Game Analysis
Note: The Under was released to subscribers as a Best Bet early in the week when the total was 45.5 points. The Best Bet no longer qualifies but I’d still lean under.
1-Star Best Bet – *Under (45.5) – LA RAMS (-5) vs New England
New England’s offense scored 45 points last week on only 4.4 yards per play with the help of two special teams touchdowns and a 61 yard punt return that set up another score. Cam Newton had only 69 passing yards on just 19 attempts and the Patriots seem content on using their rushing attack and improving defense to win games. The Rams have the league’s best pass defense by a full point according to our metrics and New England’s game plan this week will look very similar to last week, as the Patriots know they need to run the football and utilize their 2nd-rated ground game.
I expect All-Pro cornerback Stephon Gilmore to shadow Robert Woods while Bill Belichick sends extra men on the inside to limit Cooper Kupp, who is averaging 1.97 yards per slot route run (2nd). Sean McVay knows Jared Goff will likely struggle to move the ball through the air and the Rams will likely come out with a run heavy approach against New England’s defense.
The more running plays there are the more likely a game goes under the total and both teams are likely to run a lot in this game and our model projects just 42.2 total points. The Under is a 1-Star Best Bet at 45 points or more.
The Patriots wisely stayed in Los Angeles to avoid the usual body clock disadvantage associated with an Eastern time zone team playing a night game in the West. Our model favors the Rams by just 3.5 points but New England applies to a 59-134-5 ATS late season road game off 2 or more wins situation while the Rams apply to a 68-25-3 ATS Thursday favorite situation.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
30.0
32.3
-
Succ Pass Plays
46.5%
52.8%
-
Sack Rate
6.7%
4.7%
-
Int Rate
4.0%
4.1%
-
Deep Pass Rate
14.1%
21.1%
-
Big Pass Yards
31.2%
38.8%
-
NYPP
6.2
7.4
Rush
-
Rush Plays
33.2
27.5
-
RB YPR
4.3
4.0
-
Stuff Rate
16.7%
14.4%
-
Succ Rush Plays
52.0%
52.8%
-
Big Rush Yards
40.6%
30.5%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.5
4.3
Game
-
All Snaps
63.2
59.8
-
Early Down Succ
51.9%
56.1%
-
Succ Rate
50.0%
52.9%
-
Big Yards Rate
37.3%
37.0%
-
Yards Per Play
5.4
5.9
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.5%
0.6%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
29.0
29.7
-
Run Ratio
52.7%
46.1%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.9
25.7
-
Game Control
-0.4
0.4
Pass
-
Pass Plays
38.8
39.3
-
Succ Pass Plays
54.8%
44.8%
-
Sack Rate
3.6%
7.6%
-
Int Rate
2.2%
2.5%
-
Deep Pass Rate
16.0%
13.5%
-
Big Pass Yards
37.6%
28.8%
-
NYPP
7.1
5.1
Rush
-
Rush Plays
29.9
23.8
-
RB YPR
4.2
3.7
-
Stuff Rate
22.6%
18.5%
-
Succ Rush Plays
52.2%
48.6%
-
Big Rush Yards
45.6%
27.7%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.1
3.9
Game
-
All Snaps
68.8
63.1
-
Early Down Succ
56.9%
48.9%
-
Succ Rate
53.7%
45.9%
-
Big Yards Rate
39.7%
29.2%
-
Yards Per Play
5.7
4.5
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.2%
1.1%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
27.9
26.8
-
Run Ratio
43.8%
37.7%
-
Starting Field Pos
29.3
28.1
-
Game Control
1.2
-1.2
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2020 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
