New England Patriots @

Washington Redskins

Sun, Oct 6
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 461
Odds: Washington Redskins +15, Total: 42

Game Analysis

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Lean – WASHINGTON (+15) over New England

Lean – Over (42)

Tom Brady’s 19.5 QBR last week was his worst regular season performance in the QBR era dating back to 2006 and his wide receivers haven’t really been able to get going since releasing Antonio Brown. Brady is only targeting tight ends on 3.5% of passes (32nd) without Rob Gronkowski this season. New England’s running backs have combined for a league-high 43 targets and I’m expecting a productive game from James White, who is averaging 1.89 yards per route run (5th), especially considering Brady is likely to look for check-downs feeling heat up the middle. Matt Ioannidis has 14 pressures this season ranking 14th among interior defenders and he could take advantage of guard Shaq Mason, who is struggling this season without center David Andrews playing next to him.

Washington’s ground game ranks 31st and I expect them to be pass-heavy considering the Patriots rush defense ranks 2nd. Colt McCoy will get the start under center but I doubt he will take advantage of New England’s biggest defensive deficiency. The Patriots are allowing 12.0 yards per target to opposing tight ends (32nd) but the Redskins will be without Jordan Reed and Vernon Davis. Furthermore, All-Pro cornerback Stephon Gillmore will shut down rookie wide receiver Terry McLaurin, who is gaining 2.16 yards per route run (14th). Right tackle Morgan Moses has conceded 17 pressures (2nd-worst) and has no chance of staying in front of Kyle Van Noy, who ranks 15th in pass rush efficiency, and right guard Brandon Scherff will miss this game. McCoy’s only option will be check-down passes to Chris Thompson as the running back is gaining 2.51 yards per route run (2nd) and should continue his success versus banged-up linebacker Dont’a Hightower.

I expect Tom Brady to bounce back on Sunday, especially considering Washington’s secondary may be without cornerback Josh Norman. Jay Gruden will need to scheme Colt McCoy easy throws to backup tight end Jeremy Sprinkle and Chris Thompson. We make New England a 14.0-point favorite, with a predicted total of 44.7 points, and Washington applies to a very good 154-75-7 ATS contrary situation that plays on bad teams coming off a loss of 20-points or more (8-0 ATS applying to dogs of 14 points or more).

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Patriots
  • Redskins


  • Pass Plays 38.3 42.5
  • Succ Pass Plays 48.2% 30.7%
  • Sack Rate 2.9% 11.5%
  • Int Rate 1.2% 6.5%
  • Deep Pass Rate 18.2% 24.9%
  • Big Pass Yards 43.1% 32.6%
  • NYPP 7.2 4.1


  • Rush Plays 28.5 17.5
  • RB YPR 3.2 3.2
  • Stuff Rate 17.7% 25.0%
  • Succ Rush Plays 45.6% 39.3%
  • Big Rush Yards 17.4% 15.6%
  • Yards Per Rush 3.2 3.3


  • All Snaps 66.8 60.0
  • Early Down Succ 49.1% 38.4%
  • Succ Rate 47.0% 32.7%
  • Big Yards Rate 37.4% 29.8%
  • Yards Per Play 5.4 3.9
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.7% 0.0%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 29.5 27.4
  • Run Ratio 42.8% 29.9%
  • Starting Field Pos 32.2 25.5
  • Game Control 14.5 -14.5
  • Points 30.5 6.8
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