1% |
10.7% / 17.1% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
5.2 / 3.9 |
44.7% / 26.1% |
21.1% / 17.4% |
3.9 / 4.1 |
66 / 58 |
58.7% / 38.6% |
47.0% / 32.8% |
28.7% / 22.7% |
4.5 / 4.0 |
1.5% / 1.7% |
57.6% / 39.7% |
38.1 / 21.4 |
2 |
@ATL |
24 – 31 L |
-5.0 |
53.2% / 67.9% |
4.3% / 0.0% |
2.2% / 3.6% |
6.8 / 9.7 |
66.7% / 50.0% |
11.1% / 31.3% |
6.7 / 5.3 |
65 / 60 |
58.5% / 59.2% |
56.9% / 58.3% |
44.4% / 55.9% |
6.8 / 7.4 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
27.7% / 53.3% |
19.5 / 26.2 |
3 |
CIN |
31 – 21 W |
4.5 |
40.0% / 53.2% |
4.0% / 4.3% |
0.0% / 8.9% |
5.9 / 7.0 |
47.6% / 53.8% |
21.4% / 23.1% |
5.5 / 5.1 |
67 / 60 |
46.2% / 56.0% |
44.8% / 53.3% |
54.8% / 58.1% |
5.6 / 6.6 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
62.7% / 21.7% |
30.5 / 23.5 |
5 |
NYG |
33 – 31 W |
5.4 |
76.2% / 75.0% |
4.8% / 4.2% |
10.0% / 8.7% |
11.0 / 15.9 |
40.6% / 25.0% |
28.1% / 43.8% |
3.7 / 3.1 |
53 / 40 |
47.1% / 46.7% |
54.7% / 55.0% |
52.7% / 59.3% |
6.6 / 10.8 |
0.0% / 2.5% |
60.4% / 40.0% |
28.5 / 30.5 |
6 |
@WAS |
17 – 23 L |
-9.4 |
53.7% / 35.9% |
2.4% / 7.7% |
2.5% / 0.0% |
6.6 / 4.0 |
47.4% / 51.7% |
26.3% / 10.3% |
4.3 / 4.6 |
60 / 68 |
58.3% / 43.8% |
51.7% / 42.6% |
25.9% / 36.3% |
5.9 / 4.3 |
3.3% / 0.0% |
31.7% / 42.6% |
20.3 / 33.7 |
7 |
@PHI |
21 – 17 W |
-6.8 |
51.2% / 51.2% |
4.9% / 9.8% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
6.1 / 6.9 |
61.1% / 54.2% |
16.7% / 25.0% |
6.8 / 2.4 |
59 / 65 |
57.8% / 57.1% |
54.2% / 52.3% |
50.0% / 37.7% |
6.3 / 5.3 |
0.0% / 1.5% |
30.5% / 36.9% |
26.3 / 19.8 |
8 |
BAL |
36 – 21 W |
10.2 |
60.0% / 45.7% |
0.0% / 4.3% |
0.0% / 4.5% |
7.7 / 4.9 |
31.4% / 77.8% |
20.0% / 16.7% |
4.5 / 5.6 |
65 / 64 |
47.9% / 56.0% |
44.6% / 54.7% |
26.3% / 26.2% |
6.0 / 5.1 |
0.0% / 1.6% |
53.8% / 28.1% |
37.5 / 23.0 |
9 |
TB |
42 – 28 W |
14.2 |
55.6% / 47.7% |
7.4% / 6.8% |
0.0% / 4.9% |
8.4 / 5.0 |
48.6% / 23.8% |
11.4% / 23.8% |
5.2 / 3.9 |
62 / 65 |
62.2% / 39.2% |
51.6% / 40.0% |
56.0% / 49.5% |
6.6 / 4.6 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
56.5% / 32.3% |
34.8 / 24.6 |
10 |
@PIT |
21 – 52 L |
-20.4 |
50.0% / 67.9% |
14.7% / 3.6% |
3.4% / 0.0% |
4.3 / 11.4 |
50.0% / 41.9% |
18.2% / 22.6% |
4.3 / 4.5 |
56 / 59 |
52.3% / 52.2% |
50.0% / 54.2% |
37.6% / 52.8% |
4.3 / 7.8 |
1.8% / 0.0% |
39.3% / 52.5% |
24.9 / 30.1 |
11 |
@DET |
19 – 20 L |
-1.3 |
53.7% / 39.5% |
7.3% / 2.6% |
2.6% / 0.0% |
8.1 / 5.7 |
56.3% / 34.5% |
18.8% / 31.0% |
3.5 / 3.3 |
57 / 67 |
56.5% / 42.0% |
54.4% / 37.3% |
51.4% / 37.9% |
6.8 / 4.6 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
28.1% / 43.3% |
16.4 / 31.9 |
12 |
SEA |
27 – 30 L |
1.6 |
66.7% / 59.4% |
0.0% / 6.3% |
3.3% / 0.0% |
8.5 / 10.1 |
59.3% / 25.8% |
25.9% / 25.8% |
8.1 / 2.5 |
57 / 63 |
68.1% / 44.2% |
63.2% / 42.9% |
57.6% / 60.2% |
8.4 / 6.3 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
47.4% / 49.2% |
29.3 / 22.4 |
13 |
@TB |
17 – 24 L |
-6.2 |
47.8% / 50.0% |
8.7% / 11.8% |
9.5% / 0.0% |
6.0 / 6.5 |
55.0% / 36.0% |
15.0% / 40.0% |
8.5 / 3.8 |
66 / 59 |
54.5% / 43.5% |
50.0% / 44.1% |
54.2% / 41.6% |
6.7 / 5.3 |
0.0% / 1.7% |
30.3% / 42.4% |
21.3 / 35.2 |
14 |
@CLE |
20 – 26 L |
0.4 |
40.9% / 37.5% |
2.3% / 4.2% |
2.3% / 0.0% |
6.8 / 9.7 |
56.0% / 34.8% |
24.0% / 30.4% |
3.8 / 5.1 |
69 / 47 |
48.1% / 38.2% |
46.4% / 36.2% |
45.3% / 68.0% |
5.7 / 7.4 |
0.0% / 4.3% |
36.2% / 48.9% |
37.3 / 25.2 |