Game Analysis
PITTSBURGH (+3) vs New England
Pittsburgh’s defense allowed 6.4 yards per play without Ryan Shazier and Joe Haden in the lineup the last two weeks against two offenses ranked in the bottom 10 of yards per play. Haden (questionable) may return this week to provide some stability for the secondary just in time to face Tom Brady and the 3rd-best passing offense in my metrics.
Dont’a Hightower’s early season injury left the Patriots thin at linebacker and they have never fully recovered. New England has the worst rush defense according to my numbers and they have allowed the second-most receiving yards to opposing running backs this season. Le’Veon Bell is averaging 5.8 receptions per game, most by any running back, and the Patriots profile as an ideal matchup for him to dominate in both facets of the offense.
Both offenses should have success here and our predictive model favors New England to win 27-26. However, I’m not going to advise going against New England following a loss, even if it is their 3rd consecutive road game. The Pats actually apply to the same 38-96-2 ATS 3rd consecutive road game situation that applied to Minnesota last week (we had Carolina as a Best Bet) but New England is also 44-7 straight up and 38-13 ATS following a loss, including an amazing 30-2 ATS after a loss when not favored by more than 6 points. That is the best team trend I have ever seen and it continues to work year after year. However, none of those have been in their 3rd consecutive road game and that negative situation is also something that I don’t want to buck. I’ll pass on this game.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
39.7
39.5
-
Succ Pass Plays
49.7%
48.1%
-
Sack Rate
6.2%
6.3%
-
Int Rate
1.3%
2.4%
-
Deep Pass Rate
20.8%
20.7%
-
Big Pass Yards
43.3%
34.2%
-
NYPP
7.3
6.5
Rush
-
Rush Plays
28.0
25.1
-
RB YPR
4.0
4.6
-
Stuff Rate
21.5%
17.8%
-
Succ Rush Plays
50.3%
52.8%
-
Big Rush Yards
31.3%
42.4%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.0
4.9
Game
-
All Snaps
67.7
64.6
-
Early Down Succ
53.6%
54.0%
-
Succ Rate
49.9%
49.8%
-
Big Yards Rate
41.1%
39.3%
-
Yards Per Play
5.9
5.8
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.5%
1.2%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
25.2
25.4
-
Run Ratio
40.7%
38.9%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.6
24.8
-
Game Control
6.2
-6.2
Pass
-
Pass Plays
39.8
35.0
-
Succ Pass Plays
49.2%
40.9%
-
Sack Rate
3.4%
9.4%
-
Int Rate
2.5%
3.4%
-
Deep Pass Rate
24.9%
21.3%
-
Big Pass Yards
42.2%
43.0%
-
NYPP
7.3
5.7
Rush
-
Rush Plays
28.5
24.4
-
RB YPR
3.5
4.0
-
