New Orleans Saints @ Buffalo Bills Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Lean at +3 – BUFFALO (+3/+2.5) over New Orleans

New Orleans has the best offense in the league, gaining 6.4 yards per play, and that success can be attributed to a more balanced approach than they’ve had in years past, as the Saints rank top 10 in both rushing and passing. The Bills defense ranks 9th against the run but have shown signs of vulnerability in pass defense, surrendering 6.3 yppp (20th).

Buffalo finally saw some turnover regression last week losing 3 fumbles in their loss to the Jets. However, the Bills still have by far the best turnover margin in the league and I think their offense is being overrated by the market because they are 16th in scoring while ranking just 26th in yards per play.

My model likes the under in this game but I’m passing for a variety of reasons. Buffalo’s offense is drastically different at home than they are on the road. The Bills home offense ranks 17th in yppl this season while their road offense ranks 31st, a trend continuing from last season where they ranked 5th at home and 27th on the road. Furthermore, Buffalo runs the ball 4th-most in the league and have a good matchup against a New Orleans defense allowing 4.7 ypr (27th). Also, the Saints season defensive numbers are helped slightly by their game against Brett Hundley.

Overall, my ratings favor New Orleans by 5 ½ points but Buffalo’s strong tendency to play better offensively at home leads me to think that 3 would be a fair number in this game. The Bills also apply to a 77-38-2 ATS bounce-back situation that plays on winning teams at home after losings straight up as a road favorite of 3 points or more in their previous game. New Orleans, meanwhile, applies to at 34-100-2 ATS road favorite letdown situation based on their big win over the Bucs last week. I’d lean with Buffalo based on the situations at +3 points.

Team Stats
Game Log

Saints
Bills

NOR

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 35.3 36.5
Succ Pass Plays 53.6% 41.7%
Sack Rate 2.9% 7.8%
Int Rate 1.5% 3.2%
Deep Pass Rate 17.3% 17.6%
Big Pass Yards 48.4% 39.0%
NYPP 7.7 5.6

Rush

Rush Plays 29.8 25.0
RB YPR 4.0 4.3
Stuff Rate 14.9% 26.3%
Succ Rush Plays 44.4% 49.0%
Big Rush Yards 46.1% 47.9%
Yards Per Rush 4.1 4.7

Game

All Snaps 65.0 61.5
Early Down Succ 53.2% 45.8%
Succ Rate 49.5% 44.8%
Big Yards Rate 48.5% 45.8%
Yards Per Play 6.1 5.2
Fumble Lost Rate 1.0% 0.5%
Time Per Play (sec) 29.1 28.1
Run Ratio 45.5% 40.9%
Starting Field Pos 29.2 25.8
Game Control 3.7 -3.7

Points 27.6 19.4

2017 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@MIN	19 – 29 L	-6.6	60.5% / 63.6%	2.6% / 3.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	7.5 / 10.3	28.6% / 27.3%	14.3% / 33.3%	2.9 / 4.0	59 / 66	52.1% / 44.7%	49.2% / 45.5%	29.9% / 68.0%	5.8 / 7.2	0.0% / 0.0%	35.6% / 50.0%	22.4 / 24.9
2	NE	20 – 36 L	-14.2	51.1% / 61.0%	2.2% / 4.9%	0.0% / 0.0%	7.7 / 10.6	47.1% / 51.6%	11.8% / 22.6%	4.8 / 3.8	62 / 72	54.2% / 58.3%	50.0% / 56.9%	48.3% / 53.2%	6.9 / 7.7	0.0% / 0.0%	27.4% / 43.1%	27.9 / 27.5
3	@CAR	34 – 13 W	8.6	46.7% / 43.2%	3.3% / 10.8%	0.0% / 9.1%	7.1 / 4.2	55.6% / 77.3%	25.9% / 4.5%	5.5 / 6.0	57 / 59	51.1% / 57.8%	50.9% / 55.9%	55.5% / 40.3%	6.4 / 4.9	0.0% / 0.0%	47.4% / 37.3%	37.8 / 25.2
4	@MIA	20 – 0 W	5.5	48.8% / 37.5%	2.4% / 12.5%	0.0% / 3.6%	6.4 / 4.0	46.4% / 60.0%	14.3% / 40.0%	3.1 / 3.9	69 / 47	46.3% / 52.6%	47.8% / 44.7%	46.1% / 31.7%	5.0 / 4.0	0.0% / 0.0%	40.6% / 31.9%	28.8 / 27.0
6	DET	52 – 38 W	15.8	45.2% / 35.1%	0.0% / 8.8%	6.5% / 5.8%	6.0 / 4.9	45.9% / 15.8%	13.5% / 36.8%	5.2 / 3.5	68 / 76	50.9% / 24.6%	45.6% / 30.3%	51.7% / 53.3%	5.6 / 4.6	1.5% / 2.6%	54.4% / 25.0%	29.4 / 27.6
7	@GB	26 – 17 W	-2.5	59.0% / 23.1%	2.6% / 3.8%	5.3% / 4.0%	8.3 / 3.0	53.8% / 70.8%	12.8% / 16.7%	4.2 / 7.5	78 / 50	61.4% / 48.7%	56.4% / 46.0%	49.2% / 45.4%	6.3 / 5.2	0.0% / 0.0%	50.0% / 48.0%	30.1 / 18.2
8	CHI	20 – 12 W	7.8	50.0% / 32.4%	6.7% / 5.9%	0.0% / 3.1%	9.5 / 4.4	36.4% / 45.2%	18.2% / 32.3%	3.2 / 5.1	63 / 65	52.1% / 36.2%	42.9% / 38.5%	57.9% / 61.2%	6.2 / 4.7	3.2% / 0.0%	52.4% / 47.7%	30.8 / 24.8
9	TB	30 – 10 W	15.2	67.9% / 37.5%	3.6% / 12.5%	0.0% / 0.0%	9.1 / 3.5	41.7% / 44.0%	8.3% / 24.0%	4.3 / 3.5	64 / 57	57.8% / 43.2%	53.1% / 40.4%	49.3% / 13.0%	6.4 / 3.5	3.1% / 1.8%	56.3% / 43.9%	26.6 / 31.5

