Game Analysis
Lean – Under (50) – BALTIMORE (-2.5) vs New Orleans
Last time we saw New Orleans’ offense Drew Brees became the NFL’s all-time passing leader and Baltimore’s defense was last seen recording the highest sack rate dating back to 1965 (42.3%) in last week’s shutout win over Tennessee. I expect the Ravens to have a tougher time getting to the quarterback versus a Saints offensive line ranked 3rd in pass blocking efficiency. Still, so much of the New Orleans offense goes through their backfield and the Ravens do an excellent job of taking running backs away from their opponents. Baltimore is the top-rated rush defense in our numbers and they’re allowing just 2.9 yards per target to opposing running backs, also best in the NFL and less than half the league average. The Saints target their running backs on 33% of passes (2nd-most) and the Redskins, the only other team they’ve played ranked top 10 defending receivers out of the backfield, held Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram to 1.25 yards per route run. This is a matchup of strength versus strength when the Saints have the ball.
The Ravens are unlikely to run the ball as their adjusted passing rate is 4th-highest in the league and New Orleans’ rush defense ranks 7th. Instead, Baltimore will look to exploit a Saints defense surrendering 8.0 yards per pass play (30th) and the Ravens should have success doing so.
Our model favors the Ravens by just 1 point with the Saints coming off a bye but New Orleans applies to a negative 44-84-4 ATS situation. I’ll pass on the side but there is expected to be heavy winds in Baltimore and we project a total of just 46.7 points in this game. I’ll lean Under.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
39.4
33.8
-
Succ Pass Plays
61.5%
60.4%
-
Sack Rate
4.4%
7.1%
-
Int Rate
0.0%
1.5%
-
Deep Pass Rate
14.8%
21.0%
-
Big Pass Yards
46.5%
46.4%
-
NYPP
8.3
9.2
Rush
-
Rush Plays
27.2
24.2
-
RB YPR
3.6
2.7
-
Stuff Rate
15.3%
24.7%
-
Succ Rush Plays
49.0%
39.7%
-
Big Rush Yards
30.3%
36.8%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.8
3.0
Game
-
All Snaps
66.6
58.0
-
Early Down Succ
60.2%
51.9%
-
Succ Rate
55.7%
51.6%
-
Big Yards Rate
43.0%
44.6%
-
Yards Per Play
6.4
6.4
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.6%
1.1%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
29.4
30.2
-
Run Ratio
40.6%
41.4%
-
Starting Field Pos
32.2
27.0
-
Game Control
1.8
-1.8
Pass
-
Pass Plays
41.7
36.8
-
Succ Pass Plays
52.5%
41.4%
-
Sack Rate
4.6%
14.2%
-
Int Rate
1.7%
2.5%
-
Deep Pass Rate
18.8%
20.7%
-
Big Pass Yards
38.5%
41.1%
-
NYPP
7.2
5.1
Rush
-
Rush Plays
30.2
21.3
-
RB YPR
3.2
3.3
-
Stuff Rate
22.6%
31.7%
-
Succ Rush Plays
44.6%
33.8%
-
Big Rush Yards
33.1%
43.7%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.3
3.7
Game
-
All Snaps
71.8
58.2
-
Early Down Succ
45.6%
41.1%
-
Succ Rate
48.9%
39.2%
-
Big Yards Rate
37.5%
44.3%
-
Yards Per Play
5.6
4.6
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.0%
0.3%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.1
29.8
-
Run Ratio