Stuff Rate
19.8%
26.7%
-
Succ Rush Plays
42.7%
45.5%
-
Big Rush Yards
33.6%
42.8%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.5
4.1
Game
-
All Snaps
68.4
59.4
-
Early Down Succ
49.8%
45.5%
-
Succ Rate
46.6%
42.9%
-
Big Yards Rate
40.2%
47.8%
-
Yards Per Play
5.6
5.1
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.5%
0.5%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.2
28.5
-
Run Ratio
42.1%
41.4%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.3
26.3
-
Game Control
2.0
-2.0
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
KC |
27 – 42 L |
1.8 |
33.3% /
60.5% |
7.7% /
7.9% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.3 /
9.3 |
50.0% /
42.4% |
25.0% /
9.1% |
3.5 /
5.7 |
75 /
71 |
46.4% /
63.5% |
41.3% /
52.1% |
54.8% /
53.7% |
5.0 /
7.6 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
48.0% /
46.5% |
27.8 /
25.5 |
| 2 |
@NO |
36 – 20 W |
14.2 |
61.0% /
51.1% |
4.9% /
2.2% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
10.6 /
7.7 |
51.6% /
47.1% |
22.6% /
11.8% |
3.8 /
4.8 |
72 /
62 |
58.3% /
54.2% |
56.9% /
50.0% |
53.2% /
48.3% |
7.7 /
6.9 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
43.1% /
27.4% |
27.5 /
27.9 |
| 3 |
HOU |
36 – 33 W |
1.2 |
47.5% /
48.6% |
12.5% /
5.7% |
0.0% /
6.1% |
8.4 /
8.3 |
45.0% /
56.3% |
30.0% /
15.6% |
3.0 /
3.9 |
60 /
67 |
46.8% /
54.7% |
46.7% /
52.2% |
52.3% /
38.8% |
6.6 /
6.2 |
1.7% /
0.0% |
33.3% /
47.8% |
28.8 /
24.0 |
| 4 |
CAR |
30 – 33 L |
-1.9 |
60.4% /
61.3% |
6.3% /
6.5% |
0.0% /
3.4% |
6.1 /
9.8 |
73.7% /
51.7% |
21.1% /
20.7% |
4.2 /
4.8 |
67 /
60 |
66.7% /
54.9% |
64.2% /
56.7% |
22.0% /
48.0% |
5.6 /
7.4 |
0.0% /
1.7% |
28.4% /
48.3% |
26.1 /
26.7 |
| 5 |
@TB |
19 – 14 W |
4.4 |
51.2% /
48.9% |
7.0% /
4.3% |
2.5% /
0.0% |
6.7 /
6.8 |
47.8% /
55.0% |
17.4% /
20.0% |
4.9 /
4.5 |
66 /
67 |
53.7% /
55.6% |
50.0% /
50.7% |
24.6% /
37.2% |
6.1 /
6.1 |
1.5% /
0.0% |
34.8% /
29.9% |
27.7 /
27.4 |
| 6 |
@NYJ |
24 – 17 W |
-0.1 |
39.5% /
54.0% |
0.0% /
8.0% |
2.6% /
4.3% |
6.8 /
6.7 |
61.5% /
40.0% |
7.7% /
24.0% |
4.6 /
3.0 |
64 /
75 |
49.0% /
50.9% |
48.4% /
49.3% |
29.5% /
46.0% |
5.9 /
5.5 |
1.6% /
1.3% |
40.6% /
33.3% |
28.7 /
24.0 |
| 7 |
ATL |
23 – 7 W |
11.4 |
48.4% /
58.8% |
6.5% /
2.9% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
7.8 /
6.6 |
56.4% /
54.5% |
12.8% /
18.2% |
4.2 /
5.5 |
70 /
56 |
57.7% /
65.9% |
52.9% /
57.1% |
38.4% /
26.8% |
5.8 /
6.1 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
55.7% /
39.3% |
28.8 /
21.9 |
| 8 |
LAC |
21 – 13 W |
4.4 |
50.0% /
46.7% |
6.0% /
3.3% |
0.0% /
3.4% |
6.3 /
6.4 |
43.8% /
66.7% |
28.1% /
