Game Analysis

New England (-3.5) vs NEW ORLEANS

• Patriots’ offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels has been a great marriage for Drake Maye, who is averaging 0.29 EPA/play (6th).
• McDaniels’ entire system is built to sustain drives and punish soft spacing, which directly targets the inviting nature of Saints’ defensive coordinator Brandon Staley’s two-high structures.
• New England’s offense only spent 38% of its offensive snaps in 11-personnel last week, and they are up to a 40% heavy personnel rate (3rd-highest). The New Orleans defense is surrendering 20% more yppp versus 2WR sets than lighter personnel (25th).
• The Saints will need to play even more two-high shells this week because they won’t be able to trust the safeties. Starting S Justin Reid suffered a concussion early in the last game, and other starting S Julian Blackmon has already been sidelined. Patriots’ TE Hunter Henry is averaging 0.63 EPA/target (2nd), and he has a favorable matchup against backup safeties.
• New England WR Stefon Diggs had 146 receiving yards last week and can be featured again, lining up across from backup 4th round rookie CB Quincy Riley with starter Isaac Yiadom out.
• New Orleans is the 2nd-most run-heavy offense after adjusting for situation, but the ground game will be shut down as the Patriots are allowing -0.22 EPA/rush (4th). Spencer Rattler will have to win this game with his arm if the Saints have any chance.
• Our model makes New England a 4.3-point favorite with a predicted total of 47.2 points, but the Patriots apply to a 24-80-1 ATS situation that is based on their upset win over division rival Buffalo. I used New Orleans in my spread pool.