Game Analysis

2-Star Best Bet – **Miami Team Total Under (24.5)

Lean – New England (+3.5)

· Doom and gloom are the only reports coming out of Patriots camp all summer, but I’m having a hard time seeing how this year’s roster is significantly worse than last season.

· Pro Bowl cornerback JC Jackson is the biggest loss on defense, but I think his production can mostly be replaced by the additions of CB Terrance Mitchell and safety Jabrill Peppers. 

· Mitchell looked bad because he was on that terrible Texans defense last season but showed he is competent in 2020 allowing only one reception every 13.8 cover snaps (12th). 

· Peppers will join one of the best safety groups in the NFL alongside Devin McCourty, Kyle Dugger, and Adrian Phillips and I wouldn’t be surprised if Belichick played some unconventional snaps with three or four of them on the field at the same time as teams are constantly searching for ways to stop the run with players comfortable in pass coverage. The Ravens loaded up on safeties in the offseason as well. I think the Big Nickel and Big Dime formations could be the next evolution of defense in the NFL.

· Belichick will cover up the loss of Jackson in the secondary like he has in the past. New England’s scoring defense was 3rd last year after losing Pro Bowl CB Stephon Gilmore. The Patriots conceded 19.7 points in 2014 during CB Darrelle Revis’ All-Pro season and followed it up allowing 19.7 points again in 2015 after Revis left.

· Interior defender Christian Barmore ranked 6th in pass rushing efficiency as a rookie and should dominate during his second year in Belichick’s scheme.

· The market has New England’s defense ranked 25th going into 2022, but I’m going to trust Belichick and I think they’ll be an above average unit per usual.

· Miami’s offense is likely overrated going into this season after making a splashy move acquiring Tyreek Hill. 

· New Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel comes over from San Francisco and will attempt to implement Kyle Shanahan’s offensive scheme, but I don’t think it’s as translatable as Sean McVay’s scheme. Jets offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur had a hard time installing the 49ers principles in New York last season averaging just 5.0 yppl (25th). 

· Tyreek Hill and Miami’s addition of three-time Pro Bowl left tackle Terron Armstead are both worth about a point according to our metrics.

· The Dolphins averaged 21 points in games when Tua Tagovailoa played the majority of snaps last year and I think they will make that 2-point improvement while still being a below average offense.

· Miami’s defense always outplayed their talent in the Brian Flores years but it remains a question if that will continue in 2022. They retain defensive coordinator Josh Boyer and they added edge defender Melvin Ingram. Our priors have them ranked 12th at full strength. 

· However, CB Byron Jones (11 forced incompletions last year) is out to start the season after getting surgery on his left Achilles tendon in March. We have Jones valued at a half point.

· New England’s offense averaged 5.7 yppl (14th) in Mac Jones’s rookie season. I think improvement from Jones in his second year will offset the loss of offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels and this unit should finish around league-average again.

· Our model favors the Patriots by 0.7 with a predicted total of 42.5, which projects the Dolphins at just 20.9 total points.

The Miami Team Total is a 2-Star Best Bet Under 24 points or more.

The alternate play, if you don’t have Team Totals, is 1-Star on New England +3.5 and 1-Star Under 46 points.