Game Analysis

2-Star Best Bet – **New England (-3 -120) over NY GIANTS

Strong Opinion – Under (34.5)

· Mac Jones was asked if he was starting on Wednesday and he responded “Hope so. That’s the plan, I think.” The Patriots will keep it simple for whoever is under center this week designing the gameplan around running backs Rhamondre Stevenson and Ezekiel Elliott.

· New England’s rushing offense has a 41.7% success rate (9th) and New York’s defense ranks 25th in EPA/rush allowed.

· The Patriots are targeting running backs on 22.9% of passes (7th-most) and the screen game should be effective for Jones, as the Giants are surrendering a 47% pass success rate to running backs (29th).

· New England left tackle Trent Brown should be back on the field this week after missing the Germany game and he will limit edge rusher Kayvon Thibodeaux, who had 8 pressures last week.

· Tommy DeVito has been holding onto the ball too long since college and he has a 21.6% sack rate this season. DeVito has averaged only 3.9 yards per pass play and will be thoroughly shut down by Bill Belichick’s scheme.

· The Patriots have a 45.1% blitz rate (4th-highest) and a 38.2% man-coverage rate (4th-highest). The Giants’ yards per attempt versus the blitz is just 79% of their yards per attempt against a standard pass rush this season (31st) and New York’s yards per attempt versus man coverage is also only 79% of their yards per attempt against zone (26th).

· Giants TE Darren Waller was averaging 1.54 yards per route run (7th) but he will remain out this week.

· New York C John Michael Schmitz ranks 29th in pass blocking efficiency out of 31 qualifying centers and he will struggle across from interior defender Christian Barmore, who has 26 pressures (23rd).

· Saquon Barkley averaged a season-high 5.9 yards per carry last week, but he will not be able to shoulder some of the load off of DeVito as New England’s defense is conceding a 33.1% rush success rate (2nd).

· Our model favors the Patriots by 5.3 points, with a predicted total of 30.3 points. In addition to the line value, the matchups are significant in favor of New England and the Giants apply to a 31-84-1 ATS letdown situation that plays against teams coming off a win as a 5-point dog or more against a division opponent. That win over the Commanders was largely due to a +6 turnover margin, which would normally lead to a 24-point win – all else being equal (NYG was outgained by 112 yards).

New England is a 2-Star Best Bet at -3.5 or less and 1-Star at -4. The Under is a Strong Opinion at 34 points or more.