Game Analysis
New England (-7) vs Oakland
Tom Brady has an excellent matchup this week as he leads the 3rd-ranked passing offense against a Raiders pass defense ranked last in my ratings. Furthermore, the Patriots most talented pass catcher, Rob Gronkowski, will face an Oakland defense allowing 8 yards per target to opposing tight ends, 6th-worst in the league. I expect New England to air-it-out in this game.
Derek Carr is 10th in the NFL with 6.8 yppp and I expect him to play well against the Patriot’s 28th ranked pass defense. New England hasn’t held an opposing quarterback under 6 yppp all season mostly due to lack of pressure as they have recorded just 2 sacks in the last 3 weeks. The Raiders have one of the league’s best offensive lines and I don’t expect Carr to be under much pressure on Sunday.
This will game will be played in Mexico City and both teams have reason to believe this gives them an advantage. The Raiders have experience playing in Mexico City just last season but the Patriots stayed in Denver the entire week preparing for the extreme altitude, more than 7000 feet above sea level.
My ratings favor New England by just 5 points with Oakland having a 1 ½ points advantage for coming off their bye week, but Tom Brady is an amazing 132-67-7 ATS in his career when the Pats are not favored by 9 points or more, including 5-1 ATS this season (5-0 recently). I’ll pass.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
40.9
38.1
-
Succ Pass Plays
50.8%
52.1%
-
Sack Rate
5.9%
4.5%
-
Int Rate
0.6%
2.3%
-
Deep Pass Rate
22.5%
23.1%
-
Big Pass Yards
41.6%
41.8%
-
NYPP
7.4
7.6
Rush
-
Rush Plays
28.3
25.3
-
RB YPR
3.9
4.6
-
Stuff Rate
19.8%
16.9%
-
Succ Rush Plays
53.9%
50.9%
-
Big Rush Yards
19.9%
41.2%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.8
4.9
Game
-
All Snaps
69.2
63.4
-
Early Down Succ
54.8%
55.5%
-
Succ Rate
52.1%
51.7%
-
Big Yards Rate
36.5%
42.6%
-
Yards Per Play
6.0
6.5
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.5%
0.7%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
27.0
27.3
-
Run Ratio
40.7%
40.0%
-
Starting Field Pos
29.3
24.6
-
Game Control
5.6
-5.6
Pass
-
Pass Plays
36.3
33.6
-
Succ Pass Plays
47.6%
48.9%
-
Sack Rate
4.7%
4.5%
-
Int Rate
2.6%
0.0%
-
Deep Pass Rate
16.7%
15.2%
-
Big Pass Yards
39.0%
43.1%
-
NYPP
6.5
7.3
Rush
-
Rush Plays
22.0
30.2
-
RB YPR
3.8
3.9
-
Stuff Rate
25.6%
22.1%
-
Succ Rush Plays
39.5%
39.8%
-
Big Rush Yards
40.2%
40.4%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.8
4.0
Game
-
All Snaps
58.3
63.8
-
Early Down Succ
46.7%
46.7%
-
Succ Rate
44.4%
45.0%
-
Big Yards Rate
41.1%
41.9%
-
