Game Analysis
Strong Opinion – Under (53*/51.5) – ATLANTA vs New Orleans
Lean – Atlanta (pick)
The Falcons are allowing just 5.5 yards per pass play (3rd) but their rush defense ranks 26th according to my metrics. Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara lead a New Orleans ground game averaging 5.0 yards per rush (1st) and I expect the Saints to emphasize their advantage in this matchup. While it’s likely that the Saints will run the ball well it’s still better for the under for a team to run the ball well than to throw the ball since running eats up the clock.
New Orleans cornerback Marshon Lattimore will likely return on Thursday night after missing last week with an ankle injury. Lattimore is allowing only 0.74 yards per cover snap, 7th-best among cornerbacks, and I expect him to make things difficult for Julio Jones, who struggled last week against a tough corner in the Falcons’ loss to Minnesota (just 24 yards on 6 targets). Atlanta’s offensive line will be weakened by the absence of Andy Levitre, who ranks 10th among guards allowing a pressure on just 3.1% of passing plays.
I expect a low scoring game with both offenses utilizing the run early and often. Divisional games with totals of 39 points or higher are 680-493-16 Under in the 2nd half of the season since 1980 if the home team averages less than 27 points per game (even better 153-88-2 Under since 2012). The Under is a Strong Opinion at 51.5 points or higher.
Prior to last week’s results the line for this game was Falcons -2.5 and Atlanta applies to a 116-54-2 ATS situation that is based on last week’s upset loss. I will lean with Atlanta at -1 or better because I believe there’s been some slight market overreaction in addition to the favorable bounce-back situation.
*Note: The total on this game was at 53 points when I released it to my subscribers but our model still likes the under at 51.5 points.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
35.0
36.2
-
Succ Pass Plays
51.5%
42.2%
-
Sack Rate
3.5%
7.5%
-
Int Rate
1.2%
2.6%
-
Deep Pass Rate
17.6%
19.0%
-
Big Pass Yards
48.1%
39.9%
-
NYPP
7.6
5.9
Rush
-
Rush Plays
30.1
24.9
-
RB YPR
4.8
4.1
-
Stuff Rate
15.7%
25.7%
-
Succ Rush Plays
46.4%
47.3%
-
Big Rush Yards
54.0%
49.4%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.8
4.6
Game
-
All Snaps
65.1
61.1
-
Early Down Succ
53.5%
47.2%
-
Succ Rate
49.5%
44.5%
-
Big Yards Rate
50.6%
45.7%
-
Yards Per Play
6.3
5.3
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.9%
0.5%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
29.3
28.0
-
Run Ratio
45.5%
40.8%
-
Starting Field Pos
29.3
25.5
-
Game Control
3.6
-3.6
Pass
-
Pass Plays
33.8
37.5
-
Succ Pass Plays
51.4%
46.2%
-
Sack Rate
3.9%
7.3%
-
Int Rate
1.9%
0.6%
-
Deep Pass Rate
20.7%
14.9%
-
Big Pass Yards
36.3%
28.6%
-
NYPP
7.4
5.6
Rush
-
Rush Plays
26.5
27.1
-
RB YPR
4.3
3.7
-
Stuff Rate
25.1%
22.1%
-
Succ Rush Plays
45.1%
47.7%
-
Big Rush Yards
48.1%
38.9%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.4
4.3
Game
-
All Snaps
60.3
64.6
-
Early Down Succ
50.6%
49.4%
-
Succ Rate
48.2%
46.7%
-
Big Yards Rate
41.2%
33.1%
-
Yards Per Play
6.1
5.0
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.7%
0.9%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.9
28.9
-
Run Ratio
43.9%
42.1%
-
Starting Field Pos
25.0
29.5
-
Game Control
2.9
-2.9