2017 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	NYJ	21 – 12 W	3.8	43.3% / 37.5%	6.7% / 2.5%	3.6% / 5.1%	7.3 / 4.4	33.3% / 25.0%	24.4% / 31.3%	4.3 / 2.4	75 / 56	37.7% / 35.9%	37.3% / 33.9%	68.1% / 26.5%	5.5 / 3.8	0.0% / 0.0%	60.0% / 28.6%	25.3 / 29.7
2	@CAR	3 – 9 L	-4.0	35.7% / 50.0%	10.7% / 15.8%	0.0% / 0.0%	3.8 / 4.7	21.7% / 34.5%	39.1% / 37.9%	3.0 / 2.7	51 / 67	30.6% / 44.9%	29.4% / 43.3%	20.5% / 39.1%	3.5 / 3.8	0.0% / 0.0%	45.1% / 43.3%	21.1 / 31.3
3	DEN	26 – 16 W	1.6	50.0% / 37.2%	13.3% / 7.0%	0.0% / 5.0%	6.6 / 5.9	27.0% / 39.1%	27.0% / 26.1%	2.1 / 4.8	67 / 66	42.2% / 38.0%	37.3% / 37.9%	44.4% / 59.3%	4.1 / 5.5	0.0% / 0.0%	55.2% / 34.8%	39.8 / 23.7
4	@ATL	23 – 17 W	2.0	43.5% / 48.8%	13.0% / 2.3%	0.0% / 4.8%	7.1 / 5.6	44.7% / 58.6%	23.7% / 27.6%	3.1 / 5.1	61 / 72	47.7% / 56.1%	44.3% / 52.8%	27.6% / 30.9%	4.6 / 5.4	0.0% / 1.4%	62.3% / 40.3%	21.9 / 25.9
5	@CIN	16 – 20 L	-3.1	32.6% / 43.2%	14.0% / 2.7%	2.7% / 5.6%	3.2 / 8.7	45.8% / 22.6%	20.8% / 22.6%	3.4 / 2.2	67 / 68	38.8% / 37.0%	37.3% / 33.8%	22.2% / 47.7%	3.3 / 5.8	0.0% / 1.5%	35.8% / 45.6%	34.8 / 25.6
7	TB	30 – 27 W	2.0	44.1% / 64.4%	2.9% / 2.2%	0.0% / 2.3%	7.7 / 8.4	42.4% / 32.0%	27.3% / 20.0%	5.2 / 2.8	67 / 70	37.3% / 52.5%	43.3% / 52.9%	65.0% / 26.4%	6.5 / 6.4	1.5% / 2.9%	49.3% / 35.7%	33.7 / 27.0
8	OAK	34 – 14 W	5.5	55.6% / 49.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	0.0% / 4.1%	6.1 / 6.4	45.0% / 42.9%	17.5% / 14.3%	4.2 / 3.9	67 / 63	55.3% / 51.0%	49.3% / 47.6%	48.6% / 28.9%	5.0 / 5.8	0.0% / 3.2%	59.7% / 22.2%	35.7 / 22.4
9	@NYJ	21 – 34 L	-9.6	48.9% / 42.9%	14.9% / 4.8%	0.0% / 0.0%	5.2 / 6.5	27.3% / 38.6%	40.9% / 29.5%	2.9 / 4.5	69 / 65	42.3% / 43.5%	42.0% / 40.0%	31.6% / 55.4%	4.4 / 5.1	4.3% / 0.0%	31.9% / 67.7%	25.2 / 38.0

New Orleans Saints @

Buffalo Bills

Sun, Nov 12

10:00 AM Pacific

Game Analysis