42.3%
36.6%
-
Starting Field Pos
31.5
27.2
-
Game Control
6.3
-6.3
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
TB |
40 – 48 L |
-7.4 |
73.9% / 64.3% |
2.2% / 0.0% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
9.4 / 14.9 |
69.2% / 43.2% |
23.1% / 18.9% |
3.3 / 3.1 |
59 / 65 |
77.6% / 56.5% |
72.9% / 52.3% |
36.4% / 62.7% |
8.1 / 8.2 |
3.4% / 0.0% |
22.0% / 56.9% |
25.9 / 26.4 |
2 |
CLE |
21 – 18 W |
-2.8 |
63.2% / 48.5% |
7.9% / 9.1% |
0.0% / 3.3% |
5.6 / 7.1 |
37.5% / 33.3% |
25.0% / 14.8% |
2.6 / 3.4 |
62 / 60 |
60.4% / 43.5% |
53.2% / 41.7% |
30.8% / 43.4% |
4.5 / 5.5 |
3.2% / 0.0% |
38.7% / 45.0% |
35.0 / 28.4 |
3 |
@ATL |
43 – 37 W |
0.3 |
56.0% / 63.2% |
2.0% / 7.9% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
7.8 / 9.4 |
53.6% / 21.7% |
14.3% / 43.5% |
5.1 / 2.1 |
78 / 61 |
57.4% / 52.1% |
55.1% / 47.5% |
37.9% / 36.3% |
6.9 / 6.7 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
35.9% / 37.7% |
29.8 / 24.1 |
4 |
@NYG |
33 – 18 W |
3.5 |
42.9% / 56.8% |
2.9% / 6.8% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
6.3 / 5.3 |
48.6% / 50.0% |
8.6% / 18.8% |
4.9 / 4.1 |
70 / 60 |
51.0% / 58.3% |
45.7% / 55.0% |
55.4% / 29.3% |
5.6 / 5.0 |
0.0% / 3.3% |
50.0% / 26.7% |
33.9 / 22.5 |
5 |
WAS |
43 – 19 W |
15.4 |
71.4% / 69.2% |
7.1% / 11.5% |
0.0% / 4.3% |
12.5 / 9.4 |
36.1% / 50.0% |
5.6% / 27.8% |
2.8 / 2.2 |
64 / 44 |
54.9% / 48.8% |
51.6% / 61.4% |
54.3% / 51.2% |
7.0 / 6.4 |
1.6% / 2.3% |
56.3% / 40.9% |
36.2 / 33.4 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
BUF |
47 – 3 W |
25.9 |
42.5% / 20.5% |
5.0% / 15.4% |
0.0% / 6.1% |
6.3 / 1.8 |
44.1% / 22.7% |
29.4% / 31.8% |
3.4 / 3.8 |
74 / 61 |
43.3% / 24.4% |
43.2% / 21.3% |
43.1% / 39.9% |
5.0 / 2.5 |
1.4% / 0.0% |
45.9% / 36.1% |
41.3 / 30.5 |
2 |
@CIN |
23 – 34 L |
-11.8 |
49.1% / 45.2% |
7.0% / 0.0% |
3.8% / 0.0% |
6.3 / 6.3 |
50.0% / 42.9% |
18.2% / 28.6% |
3.0 / 3.9 |
79 / 70 |
50.0% / 45.6% |
49.4% / 44.3% |
35.5% / 43.7% |
5.4 / 5.3 |
1.3% / 0.0% |
27.8% / 40.0% |
22.6 / 36.3 |
3 |
DEN |
27 – 14 W |
4.7 |
48.8% / 45.9% |
4.9% / 8.1% |
0.0% / 2.9% |
6.5 / 4.7 |
32.3% / 45.8% |
19.4% / 33.3% |
2.6 / 5.0 |
72 / 61 |
43.1% / 47.8% |
41.7% / 45.9% |
33.9% / 39.9% |
4.8 / 4.8 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
43.1% / 39.3% |
27.2 / 33.4 |
4 |
@PIT |
26 – 14 W |
6.3 |
47.7% / 47.9% |
4.5% / 2.1% |
0.0% / 2.1% |
8.1 / 5.5 |
48.5% / 16.7% |
9.1% / 25.0% |
3.0 / 1.7 |
77 / 60 |
51.9% / 50.0% |
48.1% / 41.7% |
32.7% / 42.1% |
5.9 / 4.8 |
1.3% / 1.7% |
42.9% / 20.0% |
36.8 / 21.2 |
5 |
@CLE |
9 – 12 L |
-0.7 |
80.6% / 62.1% |
6.5% / 17.2% |
3.4% / 4.2% |
9.5 / 10.5 |
48.0% / 46.4% |
32.0% / 35.7% |
4.6 / 4.0 |
56 / 57 |
47.8% / 45.5% |
66.1% / 54.4% |
35.1% / 57.7% |
7.3 / 7.3 |
1.8% / 0.0% |
44.6% / 49.1% |
31.4 / 19.7 |
6 |
@TEN |
21 – 0 W |
13.2 |
45.9% / 26.9% |
0.0% / 42.3% |
2.7% / 0.0% |
6.4 / 2.0 |
44.4% / 28.6% |
27.8% / 35.7% |
3.4 / 3.9 |
73 / 40 |
37.7% / 33.3% |
45.2% / 27.5% |
44.5% / 42.5% |
5.0 / 2.7 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
49.3% / 35.0% |
29.9 / 21.9 |