Game Analysis
Lean at +3 – BUFFALO (+3/+2.5) over New Orleans
New Orleans has the best offense in the league, gaining 6.4 yards per play, and that success can be attributed to a more balanced approach than they’ve had in years past, as the Saints rank top 10 in both rushing and passing. The Bills defense ranks 9th against the run but have shown signs of vulnerability in pass defense, surrendering 6.3 yppp (20th).
Buffalo finally saw some turnover regression last week losing 3 fumbles in their loss to the Jets. However, the Bills still have by far the best turnover margin in the league and I think their offense is being overrated by the market because they are 16th in scoring while ranking just 26th in yards per play.
My model likes the under in this game but I’m passing for a variety of reasons. Buffalo’s offense is drastically different at home than they are on the road. The Bills home offense ranks 17th in yppl this season while their road offense ranks 31st, a trend continuing from last season where they ranked 5th at home and 27th on the road. Furthermore, Buffalo runs the ball 4th-most in the league and have a good matchup against a New Orleans defense allowing 4.7 ypr (27th). Also, the Saints season defensive numbers are helped slightly by their game against Brett Hundley.
Overall, my ratings favor New Orleans by 5 ½ points but Buffalo’s strong tendency to play better offensively at home leads me to think that 3 would be a fair number in this game. The Bills also apply to a 77-38-2 ATS bounce-back situation that plays on winning teams at home after losings straight up as a road favorite of 3 points or more in their previous game. New Orleans, meanwhile, applies to at 34-100-2 ATS road favorite letdown situation based on their big win over the Bucs last week. I’d lean with Buffalo based on the situations at +3 points.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
35.3
36.5
-
Succ Pass Plays
53.6%
41.7%
-
Sack Rate
2.9%
7.8%
-
Int Rate
1.5%
3.2%
-
Deep Pass Rate
17.3%
17.6%
-
Big Pass Yards
48.4%
39.0%
-
NYPP
7.7
5.6
Rush
-
Rush Plays
29.8
25.0
-
RB YPR
4.0
4.3
-
Stuff Rate
14.9%
26.3%
-
Succ Rush Plays
44.4%
49.0%
-
Big Rush Yards
46.1%
47.9%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.1
4.7
Game
-
All Snaps
65.0
61.5
-
Early Down Succ
53.2%
45.8%
-
Succ Rate
49.5%
44.8%
-
Big Yards Rate
48.5%
45.8%
-
Yards Per Play
6.1
5.2
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.0%
0.5%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
29.1
28.1
-
Run Ratio
45.5%
40.9%
-
Starting Field Pos
29.2
25.8
-
Game Control
3.7
-3.7
Pass
-
Pass Plays
32.8
39.5
-
Succ Pass Plays
44.2%
46.6%
-
Sack Rate
9.4%
4.7%
-
Int Rate
0.8%
3.4%
-
Deep Pass Rate
19.4%
16.8%
-
Big Pass Yards
41.5%
33.8%
-
NYPP
5.9
6.3
Rush
-
Rush Plays
32.8
26.4
-
RB YPR
3.0
3.5
-
Stuff Rate
27.6%
26.2%
-
Succ Rush Plays
35.9%
36.7%
-
Big Rush Yards
40.5%
46.7%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.5
3.6
Game
-
All Snaps
65.5
65.9
-
Early Down Succ
41.5%
44.9%
-
Succ Rate
40.0%
42.8%
-
Big Yards Rate
41.0%
39.3%
-
Yards Per Play
4.6
5.2
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.7%
1.1%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
26.6
28.2
-
Run Ratio
49.9%
39.8%
-
Starting Field Pos
29.7
27.9
-
Game Control
-0.2
0.2
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
@MIN |
19 – 29 L |
-6.6 |
60.5% / 63.6% |
2.6% / 3.0% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
7.5 / 10.3 |
28.6% / 27.3% |
14.3% / 33.3% |
2.9 / 4.0 |
59 / 66 |
52.1% / 44.7% |
49.2% / 45.5% |
29.9% / 68.0% |
5.8 / 7.2 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
35.6% / 50.0% |
22.4 / 24.9 |
2 |
NE |
20 – 36 L |
-14.2 |
51.1% / 61.0% |
2.2% / 4.9% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
7.7 / 10.6 |
47.1% / 51.6% |
11.8% / 22.6% |
4.8 / 3.8 |
62 / 72 |
54.2% / 58.3% |
50.0% / 56.9% |
48.3% / 53.2% |