19.0% |
3.0 /
7.5 |
82 /
51 |
46.8% /
60.0% |
47.6% /
54.9% |
21.3% /
38.7% |
5.0 /
6.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
39.0% /
41.2% |
30.5 /
20.5 |
| 10 |
@DEN |
41 – 16 W |
14.7 |
65.8% /
39.4% |
2.6% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
3.0% |
7.8 /
6.7 |
55.2% /
44.8% |
13.8% /
13.8% |
3.4 /
4.1 |
67 /
62 |
67.9% /
40.0% |
61.2% /
41.9% |
32.1% /
46.2% |
5.9 /
5.5 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
43.3% /
46.8% |
37.9 /
23.7 |
| 11 |
@OAK |
33 – 8 W |
15.9 |
56.1% /
45.3% |
9.8% /
7.5% |
0.0% /
2.0% |
8.1 /
4.4 |
55.0% /
76.2% |
25.0% /
14.3% |
4.5 /
5.2 |
61 /
74 |
60.4% /
59.6% |
55.7% /
54.1% |
40.2% /
24.4% |
6.9 /
4.6 |
0.0% /
8.1% |
32.8% /
28.4% |
23.1 /
23.0 |
| 12 |
MIA |
35 – 17 W |
13.1 |
44.8% /
47.5% |
3.4% /
17.5% |
3.6% /
6.1% |
7.6 /
3.9 |
42.9% /
42.1% |
16.7% /
31.6% |
4.8 /
3.5 |
71 /
59 |
50.0% /
51.1% |
43.7% /
45.8% |
69.4% /
23.5% |
5.9 /
3.7 |
1.4% /
1.7% |
59.2% /
32.2% |
31.6 /
25.9 |
| 13 |
@BUF |
23 – 3 W |
9.1 |
54.5% /
18.4% |
9.1% /
10.5% |
3.3% /
2.9% |
7.4 /
2.2 |
40.5% /
69.2% |
18.9% /
11.5% |
5.2 /
7.0 |
70 /
64 |
51.9% /
41.7% |
47.1% /
39.1% |
39.1% /
44.0% |
6.2 /
4.2 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
52.9% /
40.6% |
29.3 /
23.7 |
| 14 |
@MIA |
20 – 27 L |
-7.4 |
33.3% /
45.0% |
4.4% /
5.0% |
4.7% /
0.0% |
5.0 /
6.1 |
30.0% /
40.6% |
40.0% /
21.9% |
2.5 /
3.8 |
55 /
72 |
40.9% /
50.0% |
32.7% /
43.1% |
56.9% /
35.3% |
4.5 /
5.1 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
18.2% /
44.4% |
24.2 /
28.8 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@CLE |
21 – 18 W |
5.8 |
45.9% /
43.2% |
2.7% /
18.9% |
2.8% /
3.3% |
6.9 /
4.9 |
16.0% /
36.0% |
16.0% /
16.0% |
1.5 /
2.3 |
62 /
62 |
41.0% /
41.7% |
33.9% /
40.3% |
35.2% /
45.1% |
4.7 /
3.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
40.3% /
40.3% |
20.8 /
28.6 |
| 2 |
MIN |
26 – 9 W |
9.3 |
40.5% /
32.5% |
5.4% /
5.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.3 /
3.7 |
41.2% /
50.0% |
20.6% /
25.0% |
3.1 /
4.6 |
71 /
60 |
48.1% /
42.9% |
40.8% /
38.3% |
34.1% /
45.1% |
4.7 /
4.0 |
0.0% /
1.7% |
47.9% /
33.3% |
31.8 /
23.9 |
| 3 |
@CHI |
17 – 23 L |
-4.4 |
47.6% /
33.3% |
7.1% /
8.3% |
0.0% /
4.5% |
5.0 /
3.5 |
64.7% /
44.7% |
5.9% /
28.9% |
4.1 /
5.8 |
59 /
62 |
56.3% /
42.0% |
52.5% /
40.3% |
29.4% /
55.3% |
4.8 /
4.9 |
3.4% /
1.6% |
28.8% /
61.3% |
36.4 /
32.7 |
| 4 |
@BAL |
26 – 9 W |
8.6 |
41.9% /
52.9% |
3.2% /
7.8% |
3.3% /
4.3% |
6.7 /
4.0 |
46.5% /
46.7% |
23.3% /
46.7% |
4.0 /
5.5 |
74 /
66 |
45.6% /
56.9% |
44.6% /
51.5% |
26.4% /
25.3% |
5.2 /
4.4 |