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
@MIN |
19 – 29 L |
-6.6 |
60.5% / 63.6% |
2.6% / 3.0% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
7.5 / 10.3 |
28.6% / 27.3% |
14.3% / 33.3% |
2.9 / 4.0 |
59 / 66 |
52.1% / 44.7% |
49.2% / 45.5% |
29.9% / 68.0% |
5.8 / 7.2 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
35.6% / 50.0% |
22.4 / 24.9 |
2 |
NE |
20 – 36 L |
-14.2 |
51.1% / 61.0% |
2.2% / 4.9% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
7.7 / 10.6 |
47.1% / 51.6% |
11.8% / 22.6% |
4.8 / 3.8 |
62 / 72 |
54.2% / 58.3% |
50.0% / 56.9% |
48.3% / 53.2% |
6.9 / 7.7 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
27.4% / 43.1% |
27.9 / 27.5 |
3 |
@CAR |
34 – 13 W |
8.6 |
46.7% / 43.2% |
3.3% / 10.8% |
0.0% / 9.1% |
7.1 / 4.2 |
55.6% / 77.3% |
25.9% / 4.5% |
5.5 / 6.0 |
57 / 59 |
51.1% / 57.8% |
50.9% / 55.9% |
55.5% / 40.3% |
6.4 / 4.9 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
47.4% / 37.3% |
37.8 / 25.2 |
4 |
@MIA |
20 – 0 W |
5.5 |
48.8% / 37.5% |
2.4% / 12.5% |
0.0% / 3.6% |
6.4 / 4.0 |
46.4% / 60.0% |
14.3% / 40.0% |
3.1 / 3.9 |
69 / 47 |
46.3% / 52.6% |
47.8% / 44.7% |
46.1% / 31.7% |
5.0 / 4.0 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
40.6% / 31.9% |
28.8 / 27.0 |
6 |
DET |
52 – 38 W |
15.8 |
45.2% / 35.1% |
0.0% / 8.8% |
6.5% / 5.8% |
6.0 / 4.9 |
45.9% / 15.8% |
13.5% / 36.8% |
5.2 / 3.5 |
68 / 76 |
50.9% / 24.6% |
45.6% / 30.3% |
51.7% / 53.3% |
5.6 / 4.6 |
1.5% / 2.6% |
54.4% / 25.0% |
29.4 / 27.6 |
7 |
@GB |
26 – 17 W |
-2.5 |
59.0% / 23.1% |
2.6% / 3.8% |
5.3% / 4.0% |
8.3 / 3.0 |
53.8% / 70.8% |
12.8% / 16.7% |
4.2 / 7.5 |
78 / 50 |
61.4% / 48.7% |
56.4% / 46.0% |
49.2% / 45.4% |
6.3 / 5.2 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
50.0% / 48.0% |
30.1 / 18.2 |
8 |
CHI |
20 – 12 W |
7.8 |
50.0% / 32.4% |
6.7% / 5.9% |
0.0% / 3.1% |
9.5 / 4.4 |
36.4% / 45.2% |
18.2% / 32.3% |
3.2 / 5.1 |
63 / 65 |
52.1% / 36.2% |
42.9% / 38.5% |
57.9% / 61.2% |
6.2 / 4.7 |
3.2% / 0.0% |
52.4% / 47.7% |
30.8 / 24.8 |
9 |
TB |
30 – 10 W |
15.2 |
67.9% / 37.5% |
3.6% / 12.5% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
9.1 / 3.5 |
41.7% / 44.0% |
8.3% / 24.0% |
4.3 / 3.5 |
64 / 57 |
57.8% / 43.2% |
53.1% / 40.4% |
49.3% / 13.0% |
6.4 / 3.5 |
3.1% / 1.8% |
56.3% / 43.9% |
26.6 / 31.5 |
10 |
@BUF |
47 – 10 W |
17.6 |
44.0% / 40.0% |
0.0% / 6.7% |
0.0% / 3.6% |
7.4 / 4.3 |
62.7% / 40.0% |
11.8% / 46.7% |
5.9 / 4.6 |
76 / 45 |
62.5% / 48.5% |
56.6% / 40.0% |
56.4% / 35.4% |
6.4 / 4.4 |
1.3% / 0.0% |
67.1% / 33.3% |
39.7 / 21.9 |
11 |
WAS |
34 – 31 W |
-5.7 |
57.1% / 47.1% |
4.8% / 5.9% |
2.5% / 0.0% |
8.9 / 8.8 |
60.9% / 51.5% |
17.4% / 12.1% |
7.0 / 4.7 |
65 / 67 |
62.3% / 50.9% |
58.5% / 49.3% |
54.2% / 47.8% |
8.2 / 6.8 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
35.4% / 49.3% |
24.3 / 23.4 |
12 |
@LA |
20 – 26 L |
-7.2 |
45.7% / 45.8% |
8.6% / 8.3% |
0.0% / 2.3% |
6.4 / 6.8 |
47.1% / 32.1% |
11.8% / 21.4% |
7.2 / 3.3 |
52 / 76 |
52.6% / 49.1% |
46.2% / 40.8% |
51.2% / 61.0% |
6.7 / 5.5 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
32.7% / 36.8% |
21.2 / 26.2 |
13 |
CAR |
31 – 21 W |
8.7 |
41.7% / 40.0% |
5.6% / 6.7% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
7.0 / 5.6 |
31.3% / 52.2% |
28.1% / 17.4% |
4.7 / 4.9 |
68 / 53 |
39.1% / 51.2% |
36.8% / 45.3% |
57.6% / 38.4% |
5.9 / 5.3 |
1.5% / 1.9% |
47.1% / 43.4% |
