Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – *New England (+7.5) over MIAMI

• Drake Maye leads the NFL with 37.3 rushing yards per game on scrambles and he has a league-low 9.9% off-target throw rate.
• New England’s offense is averaging 0.03 EPA/play (23rd) with Maye, compared to the -0.15 EPA/play (32nd) they averaged with Jacoby Brissett behind center.
• Miami’s offense is averaging 26.2 points in games that Tua Tagovailoa has started and finished but the Dolphins have converted an entirely unsustainable 57% of their third downs with Tagovailoa and I expect that points per game number to decline as the third down conversion rate regresses towards expectations.
• Tagovailoa is averaging 0.20 more EPA/play on third downs this season than last year and I expect it to go down on Sunday when the Patriots dial up the blitz.
• New England’s defense has a 42% blitz rate (4th-highest) and Miami’s yards per attempt against the blitz is only 84% the yards per attempt versus a standard pass rush (30th).
• Dolphins’ backup right tackle Kendall Lamm will struggle across from edge rusher Keion White, who has 36 pressures (19th).
• Patriots’ interior defender Christian Barmore got his first action of the season last week and he is an upgrade for New England’s defense. Barmore ranked 6th in pass-rushing efficiency as a rookie in 2021 and had 49 pressures last season (14th). Miami LG Robert Jones has surrendered 4 sacks (9th-most) and he might add to the total versus Barmore.
• Our model favors the Dolphins by just 3.8 points with a predicted total of 46.4 points.

New England is a 1-Star Best Bet at +7 or more.