Game Analysis

Lean – New England (+10.5/10) over SAN FRANCISCO

• The Jets jumped out to a 14-0 lead last week against the Patriots which completely sunk New England’s offense because they couldn’t use the ground game to protect the offensive line anymore. We could see the same script happen in this game with the 49ers favored by double digits.
• The Patriots surrendered 6 sacks last week, which was the most by any offensive line this season.
• The Jets had a 40% blitz rate last game, which was the highest they’ve ever had under head coach Robert Saleh, because they had absolutely no respect for New England’s protection.
• Jacoby Brissett had only 2 completions against the blitz last week which was less than the 3 sacks the Jets got sending extra pass rushers.
• There is some positivity for the Patriots offensive line with starting LT Vederian Lowe likely back in uniform to line up across from edge defender Nick Bosa, whose 12 pressures rank 16th.
• San Francisco interior defender Javon Hargrave ranks 14th in pass rushing efficiency but he suffered a triceps injury that is likely to take him out for the remainder of the regular season.
• New England’s offense is targeting tight ends on a league-high 38% of passes but All-Pro LB Fred Warner will shut those down. The 49ers are allowing just a 33% success rate to tight ends (2nd).
• San Francisco WR Deebo Samuel and RB Christian McCaffrey are sidelined but the 49ers should get back TE George Kittle, who is averaging 0.65 EPA/target (2nd).
• San Francisco’s offense has plenty of firepower with the emergence of WR Jauan Jennings, who had 175 yards last week and is up to averaging 1.01 EPA/target (4th).
• Patriots edge defender Keion White ranks 17th in pass rushing efficiency but he won’t be a hindrance to Brock Purdy while lined up across from All-Pro LT Trent Williams.
• Our model favors the 49ers by 12.0 points, with a predicted total of 40.6 points, but the Lean is on the Patriots, who apply to a 105-35-3 ATS blowout bounce-back situation that plays on bad teams after losing by 20 points or more.