MIA |
21 – 11 W |
5.7 |
61.9% /
51.6% |
9.5% /
3.2% |
0.0% /
10.0% |
6.7 /
5.9 |
66.7% /
51.9% |
11.9% /
18.5% |
5.2 /
3.2 |
63 /
58 |
68.6% /
55.6% |
65.1% /
51.7% |
33.1% /
23.4% |
5.7 /
4.6 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
66.7% /
46.6% |
29.4 /
20.8 |
| 2 |
@SEA |
30 – 35 L |
-0.4 |
57.8% /
70.0% |
2.2% /
6.7% |
2.3% /
3.6% |
8.8 /
9.2 |
36.0% /
66.7% |
28.0% /
10.0% |
2.7 /
5.1 |
70 /
60 |
48.2% /
71.7% |
50.0% /
68.3% |
33.0% /
36.6% |
6.6 /
7.2 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
35.7% /
50.0% |
17.6 /
31.4 |
| 3 |
LV |
36 – 20 W |
5.7 |
40.0% /
55.9% |
6.7% /
5.9% |
3.6% /
0.0% |
5.2 /
7.3 |
57.9% /
50.0% |
13.2% /
13.6% |
6.6 /
5.7 |
68 /
56 |
56.4% /
57.4% |
50.0% /
53.6% |
52.7% /
44.8% |
6.0 /
6.7 |
0.0% /
5.4% |
55.9% /
39.3% |
27.9 /
27.7 |
| 4 |
@KC |
10 – 26 L |
-5.5 |
38.5% /
53.3% |
5.1% /
3.3% |
8.1% /
0.0% |
4.4 /
7.6 |
48.6% /
36.0% |
8.6% /
12.0% |
5.3 /
3.8 |
74 /
55 |
42.9% /
50.0% |
43.2% /
45.5% |
37.5% /
47.7% |
4.8 /
5.9 |
1.4% /
1.8% |
47.3% /
45.5% |
23.9 /
26.4 |
| 6 |
DEN |
12 – 18 L |
-8.4 |
45.2% /
34.6% |
12.9% /
7.7% |
7.4% /
8.3% |
5.5 /
6.3 |
44.0% /
48.6% |
16.0% /
21.6% |
4.7 /
3.6 |
56 /
63 |
47.5% /
48.9% |
44.6% /
42.9% |
29.2% /
49.5% |
5.1 /
4.7 |
1.8% /
0.0% |
44.6% /
58.7% |
28.5 /
31.7 |
| 7 |
SF |
6 – 33 L |
-15.8 |
44.4% /
65.4% |
7.4% /
3.8% |
16.0% /
8.0% |
5.4 /
10.4 |
45.5% /
67.6% |
9.1% /
16.2% |
4.3 /
5.3 |
49 /
63 |
48.8% /
68.5% |
44.9% /
66.7% |
26.1% /
37.9% |
4.9 /
7.4 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
44.9% /
58.7% |
27.7 /
29.0 |
| 8 |
@BUF |
21 – 24 L |
-3.8 |
48.1% /
47.4% |
7.4% /
5.3% |
0.0% /
5.6% |
6.0 /
7.8 |
55.9% /
52.6% |
11.8% /
10.5% |
5.5 /
5.0 |
61 /
57 |
52.9% /
55.8% |
52.5% /
50.9% |
37.8% /
54.0% |
5.7 /
5.9 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
55.7% /
66.7% |
32.4 /
23.6 |
| 9 |
@NYJ |
30 – 27 W |
-4.1 |
48.6% /
65.4% |
0.0% /
3.8% |
0.0% /
4.0% |
7.8 /
9.9 |
58.5% /
50.0% |
14.6% /
5.6% |
3.9 /
3.6 |
76 /
44 |
55.2% /
58.8% |
53.9% /
59.1% |
39.3% /
41.6% |
5.7 /
7.3 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
53.9% /
40.9% |
21.1 /
23.5 |
| 10 |
BAL |
23 – 17 W |
3.8 |
52.6% /
44.4% |
5.3% /
5.6% |
0.0% /
2.9% |
7.1 /
6.7 |
59.0% /
64.3% |
23.1% /
14.3% |
4.4 /
4.1 |
58 /
64 |
61.4% /
56.3% |
56.9% /
53.1% |
48.1% /
20.7% |
5.3 /
5.6 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
67.2% /
43.8% |
30.0 /
21.8 |
| 11 |
@HOU |
20 – 27 L |
-3.3 |
47.6% /
67.6% |
4.8% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
8.3 /
9.3 |
54.2% /
21.1% |
20.8% /
31.6% |
3.6 /
2.9 |
66 /
56 |
51.0% /
53.3% |
50.0% /
51.8% |
43.0% /
47.4% |
6.6 /
7.1 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
36.4% /
33.9% |
23.4 /
24.4 |
| 12 |
ARI |
20 – 17 W |
-1.5 |
38.1% /
50.0% |
14.3% /
5.6% |
11.1% /
2.9% |
3.3 /
4.4 |
46.7% /
58.8% |
30.0% /
11.8% |
3.7 /
4.1 |
51 /
70 |
43.6% /
58.2% |
43.1% /
54.3% |
26.3% /
14.1% |
3.5 /
4.3 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
58.8% /
48.6% |
38.8 /
30.8 |
| 13 |
@LAC |
45 – 0 W |
23.2 |
34.8% /
28.6% |
4.3% /
5.4% |
0.0% /
3.8% |
5.5 /
3.4 |
51.2% /
66.7% |
14.0% /
6.7% |
3.8 /
4.7 |
66 /
71 |
46.9% /
38.3% |
45.5% /
36.6% |
41.9% /
26.4% |
4.4 /
3.6 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
65.2% /
