Game Analysis
Strong Opinion – Indianapolis Team Total Over (23.5 -115)
Lean – INDIANAPOLIS (-2.5) over New England
The Colts are well suited to beat New England’s defense underneath on Saturday night even though I don’t think we’ll see much from the Indianapolis downfield passing attack. Michael Pittman is averaging 1.96 yards per route run (16th) but I expect Bill Belichick to scheme him out of the game. That opens the door for Carson Wentz to find TY Hilton on intermediate routes and go to the screen game. Jonathan Taylor and Nyheim Hines are both averaging 1.53 yards per route run (8th) and New England’s defense has surrendered 704 receiving yards RBs (29th). Taylor should also be able to move the ball on the ground against a Patriots rush defense ranked 27th.
Colts DT DeForest Buckner ranks 10th in pass rushing efficiency, but New England’s interior offensive line is conceding only 2.5 pressure per game and Mac Jones should have time in the pocket to move the ball through the air unlike last game when he had only three passing attempts.
Our model favors the Colts by 4.4 points, with a predicted total of 48.5 points, and Indy applies to an 86-22-1 ATS situation that plays on home teams against elite defensive teams (i.e. teams allowing less than 16.5 points per game). The Colts team total over 23.5 is a Strong Opinion at -120 odds or better and the alternative (if you can’t play team totals) is Over 45 or less.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
32.08
35.54
-
Succ Pass Plays
49.4%
43.5%
-
Sack Rate
5.5%
6.9%
-
Int Rate
2.0%
4.4%
-
Deep Pass Rate
15.9%
19.4%
-
Big Pass Yards
42.2%
32.4%
-
NYPP
6.99
5.50
Rush
-
Rush Plays
29.23
25.92
-
RB YPR
4.27
4.35
-
Stuff Rate
26.8%
20.8%
-
Succ Rush Plays
48.4%
45.7%
-
Big Rush Yards
51.7%
44.5%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.22
4.41
Game
-
All Snaps
61.31
61.46
-
Early Down Succ
51.3%
48.1%
-
Succ Rate
48.9%
44.4%
-
Big Yards Rate
45.4%
36.7%
-
Yards Per Play
5.67
5.04
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.0%
0.9%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
30.50
28.81
-
Run Ratio
47.7%
42.2%
-
Starting Field Pos
32.46
26.78
-
Game Control
4.20
-4.20
Pass
-
Pass Plays
34.38
36.46
-
Succ Pass Plays
44.3%
50.0%
-
Sack Rate
4.9%
6.1%
-
Int Rate
1.4%
3.1%
-
Deep Pass Rate
17.0%
15.3%
-
Big Pass Yards
37.8%
31.2%
-
NYPP
6.29
6.31
Rush
-
Rush Plays
29.46
24.69
-
RB YPR
5.11
4.34
-
Stuff Rate
23.0%
22.1%
-
Succ Rush Plays
53.5%
50.2%
-
Big Rush Yards
53.5%
44.3%
-
Yards Per Rush
5.15
4.53
Game
-
All Snaps
63.85
61.15
-
Early Down Succ
