New Orleans Saints @

Baltimore Ravens

Sun, Oct 21
1:05 PM Pacific
Rotation: 469
Odds: Baltimore Ravens -2.5, Total: 50

Game Analysis

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Lean – Under (50) – BALTIMORE (-2.5) vs New Orleans

Last time we saw New Orleans’ offense Drew Brees became the NFL’s all-time passing leader and Baltimore’s defense was last seen recording the highest sack rate dating back to 1965 (42.3%) in last week’s shutout win over Tennessee. I expect the Ravens to have a tougher time getting to the quarterback versus a Saints offensive line ranked 3rd in pass blocking efficiency. Still, so much of the New Orleans offense goes through their backfield and the Ravens do an excellent job of taking running backs away from their opponents. Baltimore is the top-rated rush defense in our numbers and they’re allowing just 2.9 yards per target to opposing running backs, also best in the NFL and less than half the league average. The Saints target their running backs on 33% of passes (2nd-most) and the Redskins, the only other team they’ve played ranked top 10 defending receivers out of the backfield, held Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram to 1.25 yards per route run. This is a matchup of strength versus strength when the Saints have the ball.

The Ravens are unlikely to run the ball as their adjusted passing rate is 4th-highest in the league and New Orleans’ rush defense ranks 7th. Instead, Baltimore will look to exploit a Saints defense surrendering 8.0 yards per pass play (30th) and the Ravens should have success doing so.

Our model favors the Ravens by just 1 point with the Saints coming off a bye but New Orleans applies to a negative 44-84-4 ATS situation. I’ll pass on the side but there is expected to be heavy winds in Baltimore and we project a total of just 46.7 points in this game. I’ll lean Under.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Saints
  • Ravens
NOR
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 39.4 33.8
  • Succ Pass Plays 61.5% 60.4%
  • Sack Rate 4.4% 7.1%
  • Int Rate 0.0% 1.5%
  • Deep Pass Rate 14.8% 21.0%
  • Big Pass Yards 46.5% 46.4%
  • NYPP 8.3 9.2



Rush


  • Rush Plays 27.2 24.2
  • RB YPR 3.6 2.7
  • Stuff Rate 15.3% 24.7%
  • Succ Rush Plays 49.0% 39.7%
  • Big Rush Yards 30.3% 36.8%
  • Yards Per Rush 3.8 3.0




Game

  • All Snaps 66.6 58.0
  • Early Down Succ 60.2% 51.9%
  • Succ Rate 55.7% 51.6%
  • Big Yards Rate 43.0% 44.6%
  • Yards Per Play 6.4 6.4
  • Fumble Lost Rate 1.6% 1.1%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 29.4 30.2
  • Run Ratio 40.6% 41.4%
  • Starting Field Pos 32.2 27.0
  • Game Control 1.8 -1.8
 
  • Points 36.0 28.0
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