32.1 / 27.8 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
@CHI |
23 – 17 W |
2.5 |
50.0% / 31.8% |
6.3% / 9.1% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
9.6 / 4.0 |
32.0% / 52.6% |
24.0% / 15.8% |
2.6 / 6.6 |
57 / 63 |
45.2% / 37.5% |
42.1% / 38.1% |
49.7% / 31.2% |
6.6 / 4.8 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
43.9% / 30.2% |
18.3 / 28.1 |
2 |
GB |
34 – 23 W |
12.4 |
51.6% / 50.9% |
9.7% / 5.7% |
0.0% / 2.0% |
7.2 / 5.8 |
55.6% / 56.3% |
18.5% / 25.0% |
5.2 / 3.8 |
58 / 69 |
55.3% / 53.8% |
53.4% / 52.2% |
50.0% / 24.2% |
6.3 / 5.3 |
0.0% / 1.4% |
46.6% / 23.2% |
26.7 / 22.1 |
3 |
@DET |
30 – 26 W |
6.3 |
48.6% / 40.4% |
5.4% / 4.3% |
8.6% / 0.0% |
7.5 / 5.4 |
48.3% / 31.6% |
13.8% / 26.3% |
5.2 / 3.7 |
66 / 66 |
50.9% / 41.5% |
48.5% / 37.9% |
34.7% / 31.8% |
6.5 / 4.9 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
43.9% / 28.8% |
27.8 / 29.7 |
4 |
BUF |
17 – 23 L |
-2.0 |
48.8% / 43.5% |
2.3% / 13.0% |
4.8% / 0.0% |
5.6 / 7.1 |
58.6% / 44.7% |
27.6% / 23.7% |
5.1 / 3.1 |
72 / 61 |
56.1% / 47.7% |
52.8% / 44.3% |
30.9% / 27.6% |
5.4 / 4.6 |
1.4% / 0.0% |
40.3% / 62.3% |
25.9 / 21.9 |
6 |
MIA |
17 – 20 L |
7.7 |
50.0% / 45.5% |
5.6% / 0.0% |
2.9% / 3.0% |
6.6 / 4.6 |
47.4% / 46.9% |
42.1% / 25.0% |
5.3 / 4.3 |
55 / 65 |
48.8% / 47.9% |
49.1% / 46.2% |
40.1% / 23.8% |
6.2 / 4.5 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
34.5% / 49.2% |
20.7 / 30.2 |
7 |
@NE |
7 – 23 L |
-11.4 |
58.8% / 48.4% |
2.9% / 6.5% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
6.6 / 7.8 |
54.5% / 56.4% |
18.2% / 12.8% |
5.5 / 4.2 |
56 / 70 |
65.9% / 57.7% |
57.1% / 52.9% |
26.8% / 38.4% |
6.1 / 5.8 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
39.3% / 55.7% |
21.9 / 28.8 |
8 |
@NYJ |
25 – 20 W |
-1.1 |
50.0% / 51.4% |
3.3% / 8.6% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
8.2 / 6.7 |
37.5% / 22.7% |
28.1% / 36.4% |
4.4 / 2.0 |
62 / 57 |
45.8% / 41.5% |
43.5% / 40.4% |
53.1% / 40.1% |
6.2 / 4.9 |
3.2% / 1.8% |
51.6% / 38.6% |
26.1 / 36.9 |
9 |
@CAR |
17 – 20 L |
-0.4 |
47.5% / 40.0% |
5.0% / 4.0% |
2.6% / 0.0% |
7.6 / 5.2 |
36.8% / 50.0% |
26.3% / 21.1% |
2.8 / 5.3 |
59 / 63 |
52.4% / 50.0% |
44.1% / 46.0% |
39.6% / 43.3% |
6.0 / 5.2 |
0.0% / 3.2% |
32.2% / 60.3% |
20.5 / 35.8 |
10 |
DAL |
27 – 7 W |
4.8 |
63.3% / 40.5% |
3.3% / 21.6% |
3.4% / 0.0% |
6.8 / 3.4 |
29.4% / 45.5% |
44.1% / 22.7% |
3.9 / 4.9 |
64 / 59 |
44.9% / 42.6% |
45.3% / 42.4% |
46.7% / 55.4% |
5.3 / 3.9 |
0.0% / 3.4% |
53.1% / 37.3% |
29.9 / 33.3 |
11 |
@SEA |
34 – 31 W |
8.5 |
53.6% / 48.9% |
3.6% / 6.7% |
0.0% / 2.4% |
6.8 / 5.0 |
34.4% / 65.2% |
21.9% / 21.7% |
2.8 / 5.9 |
60 / 68 |
40.5% / 57.4% |
43.3% / 54.4% |
37.7% / 46.7% |
4.7 / 5.3 |
1.7% / 1.5% |
53.3% / 33.8% |
33.0 / 36.4 |
12 |
TB |
34 – 20 W |
8.2 |
60.0% / 51.1% |
0.0% / 2.2% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
10.5 / 6.2 |
60.7% / 56.5% |
14.3% / 17.4% |
5.3 / 4.1 |
63 / 68 |
55.1% / 56.4% |
60.3% / 52.9% |
61.4% / 18.8% |
8.2 / 5.5 |
1.6% / 0.0% |
44.4% / 33.8% |
26.3 / 25.0 |
13 |
MIN |
9 – 14 L |
-0.7 |
34.5% / 62.5% |
0.0% / 6.3% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
6.0 / 6.5 |
45.5% / 44.1% |
22.7% / 17.6% |
4.6 / 3.2 |
51 / 66 |
46.2% / 59.2% |
39.2% / 53.0% |
23.3% / 16.5% |
5.4 / 4.8 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
43.1% / 51.5% |
22.4 / 25.9 |