50.4%
54.3%
-
Succ Rate
48.6%
50.1%
-
Big Yards Rate
44.0%
35.3%
-
Yards Per Play
5.77
5.59
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.1%
1.6%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
30.62
28.28
-
Run Ratio
46.1%
40.4%
-
Starting Field Pos
31.44
26.23
-
Game Control
5.08
-5.08
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2021 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
MIA |
16 – 17 L |
-3.18 |
56.4% /
51.7% |
0.0% /
6.9% |
0.0% /
3.7% |
7.21 /
6.38 |
56.7% /
56.5% |
13.3% /
30.4% |
4.17 /
3.22 |
69 /
52 |
52.8% /
58.5% |
56.5% /
53.8% |
36.9% /
43.1% |
5.88 /
4.98 |
2.9% /
0.0% |
43.5% /
44.2% |
27.63 /
25.11 |
| 2 |
@NYJ |
25 – 6 W |
10.53 |
36.4% /
35.1% |
9.1% /
10.8% |
0.0% /
12.1% |
4.82 /
4.97 |
54.2% /
51.6% |
20.8% /
29.0% |
4.21 /
4.90 |
57 /
68 |
50.0% /
45.1% |
43.9% /
42.6% |
48.1% /
50.0% |
4.56 /
4.94 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
42.1% /
45.6% |
40.00 /
24.58 |
| 3 |
NO |
13 – 28 L |
-10.20 |
35.8% /
50.0% |
3.8% /
12.5% |
5.9% /
0.0% |
4.74 /
4.58 |
41.2% /
50.0% |
23.5% /
18.4% |
2.88 /
3.74 |
70 /
62 |
37.0% /
53.2% |
37.1% /
50.0% |
28.8% /
9.3% |
4.29 /
4.06 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
24.3% /
61.3% |
27.92 /
32.92 |
| 4 |
TB |
17 – 19 L |
-0.20 |
54.3% /
40.9% |
8.7% /
2.3% |
2.4% /
0.0% |
6.41 /
5.93 |
25.0% /
53.3% |
75.0% /
23.3% |
-0.13 /
3.97 |
54 /
74 |
59.5% /
46.3% |
50.0% /
45.9% |
22.6% /
42.3% |
5.44 /
5.14 |
1.9% /
0.0% |
14.8% /
40.5% |
29.64 /
25.64 |
| 5 |
@HST |
25 – 22 W |
-5.14 |
54.8% /
46.9% |
3.2% /
9.4% |
3.3% /
0.0% |
7.29 /
9.16 |
56.7% /
20.8% |
30.0% /
12.5% |
4.20 /
2.79 |
61 /
56 |
57.1% /
29.7% |
55.7% /
35.7% |
38.9% /
47.8% |
5.77 /
6.43 |
1.6% /
1.8% |
49.2% /
42.9% |
33.33 /
27.22 |
| 6 |
DAL |
29 – 35 L |
2.00 |
52.2% /
52.9% |
8.7% /
0.0% |
4.8% /
2.0% |
9.35 /
8.73 |
51.9% /
35.5% |
18.5% /
29.0% |
4.44 /
3.94 |
50 /
82 |
57.5% /
50.8% |
52.0% /
46.3% |
56.4% /
39.7% |
6.70 /
6.91 |
2.0% /
1.2% |
54.0% /
37.8% |
30.38 /
29.00 |
| 7 |
NYJ |
54 – 13 W |
19.28 |
54.8% /
52.3% |
2.4% /
4.5% |
0.0% /
4.8% |
9.60 /
5.39 |
50.0% /
52.9% |
31.3% /
17.6% |
4.63 /
3.65 |
74 /
61 |
50.8% /
55.6% |
52.7% /
52.5% |
69.8% /
26.3% |
7.45 /
4.90 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
43.2% /
27.9% |
35.27 /
25.64 |
| 8 |
@LAC |
27 – 24 W |
-0.77 |
44.4% /
39.5% |
2.8% /
7.9% |
0.0% /
5.7% |
5.86 /
5.42 |
59.0% /
40.0% |
23.1% /
15.0% |
3.62 /
8.15 |
75 /
58 |
54.5% /
42.9% |
52.0% /
39.7% |
28.1% /
46.1% |
4.69 /
6.36 |
1.3% /
0.0% |
52.0% /
34.5% |
37.18 /
20.25 |
| 9 |
@CAR |
