Game Analysis

Lean – New England (-6.5) vs NEW ORLEANS

The Patriots defense had -25 adjEPA against the Chiefs, the worst performance of any defense in week 1. New England’s thinnest positional group is linebacker and they might not have Dont’a Hightower this week – that could prove to be a problem against Drew Brees.

The Saints offense was actually much better than their point total of 19 would indicate as they turned in the 10th best week 1 offensive performance in adjEPA against a tough Vikings defense. New Orleans was unlucky to only come away with one touchdown on five trips to the Redzone and the final score of that game was certainly misleading.

However, the Saints defense remains a problem and their adjEPA of -21 ranked 2nd worst, only ahead of the Patriots. Concerns about these two defenses are reflected in this game’s total of 55.5, the highest of the season thus far.

I think the line on this game is about right, as our model has New England by 6 points, but the Patriots tend to outplay their statistical projections with Tom Brady at quarterback. The Patriots are an amazing 127-67-7 ATS in games that Tom Brady starts as long as they are not favored by 9 points or more, The fact that they looked so bad last week is even more reason to be on the Pats’ side this week, as New England is 34-11 ATS the week following a loss, including 30-6 ATS with Brady starting and not laying 9 points or more. I’ll lean with New England based on those strong team trends.