Yards Per Play
5.5
5.7
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.0%
1.1%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.9
30.2
-
Run Ratio
37.9%
47.0%
-
Starting Field Pos
27.7
27.9
-
Game Control
-1.8
1.8
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
KC |
27 – 42 L |
1.8 |
33.3% / 60.5% |
7.7% / 7.9% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
6.3 / 9.3 |
50.0% / 42.4% |
25.0% / 9.1% |
3.5 / 5.7 |
75 / 71 |
46.4% / 63.5% |
41.3% / 52.1% |
54.8% / 53.7% |
5.0 / 7.6 |
0.0% / 1.4% |
48.0% / 46.5% |
27.8 / 25.5 |
2 |
@NO |
36 – 20 W |
14.2 |
61.0% / 51.1% |
4.9% / 2.2% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
10.6 / 7.7 |
51.6% / 47.1% |
22.6% / 11.8% |
3.8 / 4.8 |
72 / 62 |
58.3% / 54.2% |
56.9% / 50.0% |
53.2% / 48.3% |
7.7 / 6.9 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
43.1% / 27.4% |
27.5 / 27.9 |
3 |
HOU |
36 – 33 W |
1.2 |
47.5% / 48.6% |
12.5% / 5.7% |
0.0% / 6.1% |
8.4 / 8.3 |
45.0% / 56.3% |
30.0% / 15.6% |
3.0 / 3.9 |
60 / 67 |
46.8% / 54.7% |
46.7% / 52.2% |
52.3% / 38.8% |
6.6 / 6.2 |
1.7% / 0.0% |
33.3% / 47.8% |
28.8 / 24.0 |
4 |
CAR |
30 – 33 L |
-1.9 |
60.4% / 61.3% |
6.3% / 6.5% |
0.0% / 3.4% |
6.1 / 9.8 |
73.7% / 51.7% |
21.1% / 20.7% |
4.2 / 4.8 |
67 / 60 |
66.7% / 54.9% |
64.2% / 56.7% |
22.0% / 48.0% |
5.6 / 7.4 |
0.0% / 1.7% |
28.4% / 48.3% |
26.1 / 26.7 |
5 |
@TB |
19 – 14 W |
4.4 |
51.2% / 48.9% |
7.0% / 4.3% |
2.5% / 0.0% |
6.7 / 6.8 |
47.8% / 55.0% |
17.4% / 20.0% |
4.9 / 4.5 |
66 / 67 |
53.7% / 55.6% |
50.0% / 50.7% |
24.6% / 37.2% |
6.1 / 6.1 |
1.5% / 0.0% |
34.8% / 29.9% |
27.7 / 27.4 |
6 |
@NYJ |
24 – 17 W |
-0.1 |
39.5% / 54.0% |
0.0% / 8.0% |
2.6% / 4.3% |
6.8 / 6.7 |
61.5% / 40.0% |
7.7% / 24.0% |
4.6 / 3.0 |
64 / 75 |
49.0% / 50.9% |
48.4% / 49.3% |
29.5% / 46.0% |
5.9 / 5.5 |
1.6% / 1.3% |
40.6% / 33.3% |
28.7 / 24.0 |
7 |
ATL |
23 – 7 W |
11.4 |
48.4% / 58.8% |
6.5% / 2.9% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
7.8 / 6.6 |
56.4% / 54.5% |
12.8% / 18.2% |
4.2 / 5.5 |
70 / 56 |
57.7% / 65.9% |
52.9% / 57.1% |
38.4% / 26.8% |
5.8 / 6.1 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
55.7% / 39.3% |
28.8 / 21.9 |
8 |
LAC |
21 – 13 W |
4.4 |
50.0% / 46.7% |
6.0% / 3.3% |
0.0% / 3.4% |
6.3 / 6.4 |
43.8% / 66.7% |
28.1% / 19.0% |
3.0 / 7.5 |
82 / 51 |
46.8% / 60.0% |
47.6% / 54.9% |
21.3% / 38.7% |
5.0 / 6.8 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
39.0% / 41.2% |
30.5 / 20.5 |
10 |
@DEN |
41 – 16 W |
14.7 |
65.8% / 39.4% |
2.6% / 0.0% |
0.0% / 3.0% |
7.8 / 6.7 |
55.2% / 44.8% |
13.8% / 13.8% |
3.4 / 4.1 |
67 / 62 |
67.9% / 40.0% |
61.2% / 41.9% |