0.0% /
1.5% |
58.1% /
22.7% |
31.1 /
28.5 |
| 5 |
JAC |
9 – 30 L |
-4.5 |
42.9% /
37.5% |
3.6% /
12.5% |
9.3% /
7.1% |
5.4 /
5.1 |
40.0% /
40.5% |
35.0% /
24.3% |
3.5 /
6.2 |
76 /
53 |
41.0% /
36.6% |
42.1% /
39.6% |
44.5% /
60.1% |
4.9 /
5.9 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
26.3% /
69.8% |
21.8 /
26.4 |
| 6 |
@KC |
19 – 13 W |
5.8 |
57.7% /
35.1% |
3.8% /
8.1% |
4.0% /
0.0% |
9.4 /
6.0 |
53.8% /
40.0% |
17.9% /
33.3% |
5.0 /
1.9 |
65 /
52 |
64.0% /
39.5% |
55.4% /
36.5% |
61.7% /
62.5% |
6.8 /
4.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
60.0% /
28.8% |
21.3 /
31.7 |
| 7 |
CIN |
29 – 14 W |
7.2 |
48.0% /
35.3% |
0.0% /
11.8% |
0.0% /
6.7% |
10.7 /
3.2 |
37.0% /
22.2% |
17.4% /
38.9% |
3.4 /
4.0 |
71 /
52 |
49.1% /
32.4% |
40.8% /
30.8% |
56.5% /
35.6% |
6.0 /
3.5 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
64.8% /
34.6% |
29.4 /
29.1 |
| 8 |
@DET |
20 – 15 W |
1.9 |
41.9% /
48.9% |
0.0% /
4.3% |
3.2% /
0.0% |
10.2 /
8.7 |
41.9% /
50.0% |
22.6% /
27.3% |
2.5 /
3.2 |
62 /
69 |
41.9% /
58.2% |
41.9% /
49.3% |
53.2% /
58.1% |
6.4 /
7.0 |
1.6% /
1.4% |
50.0% /
31.9% |
24.8 /
22.8 |
| 10 |
@IND |
20 – 17 W |
-5.1 |
50.0% /
40.7% |
3.1% /
11.1% |
3.2% /
4.2% |
7.1 /
7.3 |
36.7% /
36.7% |
36.7% /
33.3% |
2.9 /
2.4 |
62 /
57 |
44.9% /
40.0% |
43.5% /
38.6% |
38.9% /
45.1% |
5.1 /
4.7 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
48.4% /
52.6% |
31.7 /
21.6 |
| 11 |
TEN |
40 – 17 W |
9.1 |
55.3% /
41.0% |
6.4% /
12.8% |
0.0% /
11.8% |
6.0 /
6.8 |
33.3% /
32.0% |
16.7% /
32.0% |
2.8 /
2.2 |
71 /
64 |
55.6% /
42.9% |
47.9% /
37.5% |
26.7% /
53.3% |
5.0 /
5.0 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
33.8% /
39.1% |
44.3 /
22.2 |
| 12 |
GB |
31 – 28 W |
-1.4 |
65.2% /
40.0% |
2.2% /
13.3% |
4.4% /
0.0% |
7.4 /
7.6 |
45.8% /
54.2% |
8.3% /
20.8% |
5.0 /
3.3 |
70 /
54 |
57.1% /
45.0% |
58.6% /
46.3% |
38.1% /
60.3% |
6.6 /
5.7 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
34.3% /
44.4% |
31.7 /
26.9 |
| 13 |
@CIN |
23 – 20 W |
-7.5 |
46.3% /
44.7% |
2.4% /
5.3% |
2.5% /
0.0% |
6.9 /
5.9 |
54.5% /
72.7% |
18.2% /
9.1% |
4.2 /
5.9 |
63 /
60 |
52.0% /
56.5% |
49.2% /
55.0% |
36.9% /
26.1% |
5.9 /
5.9 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
34.9% /
36.7% |
21.6 /
21.6 |
| 14 |
BAL |
39 – 38 W |
1.6 |
56.7% /
45.7% |
4.5% /
2.9% |
0.0% /
2.9% |
7.3 /
7.5 |
43.8% /
65.4% |
18.8% /
11.5% |
3.7 /
5.8 |
83 /
61 |
50.8% /
56.9% |
54.2% /
54.1% |
41.3% /
49.6% |
6.6 /
6.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
19.3% /
42.6% |
21.0 /
26.0 |
New England Patriots
@ 
Pittsburgh Steelers