6.9 / 7.7 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
27.4% / 43.1% |
27.9 / 27.5 |
3 |
@CAR |
34 – 13 W |
8.6 |
46.7% / 43.2% |
3.3% / 10.8% |
0.0% / 9.1% |
7.1 / 4.2 |
55.6% / 77.3% |
25.9% / 4.5% |
5.5 / 6.0 |
57 / 59 |
51.1% / 57.8% |
50.9% / 55.9% |
55.5% / 40.3% |
6.4 / 4.9 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
47.4% / 37.3% |
37.8 / 25.2 |
4 |
@MIA |
20 – 0 W |
5.5 |
48.8% / 37.5% |
2.4% / 12.5% |
0.0% / 3.6% |
6.4 / 4.0 |
46.4% / 60.0% |
14.3% / 40.0% |
3.1 / 3.9 |
69 / 47 |
46.3% / 52.6% |
47.8% / 44.7% |
46.1% / 31.7% |
5.0 / 4.0 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
40.6% / 31.9% |
28.8 / 27.0 |
6 |
DET |
52 – 38 W |
15.8 |
45.2% / 35.1% |
0.0% / 8.8% |
6.5% / 5.8% |
6.0 / 4.9 |
45.9% / 15.8% |
13.5% / 36.8% |
5.2 / 3.5 |
68 / 76 |
50.9% / 24.6% |
45.6% / 30.3% |
51.7% / 53.3% |
5.6 / 4.6 |
1.5% / 2.6% |
54.4% / 25.0% |
29.4 / 27.6 |
7 |
@GB |
26 – 17 W |
-2.5 |
59.0% / 23.1% |
2.6% / 3.8% |
5.3% / 4.0% |
8.3 / 3.0 |
53.8% / 70.8% |
12.8% / 16.7% |
4.2 / 7.5 |
78 / 50 |
61.4% / 48.7% |
56.4% / 46.0% |
49.2% / 45.4% |
6.3 / 5.2 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
50.0% / 48.0% |
30.1 / 18.2 |
8 |
CHI |
20 – 12 W |
7.8 |
50.0% / 32.4% |
6.7% / 5.9% |
0.0% / 3.1% |
9.5 / 4.4 |
36.4% / 45.2% |
18.2% / 32.3% |
3.2 / 5.1 |
63 / 65 |
52.1% / 36.2% |
42.9% / 38.5% |
57.9% / 61.2% |
6.2 / 4.7 |
3.2% / 0.0% |
52.4% / 47.7% |
30.8 / 24.8 |
9 |
TB |
30 – 10 W |
15.2 |
67.9% / 37.5% |
3.6% / 12.5% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
9.1 / 3.5 |
41.7% / 44.0% |
8.3% / 24.0% |
4.3 / 3.5 |
64 / 57 |
57.8% / 43.2% |
53.1% / 40.4% |
49.3% / 13.0% |
6.4 / 3.5 |
3.1% / 1.8% |
56.3% / 43.9% |
26.6 / 31.5 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
NYJ |
21 – 12 W |
3.8 |
43.3% / 37.5% |
6.7% / 2.5% |
3.6% / 5.1% |
7.3 / 4.4 |
33.3% / 25.0% |
24.4% / 31.3% |
4.3 / 2.4 |
75 / 56 |
37.7% / 35.9% |
37.3% / 33.9% |
68.1% / 26.5% |
5.5 / 3.8 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
60.0% / 28.6% |
25.3 / 29.7 |
2 |
@CAR |
3 – 9 L |
-4.0 |
35.7% / 50.0% |
10.7% / 15.8% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
3.8 / 4.7 |
21.7% / 34.5% |
39.1% / 37.9% |
3.0 / 2.7 |
51 / 67 |
30.6% / 44.9% |
29.4% / 43.3% |
20.5% / 39.1% |
3.5 / 3.8 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
45.1% / 43.3% |
21.1 / 31.3 |
3 |
DEN |
26 – 16 W |
1.6 |
50.0% / 37.2% |
13.3% / 7.0% |
0.0% / 5.0% |
6.6 / 5.9 |
27.0% / 39.1% |
27.0% / 26.1% |
2.1 / 4.8 |
67 / 66 |
42.2% / 38.0% |
37.3% / 37.9% |
44.4% / 59.3% |
4.1 / 5.5 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
55.2% / 34.8% |
39.8 / 23.7 |
4 |
@ATL |
23 – 17 W |
2.0 |
43.5% / 48.8% |
13.0% / 2.3% |
0.0% / 4.8% |
7.1 / 5.6 |
44.7% / 58.6% |
23.7% / 27.6% |
3.1 / 5.1 |
61 / 72 |
47.7% / 56.1% |
44.3% / 52.8% |
27.6% / 30.9% |
4.6 / 5.4 |
0.0% / 1.4% |
62.3% / 40.3% |
21.9 / 25.9 |
5 |
@CIN |
16 – 20 L |
-3.1 |
32.6% / 43.2% |
14.0% / 2.7% |
2.7% / 5.6% |
3.2 / 8.7 |
45.8% / 22.6% |
20.8% / 22.6% |
3.4 / 2.2 |
67 / 68 |
38.8% / 37.0% |
37.3% / 33.8% |
22.2% / 47.7% |
3.3 / 5.8 |
0.0% / 1.5% |
35.8% / 45.6% |
34.8 / 25.6 |
7 |
TB |
30 – 27 W |
2.0 |
44.1% / 64.4% |
2.9% / 2.2% |
0.0% / 2.3% |
7.7 / 8.4 |
42.4% / 32.0% |
27.3% / 20.0% |
5.2 / 2.8 |
67 / 70 |
37.3% / 52.5% |
43.3% / 52.9% |
65.0% / 26.4% |
6.5 / 6.4 |
1.5% / 2.9% |
49.3% / 35.7% |
33.7 / 27.0 |
8 |
OAK |
34 – 14 W |
5.5 |
55.6% / 49.0% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
0.0% / 4.1% |
6.1 / 6.4 |
45.0% / 42.9% |
17.5% / 14.3% |
4.2 / 3.9 |
67 / 63 |
55.3% / 51.0% |
49.3% / 47.6% |
48.6% / 28.9% |
5.0 / 5.8 |
0.0% / 3.2% |
59.7% / 22.2% |
35.7 / 22.4 |
9 |
@NYJ |
21 – 34 L |
-9.6 |
48.9% / 42.9% |
14.9% / 4.8% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
5.2 / 6.5 |
27.3% / 38.6% |
40.9% / 29.5% |
2.9 / 4.5 |
69 / 65 |
42.3% / 43.5% |
42.0% / 40.0% |
31.6% / 55.4% |
4.4 / 5.1 |
4.3% / 0.0% |
31.9% / 67.7% |
25.2 / 38.0 |