New England Patriots vs

Oakland Raiders

at Mexico City
Sun, Nov 19
1:25 PM Pacific
Rotation: 471
Odds: Oakland Raiders +7, Total: 55

Game Analysis

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New England (-7) vs Oakland

Tom Brady has an excellent matchup this week as he leads the 3rd-ranked passing offense against a Raiders pass defense ranked last in my ratings. Furthermore, the Patriots most talented pass catcher, Rob Gronkowski, will face an Oakland defense allowing 8 yards per target to opposing tight ends, 6th-worst in the league. I expect New England to air-it-out in this game.

Derek Carr is 10th in the NFL with 6.8 yppp and I expect him to play well against the Patriot’s 28th ranked pass defense. New England hasn’t held an opposing quarterback under 6 yppp all season mostly due to lack of pressure as they have recorded just 2 sacks in the last 3 weeks. The Raiders have one of the league’s best offensive lines and I don’t expect Carr to be under much pressure on Sunday.

This will game will be played in Mexico City and both teams have reason to believe this gives them an advantage. The Raiders have experience playing in Mexico City just last season but the Patriots stayed in Denver the entire week preparing for the extreme altitude, more than 7000 feet above sea level.

My ratings favor New England by just 5 points with Oakland having a 1 ½ points advantage for coming off their bye week, but Tom Brady is an amazing 132-67-7 ATS in his career when the Pats are not favored by 9 points or more, including 5-1 ATS this season (5-0 recently). I’ll pass.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Patriots
  • Raiders
NE
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 40.9 38.1
  • Succ Pass Plays 50.8% 52.1%
  • Sack Rate 5.9% 4.5%
  • Int Rate 0.6% 2.3%
  • Deep Pass Rate 22.5% 23.1%
  • Big Pass Yards 41.6% 41.8%
  • NYPP 7.4 7.6



Rush


  • Rush Plays 28.3 25.3
  • RB YPR 3.9 4.6
  • Stuff Rate 19.8% 16.9%
  • Succ Rush Plays 53.9% 50.9%
  • Big Rush Yards 19.9% 41.2%
  • Yards Per Rush 3.8 4.9




Game

  • All Snaps 69.2 63.4
  • Early Down Succ 54.8% 55.5%
  • Succ Rate 52.1% 51.7%
  • Big Yards Rate 36.5% 42.6%
  • Yards Per Play 6.0 6.5
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.5% 0.7%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 27.0 27.3
  • Run Ratio 40.7% 40.0%
  • Starting Field Pos 29.3 24.6
  • Game Control 5.6 -5.6
 
  • Points 28.6 21.7
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