24 – 6 W |
7.64 |
35.0% /
32.4% |
10.0% /
2.9% |
5.6% /
9.1% |
6.10 /
4.76 |
46.2% /
39.1% |
23.1% /
17.4% |
3.87 /
3.39 |
59 /
57 |
41.9% /
38.6% |
42.4% /
35.1% |
49.7% /
29.6% |
4.63 /
4.21 |
1.7% /
0.0% |
66.1% /
40.4% |
35.10 /
30.82 |
| 10 |
CLV |
45 – 7 W |
14.20 |
64.3% /
39.5% |
7.1% /
13.2% |
0.0% /
3.0% |
9.57 /
3.11 |
52.9% /
45.0% |
26.5% /
20.0% |
5.41 /
4.95 |
62 /
58 |
55.8% /
51.2% |
58.1% /
41.4% |
56.7% /
20.9% |
7.29 /
3.74 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
54.8% /
34.5% |
28.78 /
22.11 |
| 11 |
@ATL |
25 – 0 W |
9.70 |
51.7% /
41.7% |
10.3% /
11.1% |
3.8% /
12.5% |
6.00 /
3.47 |
50.0% /
31.3% |
33.3% /
43.8% |
4.47 /
2.50 |
59 /
52 |
57.8% /
45.9% |
50.8% /
38.5% |
25.5% /
11.1% |
5.22 /
3.17 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
50.8% /
30.8% |
33.00 /
21.45 |
| 12 |
TEN |
36 – 13 W |
7.84 |
55.9% /
34.8% |
5.9% /
8.7% |
0.0% /
4.8% |
8.50 /
3.70 |
41.7% /
59.0% |
20.8% /
7.7% |
4.38 /
6.92 |
58 /
62 |
53.2% /
53.2% |
50.0% /
50.0% |
49.4% /
52.1% |
6.79 /
5.73 |
0.0% /
4.8% |
41.4% /
62.9% |
40.91 /
23.82 |
| 13 |
@BUF |
14 – 10 W |
2.88 |
33.3% /
43.8% |
0.0% /
6.3% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.33 /
4.09 |
30.4% /
44.0% |
37.0% /
16.0% |
4.83 /
3.96 |
49 /
57 |
34.3% /
51.2% |
30.6% /
43.9% |
66.4% /
26.2% |
4.92 /
4.04 |
2.0% /
1.8% |
93.9% /
43.9% |
22.90 /
39.60 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2021 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
SEA |
16 – 28 L |
-7.55 |
48.8% /
57.7% |
7.3% /
11.5% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
5.44 /
9.27 |
60.0% /
66.7% |
13.3% /
14.8% |
3.77 /
5.19 |
71 /
53 |
60.0% /
69.0% |
53.5% /
62.3% |
9.9% /
51.0% |
4.73 /
7.19 |
1.4% /
1.9% |
42.3% /
50.9% |
23.18 /
32.70 |
| 2 |
LA |
24 – 27 L |
-3.60 |
46.2% /
58.1% |
7.7% /
3.2% |
5.6% /
3.3% |
6.28 /
8.71 |
53.8% /
50.0% |
23.1% /
21.4% |
4.19 /
3.61 |
65 /
59 |
51.9% /
59.2% |
49.2% /
54.2% |
36.2% /
40.6% |
5.45 /
6.29 |
0.0% /
1.7% |
40.0% /
47.5% |
29.70 /
24.40 |
| 3 |
@TEN |
16 – 25 L |
-4.29 |
30.8% /
53.6% |
5.1% /
3.6% |
0.0% /
7.4% |
4.56 /
6.71 |
61.1% /
37.8% |
16.7% /
27.0% |
4.83 /
4.86 |
57 /
65 |
42.9% /
42.3% |
40.4% /
44.6% |
30.6% /
39.8% |
4.65 /
5.66 |
0.0% /
1.5% |
31.6% /
56.9% |
31.44 /
26.78 |
| 4 |
@MIA |
27 – 17 W |
4.25 |
35.3% /
51.5% |
5.9% /
9.1% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.18 /
5.09 |
42.4% /
50.0% |
39.4% /
31.3% |
4.21 /
2.19 |
67 /
49 |
37.3% /
58.8% |
38.8% /
51.0% |
56.1% /
47.4% |
5.21 /
4.14 |
1.5% /
4.1% |
49.3% /
32.7% |
32.40 /
31.50 |
| 5 |
@BLT |
