Game Analysis

ATLANTA (-3.5) vs New Orleans

• The Falcons are rightfully favored, and I think this is the week Tyler Shough comes back down to earth, as the Saints will be without WR Chris Olave. New Orleans is averaging 0.08 EPA/play more and 1.3 yppl more with Olave on the field compared to off the field this year.
• The Saints already rank 30th relatively against single-high coverages compared to two-high, and Shough will struggle as Atlanta’s defense has a 55% single-high safety rate (2nd-highest).
• Falcons RB Bijan Robinson had 229 scrimmage yards on 30 touches last Monday night.
• Robinson is averaging a league-high 1.99 yards per route run, and Kirk Cousins will feature him as a receiver because New Orleans is allowing 0.15 EPA/target to opposing running backs (25th).
• However, Robinson will be shut down on the ground as the Saints are allowing -0.12 EPA/rush (3rd).
• Our model makes Atlanta a 6.4-point favorite, with a predicted total of 43.4 points, but New Orleans applies to a 96-47-4 ATS final game situation. I used New Orleans +3.5 in my pool but would have used Atlanta at -3 or less.