Game Analysis

Lean – New England (+9) over MIAMI

Lean – Under (46.5)

· Miami’s offensive line surrendered 10 pressures last Sunday night after allowing only 5.3 pressures per game in the first six weeks because they were without three starters when LG Isaiah Wynn went out.

· LT Terron Armstead and Wynn will be unavailable again on Sunday, but the Dolphins will likely get starting center Connor Williams back in uniform. Williams ranked 2nd in pass-blocking efficiency in the first 5 weeks but has been out nursing a groin injury.

· Williams will set the protections with Tua Tagovailoa versus a Patriots defense with a 46.9% blitz rate (3rd-highest). Tagovailoa relatively struggles against the blitz as his yards per attempt against the blitz is 75% of his yards per attempt versus a standard pass rush (31st).

· Miami’s offense had only 244 net pass yards and 24 points against New England in week 2. Tyreek Hill averaged a season-low 4.4 yards per target against Bill Belichick’s defense and the All-Pro wide receiver is dealing with a hip injury.

· Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel will counter the Patriots blitz with the screen game. Tagovailoa is targeting running backs on 22.7% of passes (6th-most) and Miami’s offense has a 60% success rate on screens (4th). New England’s defense is surrendering a 50% pass success rate to running backs (27th).

· The Dolphins are leading the league averaging 0.11 EPA/rush, but they will be contained on the ground as the Patriots’ defense is conceding a 32.3% rush success rate (2nd).

· New England RT Vederian Lowe ranked 2nd-worst in pass-blocking efficiency and they benched him while moving guard Mike Onwenu over to tackle, where he conceded just 1 pressure against the Bills. The Patriots also benched guard Atonio Mafi, who ranked 2nd-worst in pass-blocking efficiency.

· Mac Jones’ 2.19 second average time to throw versus the Bills was the 2nd-quickest by any quarterback this season. The fast release along with the offensive line shuffle might have fixed the Patriots pass protection.

· Miami edge defender Bradley Chubb has 29 pressures (11th) but he will be limited by LT Trent Brown, who ranks 7th in pass blocking efficiency.

· New England’s offense is targeting tight ends on 23.8% of passes (7th-most) and TE Hunter Henry has a favorable matchup versus a Dolphins defense surrendering a 67% success rate to tight ends (30th).

· Our model favors Miami by just 7.2 points, with a predicted total of only 43.3 points.