21.1% |
45.6 /
17.6 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2020 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
DAL |
20 – 17 W |
3.4 |
56.3% /
52.4% |
3.1% /
7.1% |
3.2% /
0.0% |
8.4 /
5.8 |
57.5% /
59.3% |
12.5% /
11.1% |
3.8 /
5.0 |
72 /
69 |
57.7% /
63.0% |
56.9% /
55.1% |
40.3% /
30.8% |
5.9 /
5.5 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
55.6% /
39.1% |
29.0 /
27.1 |
| 2 |
@PHI |
37 – 19 W |
9.4 |
67.9% /
46.5% |
3.6% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
4.7% |
9.2 /
5.6 |
59.0% /
73.1% |
12.8% /
0.0% |
4.9 /
4.7 |
67 /
69 |
65.4% /
57.1% |
62.7% /
56.5% |
52.8% /
17.1% |
6.7 /
5.3 |
1.5% /
1.4% |
58.2% /
37.7% |
31.6 /
29.1 |
| 3 |
@BUF |
32 – 35 L |
-8.9 |
58.8% /
56.8% |
5.9% /
10.8% |
3.1% /
3.0% |
9.1 /
7.4 |
68.8% /
61.9% |
18.8% /
14.3% |
5.2 /
4.8 |
66 /
58 |
65.5% /
59.6% |
63.6% /
58.6% |
48.3% /
57.1% |
7.2 /
6.5 |
1.5% /
1.7% |
48.5% /
36.2% |
27.0 /
32.9 |
| 4 |
NYG |
17 – 9 W |
4.1 |
50.0% /
41.5% |
5.9% /
12.2% |
0.0% /
2.8% |
5.4 /
3.9 |
47.8% /
56.0% |
17.4% /
12.0% |
2.5 /
5.4 |
57 /
66 |
53.7% /
51.0% |
49.1% /
47.0% |
28.3% /
34.9% |
4.2 /
4.5 |
1.8% /
0.0% |
40.4% /
37.9% |
23.6 /
31.0 |
| 5 |
@WAS |
30 – 10 W |
9.8 |
48.4% /
26.3% |
3.2% /
21.1% |
3.3% /
0.0% |
9.7 /
1.8 |
40.0% /
42.9% |
28.6% /
35.7% |
3.7 /
2.7 |
66 /
52 |
46.9% /
36.8% |
43.9% /
30.8% |
59.4% /
0.0% |
6.5 /
2.1 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
53.0% /
26.9% |
31.0 /
22.6 |
| 6 |
@SF |
16 – 24 L |
-10.5 |
42.1% /
57.6% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
2.6% /
0.0% |
5.2 /
8.1 |
63.2% /
37.8% |
26.3% /
18.9% |
5.9 /
3.3 |
57 /
70 |
54.5% /
50.0% |
49.1% /
47.1% |
43.1% /
33.1% |
5.5 /
5.6 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
33.3% /
52.9% |
26.4 /
22.3 |
| 7 |
CHI |
24 – 10 W |
9.2 |
52.9% /
40.9% |
2.9% /
9.1% |
0.0% /
5.0% |
6.2 /
5.2 |
44.1% /
29.4% |
29.4% /
17.6% |
4.7 /
2.9 |
68 /
61 |
54.7% /
41.9% |
48.5% /
37.7% |
41.2% /
32.6% |
5.5 /
4.6 |
1.5% /
0.0% |
50.0% /
27.9% |
34.4 /
16.3 |
| 8 |
@MIA |
17 – 28 L |
-9.2 |
46.0% /
43.5% |
3.2% /
4.3% |
3.3% /
0.0% |
5.4 /
3.9 |
65.5% /
40.0% |
13.8% /
24.0% |
4.5 /
2.2 |
92 /
48 |
56.2% /
48.6% |
52.2% /
41.7% |
21.0% /
0.0% |
5.1 /
3.0 |
2.2% /
4.2% |
31.5% /
52.1% |
28.2 /
34.6 |
| 10 |
SEA |
23 – 16 W |
5.6 |
52.5% /
44.2% |
7.5% /
14.0% |
0.0% /
5.4% |
7.1 /
5.1 |
55.2% /
45.5% |
20.7% /
9.1% |
3.7 /
5.1 |
69 /
65 |
52.9% /
43.1% |
53.6% /
44.6% |
35.2% /
40.5% |
5.6 /
5.1 |
1.4% /
1.5% |
42.0% /
33.8% |
29.0 /
28.1 |
| 11 |
@TB |
27 – 24 W |
2.4 |
60.8% /
42.9% |
0.0% /
2.0% |
3.9% /
4.2% |
7.4 /
4.3 |
20.0% /
44.4% |
50.0% /
22.2% |
1.9 /
2.3 |
71 /
67 |
49.1% /
42.3% |
49.3% /
43.3% |
34.9% /
0.0% |
5.8 /
3.7 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
28.2% /
26.9% |
29.3 /
32.4 |
| 12 |
SF |
20 – 23 L |
-3.4 |
57.6% /
43.2% |
6.1% /
5.4% |
6.5% /
2.9% |
5.5 /
6.3 |
53.6% /
45.5% |
25.0% /
24.2% |
4.5 /
3.5 |
61 /
70 |
63.8% /
49.1% |
55.7% /
44.3% |
40.3% /
56.6% |
5.0 /
5.0 |
3.3% /
2.9% |
45.9% /
47.1% |
26.9 /
28.1 |
| 13 |
@ARI |
38 – 28 W |
2.4 |
64.6% /
41.5% |
2.1% /
4.9% |
0.0% /
2.6% |
7.2 /
3.4 |
51.6% /
47.6% |
16.1% /
33.3% |
3.8 /
4.4 |
79 /
62 |
62.7% /
44.7% |
59.5% /
43.5% |
31.3% /
47.4% |
5.9 /
3.7 |
1.3% /
1.6% |
39.2% /
33.9% |
35.0 /
32.1 |
New England Patriots
@ 
Los Angeles Rams