32.1% / 46.2% |
5.9 / 5.5 |
0.0% / 1.6% |
43.3% / 46.8% |
37.9 / 23.7 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
@TEN |
26 – 16 W |
4.4 |
55.9% / 50.0% |
5.9% / 2.4% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
7.4 / 6.1 |
50.0% / 42.9% |
16.7% / 28.6% |
3.7 / 4.5 |
64 / 63 |
57.1% / 46.9% |
53.1% / 47.6% |
26.7% / 33.1% |
5.6 / 5.6 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
46.9% / 33.3% |
29.3 / 22.4 |
2 |
NYJ |
45 – 20 W |
11.6 |
64.3% / 44.8% |
0.0% / 13.8% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
8.2 / 5.0 |
40.7% / 61.5% |
33.3% / 19.2% |
6.7 / 4.9 |
55 / 55 |
48.8% / 53.7% |
52.7% / 52.7% |
56.1% / 43.0% |
7.5 / 4.9 |
0.0% / 3.6% |
49.1% / 47.3% |
35.7 / 27.1 |
3 |
@WAS |
10 – 27 L |
-11.9 |
37.1% / 61.3% |
11.4% / 3.2% |
6.5% / 0.0% |
2.7 / 11.5 |
21.4% / 35.3% |
21.4% / 17.6% |
2.4 / 3.4 |
49 / 65 |
42.4% / 48.0% |
32.7% / 47.7% |
24.8% / 53.2% |
2.6 / 7.3 |
2.0% / 3.1% |
28.6% / 52.3% |
31.7 / 28.7 |
4 |
@DEN |
10 – 16 L |
-6.7 |
36.8% / 33.3% |
7.9% / 13.3% |
2.9% / 0.0% |
6.1 / 5.2 |
33.3% / 31.4% |
46.7% / 22.9% |
1.6 / 4.2 |
53 / 65 |
44.7% / 36.4% |
35.8% / 32.3% |
52.8% / 39.5% |
4.8 / 4.6 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
28.3% / 53.8% |
24.7 / 28.8 |
5 |
BAL |
17 – 30 L |
-11.8 |
34.5% / 42.3% |
10.3% / 0.0% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
4.7 / 8.5 |
56.0% / 44.2% |
24.0% / 9.3% |
4.3 / 3.4 |
54 / 69 |
43.9% / 46.9% |
44.4% / 43.5% |
40.0% / 46.5% |
4.5 / 5.3 |
1.9% / 0.0% |
46.3% / 62.3% |
24.9 / 34.0 |
6 |
LAC |
16 – 17 L |
3.2 |
51.6% / 45.9% |
3.2% / 2.7% |
6.7% / 0.0% |
5.3 / 7.1 |
50.0% / 21.9% |
31.8% / 18.8% |
5.0 / 2.6 |
53 / 69 |
52.5% / 34.0% |
50.9% / 34.8% |
35.4% / 33.6% |
5.2 / 5.0 |
0.0% / 1.4% |
41.5% / 46.4% |
31.7 / 24.7 |
7 |
KC |
31 – 30 W |
-3.0 |
44.2% / 48.6% |
0.0% / 2.7% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
8.0 / 8.9 |
38.1% / 47.8% |
19.0% / 26.1% |
4.2 / 4.1 |
73 / 60 |
40.7% / 46.7% |
42.5% / 48.3% |
45.7% / 52.9% |
6.9 / 7.1 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
28.8% / 38.3% |
20.6 / 22.9 |
8 |
@BUF |
14 – 34 L |
-5.5 |
49.0% / 55.6% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
4.1% / 0.0% |
6.4 / 6.1 |
42.9% / 45.0% |
14.3% / 17.5% |
3.9 / 4.2 |
63 / 67 |
51.0% / 55.3% |
47.6% / 49.3% |
28.9% / 48.6% |
5.8 / 5.0 |
3.2% / 0.0% |
22.2% / 59.7% |
22.4 / 35.7 |
9 |
@MIA |
27 – 24 W |
3.2 |
54.8% / 58.1% |
3.2% / 2.3% |
3.3% / 0.0% |
9.5 / 7.2 |
23.3% / 27.8% |
23.3% / 38.9% |
2.9 / 4.8 |
61 / 61 |
39.0% / 52.1% |
39.3% / 49.2% |
59.7% / 26.8% |
6.3 / 6.5 |
1.6% / 1.6% |
49.2% / 29.5% |
28.2 / 27.1 |