Game Analysis

Lean – New Orleans (pk) over ATLANTA

· It’s looking like Derek Carr will clear concussion protocol and start this game and the matchup suits his underneath passing more so than the downfield shots we would’ve seen from Jameis Winston.

· Saints WR Chris Olave has a league-high 26 targets with 20+ air yards but he will be limited by CB Jeff Okudah, who is conceding 0.72 yards per cover snap (14th).

· The Falcons are allowing 0.17 EPA/target to running backs (29th) and they will struggle against RB Alvin Kamara, who is averaging 1.78 yards per route run (2nd).

· Atlanta’s defense will likely have DT David Onyemata back on the field after he missed the Cardinals game before the bye. Onyemata has a 10.8% run-stop rate (11th) and ranks 8th in pass-rushing efficiency.

· New Orleans will be without top cornerback Marshon Lattimore, providing a favorable matchup for WR Drake London, whose 56% success rate ranks 20th.

· Desmond Ridder should look deep for London with time to throw, as the screen game to Falcons RB Bijan Robinson should be limited. Atlanta’s offense is targeting running backs on 21.9% of passes (9th-most) but the Saints are allowing only a 33% pass success rate to running backs (2nd).

· Falcons RT Kaleb McGary and LT Jake Matthews rank 5th and 19th respectively in pass blocking efficiency and they will contain edge defenders Cameron Jordan and Carl Granderson, who have combined for 83 pressures.

· Our model makes New Orleans a 1.8-point favorite with a predicted total of 41.7 points.