25 – 31 L |
8.82 |
54.1% /
77.8% |
5.4% /
4.4% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
10.54 /
9.71 |
61.5% /
44.0% |
23.1% /
24.0% |
4.73 /
3.44 |
63 /
70 |
58.8% /
71.7% |
57.1% /
65.7% |
61.7% /
32.4% |
8.14 /
7.47 |
1.6% /
1.4% |
41.3% /
35.7% |
22.50 /
20.80 |
| 6 |
HST |
31 – 3 W |
12.03 |
40.9% /
51.1% |
9.1% /
4.4% |
0.0% /
4.7% |
9.73 /
5.09 |
30.8% /
34.5% |
26.9% /
34.5% |
6.69 /
4.28 |
48 /
74 |
36.1% /
41.8% |
35.4% /
44.6% |
65.5% /
24.5% |
8.08 /
4.77 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
54.2% /
39.2% |
25.00 /
23.55 |
| 7 |
@SF |
30 – 18 W |
-0.02 |
25.9% /
37.9% |
3.7% /
6.9% |
0.0% /
7.4% |
5.44 /
5.83 |
42.4% /
50.0% |
33.3% /
20.8% |
4.48 /
4.63 |
60 /
53 |
31.8% /
53.7% |
35.0% /
43.4% |
54.0% /
49.3% |
4.92 /
5.28 |
3.3% /
3.8% |
55.0% /
45.3% |
36.46 /
28.36 |
| 8 |
TEN |
31 – 34 L |
3.46 |
42.3% /
43.2% |
1.9% /
8.1% |
3.9% /
5.9% |
4.31 /
6.68 |
70.0% /
35.5% |
5.0% /
25.8% |
4.15 /
3.00 |
72 /
68 |
50.9% /
37.0% |
50.0% /
39.7% |
31.2% /
23.2% |
4.26 /
5.00 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
27.8% /
45.6% |
30.92 /
29.25 |
| 9 |
NYJ |
45 – 30 W |
13.38 |
64.5% /
50.0% |
3.2% /
3.7% |
0.0% /
1.9% |
8.77 /
7.37 |
50.0% /
57.1% |
16.7% /
19.0% |
8.67 /
4.19 |
61 /
75 |
60.4% /
51.7% |
57.4% /
52.0% |
58.3% /
24.2% |
8.72 /
6.48 |
0.0% /
1.3% |
49.2% /
28.0% |
29.00 /
20.45 |
| 10 |
JAX |
23 – 17 W |
8.74 |
34.3% /
34.2% |
2.9% /
7.9% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
4.80 /
4.00 |
48.1% /
58.3% |
29.6% /
16.7% |
4.70 /
7.46 |
62 /
62 |
45.7% /
50.0% |
40.3% /
43.5% |
26.4% /
49.0% |
4.76 /
5.34 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
43.5% /
38.7% |
25.50 /
26.62 |
| 11 |
@BUF |
41 – 15 W |
15.20 |
45.0% /
51.2% |
0.0% /
2.4% |
0.0% /
7.5% |
5.30 /
5.27 |
65.2% /
69.2% |
19.6% /
7.7% |
5.74 /
7.00 |
66 /
54 |
58.5% /
58.1% |
59.1% /
55.6% |
43.0% /
27.9% |
5.61 /
5.69 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
69.7% /
24.1% |
46.56 /
22.56 |
| 12 |
TB |
31 – 38 L |
1.88 |
51.1% /
50.0% |
6.4% /
5.6% |
4.5% /
2.9% |
6.06 /
6.03 |
55.0% /
77.8% |
20.0% /
7.4% |
5.35 /
5.26 |
67 /
63 |
54.9% /
69.8% |
52.2% /
61.9% |
42.4% /
38.0% |
5.85 /
5.70 |
4.5% /
1.6% |
29.9% /
42.9% |
33.50 /
33.15 |
| 13 |
@HST |
31 – 0 W |
13.77 |
56.5% /
25.8% |
4.3% /
12.9% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.57 /
1.84 |
56.3% /
36.8% |
22.9% /
31.6% |
4.96 /
4.42 |
71 /
50 |
56.1% /
36.4% |
56.3% /
30.0% |
36.4% /
9.0% |
5.48 /
2.82 |
1.4% /
2.0% |
67.6% /
38.0% |
42.50 /
20.82 |
New England Patriots
@ 
Indianapolis Colts