New England Patriots @ New York Jets Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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NEW YORK JETS (+9.5) vs New England

The Jets have certainly been better than expected this season but they were fortunate to beat Cleveland last week as they were outgained by nearly 2 yards per play. New York’s offense has been mediocre and the Jets defense isn’t as good as they appear to be. New York ranks 10^th in my numbers using just 2017 unadjusted data, but they’ve yet to face an offense in the top half of the league. That will change today, as the Jets’ defense will face its first real test.

Despite scoring less than 20 points, New England’s offense gained an impressive 6.1 yppl against the Buccaneers last week and the Patriots offense ranks 3^rd in my numbers – trailing only Kansas City and Atlanta. On the other hand, the Patriots defense ranks last and they’ve been particularly vulnerable against the pass. However, the Pats’ have basically the same level of talent as the defense that ranked 5^th defending the pass last year and I expect that unit to improve going forward.

Using this year’s stats only would certainly favor the Jets here but my predictive numbers suggest passing on this game.

Team Stats
Game Log

Patriots
Jets

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 42.2 39.2
Succ Pass Plays 50.7% 54.1%
Sack Rate 7.7% 5.3%
Int Rate 0.5% 1.9%
Deep Pass Rate 24.8% 25.5%
Big Pass Yards 45.0% 48.3%
NYPP 7.6 8.4

Rush

Rush Plays 25.8 26.2
RB YPR 3.9 4.7
Stuff Rate 23.2% 15.4%
Succ Rush Plays 53.6% 50.5%
Big Rush Yards 25.5% 36.9%
Yards Per Rush 3.9 4.7

Game

All Snaps 68.0 65.4
Early Down Succ 54.4% 56.6%
Succ Rate 51.8% 52.4%
Big Yards Rate 41.4% 45.2%
Yards Per Play 6.2 6.9
Fumble Lost Rate 0.6% 0.6%
Time Per Play (sec) 27.1 26.9
Run Ratio 37.5% 40.0%
Starting Field Pos 27.6 26.3
Game Control 3.9 -3.9

Points 29.6 28.4

2017 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	KC	27 – 42 L	1.8	33.3% / 60.5%	7.7% / 7.9%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.3 / 9.3	50.0% / 42.4%	25.0% / 9.1%	3.5 / 5.7	75 / 71	46.4% / 63.5%	41.3% / 52.1%	54.8% / 53.7%	5.0 / 7.6	0.0% / 1.4%	48.0% / 46.5%	27.8 / 25.5
2	@NO	36 – 20 W	14.2	61.0% / 51.1%	4.9% / 2.2%	0.0% / 0.0%	10.6 / 7.7	51.6% / 47.1%	22.6% / 11.8%	3.8 / 4.8	72 / 62	58.3% / 54.2%	56.9% / 50.0%	53.2% / 48.3%	7.7 / 6.9	0.0% / 0.0%	43.1% / 27.4%	27.5 / 27.9
3	HOU	36 – 33 W	1.2	47.5% / 48.6%	12.5% / 5.7%	0.0% / 6.1%	8.4 / 8.3	45.0% / 56.3%	30.0% / 15.6%	3.0 / 3.9	60 / 67	46.8% / 54.7%	46.7% / 52.2%	52.3% / 38.8%	6.6 / 6.2	1.7% / 0.0%	33.3% / 47.8%	28.8 / 24.0
4	CAR	30 – 33 L	-1.9	60.4% / 61.3%	6.3% / 6.5%	0.0% / 3.4%	6.1 / 9.8	73.7% / 51.7%	21.1% / 20.7%	4.2 / 4.8	67 / 60	66.7% / 54.9%	64.2% / 56.7%	22.0% / 48.0%	5.6 / 7.4	0.0% / 1.7%	28.4% / 48.3%	26.1 / 26.7
5	@TB	19 – 14 W	4.4	51.2% / 48.9%	7.0% / 4.3%	2.5% / 0.0%	6.7 / 6.8	47.8% / 55.0%	17.4% / 20.0%	4.9 / 4.5	66 / 67	53.7% / 55.6%	50.0% / 50.7%	24.6% / 37.2%	6.1 / 6.1	1.5% / 0.0%	34.8% / 29.9%	27.7 / 27.4

2017 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@BUF	12 – 21 L	-3.8	37.5% / 43.3%	2.5% / 6.7%	5.1% / 3.6%	4.4 / 7.3	25.0% / 33.3%	31.3% / 24.4%	2.4 / 4.3	56 / 75	35.9% / 37.7%	33.9% / 37.3%	26.5% / 68.1%	3.8 / 5.5	0.0% / 0.0%	28.6% / 60.0%	29.7 / 25.3
2	@OAK	20 – 45 L	-11.6	44.8% / 64.3%	13.8% / 0.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	5.0 / 8.2	61.5% / 40.7%	19.2% / 33.3%	4.9 / 6.7	55 / 55	53.7% / 48.8%	52.7% / 52.7%	43.0% / 56.1%	4.9 / 7.5	3.6% / 0.0%	47.3% / 49.1%	27.1 / 35.7
3	MIA	20 – 6 W	9.8	52.0% / 41.7%	8.0% / 6.3%	0.0% / 4.4%	9.3 / 4.1	37.1% / 46.7%	34.3% / 46.7%	3.0 / 2.0	60 / 63	48.9% / 54.2%	43.3% / 42.9%	40.1% / 11.6%	5.6 / 3.6	1.7% / 0.0%	58.3% / 23.8%	31.4 / 23.7
4	JAC	23 – 20 W	2.3	44.4% / 30.6%	13.9% / 2.8%	3.2% / 2.9%	6.0 / 3.8	31.3% / 57.5%	43.8% / 20.0%	8.0 / 4.4	68 / 76	37.3% / 50.8%	38.2% / 44.7%	68.6% / 27.6%	6.9 / 4.1	1.5% / 0.0%	47.1% / 52.6%	29.5 / 27.0
5	@CLE	17 – 14 W	1.7	51.5% / 45.9%	9.1% / 2.7%	3.3% / 5.6%	5.4 / 7.5	19.0% / 45.5%	33.3% / 18.2%	1.8 / 4.2	54 / 70	45.9% / 46.3%	38.9% / 45.7%	32.1% / 40.1%	4.0 / 6.0	0.0% / 1.4%	38.9% / 47.1%	29.0 / 30.1

New England Patriots @

New York Jets

Sun, Oct 15

10:00 AM Pacific

Game Analysis