New Orleans Saints @

Carolina Panthers

Mon, Dec 17
5:15 PM Pacific
Rotation: 331
Odds: Carolina Panthers +6.5, Total: 51.5

Game Analysis

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Lean – Under (51.5) – New Orleans (-6) vs CAROLINA

New Orleans defeated Carolina three times last season while topping 30 points in each contest because Ron Rivera’s defense plays right into the hands of Drew Brees. The Panthers are one of the heaviest blitzing teams in the league and Drew Brees is averaging 8.7 yards per attempt with 11 touchdowns and 1 interception facing the blitz this season. Brees has been consistently better versus the blitz than a standard pass rush throughout his career and I expect him to have another solid performance. Michael Thomas is gaining 2.87 yards per route run (2nd) and has favorable matchups on the outside against Donte Jackson and James Bradberry, who both rank in the bottom 10 in yards allowed per cover snap.

The Pro Bowl wide receiver will need to take advantage as New Orleans’ talented backfield will probably be limited. The Saints target their running backs 2nd-most in the league (30%) and they have the 9th-highest adjusted rush rate with Mark Ingram in the lineup. However, Luke Keuchly is a nightmare for opposing running backs, surrendering just 0.56 yards per cover snap (2nd) and recording a 13.0% run stop rate (1st). Alvin Kamara and Ingram are likely in line for mediocre afternoons but the Saints have provent that they can find ways to score against the Panthers and targeting Thomas more often can make up for the likely lack of success from the running backs.

On the other side of the ball, the Saints’ best pass rushers also have unfavorable matchups. Coming off his best game of the season, Sheldon Rankins now rates 5th among interior defensive linemen in pass rush efficiency, but he should be limited by Pro Bowl guard Trai Turner, and Cameron Jordan, who’s recorded 12 sacks this year (tied-6th), will find it difficult facing Taylor Moton, who ranks 8th in pass blocking efficiency. Still, I’m not expecting too much from Carolina’s passing attack as Cam Newton might be playing with an injury. Newton has been pulled for a couple hail-Mary throws in the last 2 games and now there’s talk about him needing shoulder surgery. To make matters worse, Newton is without his most reliable target in Greg Olsen for the rest of the season. Newton has targeted backup tight end Ian Thomas 16 times in the last 2 weeks but he’s adding about 0.4 points less per target than Olsen did and the Saints are one of four teams allowing less than 6 yards per target to opposing tight ends. Overall, we’re downgrading the Panthers offense about a point.

Our model favors New Orleans by 6.3 with a predicted total of 49.1.  I have no opinion on the side but I do like the under. Not only is there some value towards the under based on the math model but this game applies to a 710-512-16 Under situation that is 51-28 Under when it applies to the Monday night game.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Saints
  • Panthers
NOR
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 33.3 37.4
  • Succ Pass Plays 58.8% 52.2%
  • Sack Rate 3.3% 8.6%
  • Int Rate 1.2% 2.7%
  • Deep Pass Rate 17.0% 19.5%
  • Big Pass Yards 41.5% 39.2%
  • NYPP 7.9 7.5



Rush


  • Rush Plays 31.9 22.1
  • RB YPR 3.8 3.2
  • Stuff Rate 16.0% 25.2%
  • Succ Rush Plays 49.7% 43.6%
  • Big Rush Yards 33.3% 36.0%
  • Yards Per Rush 3.9 3.7




Game

  • All Snaps 65.2 59.5
  • Early Down Succ 58.1% 50.3%
  • Succ Rate 53.9% 48.5%
  • Big Yards Rate 39.0% 39.5%
  • Yards Per Play 5.9 5.9
  • Fumble Lost Rate 1.0% 1.1%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 29.7 28.7
  • Run Ratio 48.6% 36.9%
  • Starting Field Pos 32.1 26.7
  • Game Control 4.9 -4.9
 
  • Points 34.4 21.8
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