Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – 6-point Teaser (-120) – New England (+8.5) with Philadelphia (+8.5)

New England (+2.5) over TAMPA BAY

• Last week, the betting market rated the Patriots about 1.5 points better than average. The Buccaneers were rated a half point better than average before their bye week.
• Tampa Bay will likely get RT Luke Goedeke back on the field. Goedeke has been sidelined since week 2 with a re-aggravated foot injury that landed him on IR, but the team opened his 21-day practice window on Wednesday after the bye.
• However, even with Goedeke back, the Buccaneers are far from healthy. Tampa Bay is likely without edge rusher Haason Reddick, wide receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, and running back Bucky Irving, who is averaging 2.12 yards per route run (3rd) catching passes out of the backfield.
• Drake Maye leads the NFL with 61 explosive passes, and he has a favorable matchup in this game as Tampa Bay’s defense is surrendering a league-high 33% more yppp versus heavy personnel. New England’s offense has just 2 WR in the formation (i.e. heavy personnel) on 40% of snaps (4th-highest).
• The Buccaneers are surrendering a 64% success rate to opposing tight ends (29th), and they will struggle with TE Hunter Henry, who is averaging 0.50 EPA/target (6th).
• I don’t think you can have these two teams rated the same on a neutral field, which is what this line implies. Our model favors the Buccaneers by just 0.2 points with a predicted total of 45.5.

Strong Opinion 6-point Teaser play on Philadelphia (+8.5) with New England (+8.5) both at +7.5 or more.