New England Patriots @ Denver Broncos Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Lean – DENVER (+7.5) over New England

Denver has been plagued by an average turnover margin of -1.5 per game, this year’s Browns are the only other team in the last 5 seasons that low and I expect the Broncos to improve in the all-important turnover margin component going forward. Despite all their problems at quarterback, the Broncos offense still ranks 22nd in yards per play and their compensated yards per play differential is still positive. Denver is still a decent team if they stop turning the ball over and that struggling Broncos’ offense could find some success this week against a New England defense that is surrendering 6.7 yppl, which is by far the worst in the league. Brock Osweiler did not look good against the Eagles and his career yards per pass play is down to just 5.4 yppp but I expect Denver to focus on their ground game against a Patriots defense surrendering a league worst 5.1 ypr.

The Patriots are somehow 6-2 with a -0.7 net yppl, which speaks to how good an in-game coach Bill Belichick is. New England has relied on Tom Brady all season, as their passing offense ranks 2nd in my numbers, and while the Broncos ‘No Fly Zone’ passing defense hasn’t enjoyed as much success as in years past, they still rank 12th in yards per pass play allowed at 5.7 yppp. Denver is struggling but New England’s defense is still an issue and the Broncos are good enough defensively to keep the Pats’ attack in check. My ratings see some value with the Broncos at +7 or more.

Team Stats
Game Log

Patriots
Broncos

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 41.3 38.8
Succ Pass Plays 48.9% 53.7%
Sack Rate 6.3% 5.1%
Int Rate 0.6% 2.2%
Deep Pass Rate 23.0% 24.5%
Big Pass Yards 41.4% 40.5%
NYPP 7.4 7.7

Rush

Rush Plays 28.3 24.9
RB YPR 3.9 4.7
Stuff Rate 20.6% 17.3%
Succ Rush Plays 53.7% 51.7%
Big Rush Yards 22.3% 42.0%
Yards Per Rush 3.9 5.0

Game

All Snaps 69.5 63.6
Early Down Succ 53.2% 57.5%
Succ Rate 51.0% 52.9%
Big Yards Rate 37.0% 42.2%
Yards Per Play 6.0 6.6
Fumble Lost Rate 0.6% 0.6%
Time Per Play (sec) 27.1 27.0
Run Ratio 40.4% 39.2%
Starting Field Pos 28.2 24.7
Game Control 4.4 -4.4

Points 27.0 22.4

2017 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	KC	27 – 42 L	1.8	33.3% / 60.5%	7.7% / 7.9%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.3 / 9.3	50.0% / 42.4%	25.0% / 9.1%	3.5 / 5.7	75 / 71	46.4% / 63.5%	41.3% / 52.1%	54.8% / 53.7%	5.0 / 7.6	0.0% / 1.4%	48.0% / 46.5%	27.8 / 25.5
2	@NO	36 – 20 W	14.2	61.0% / 51.1%	4.9% / 2.2%	0.0% / 0.0%	10.6 / 7.7	51.6% / 47.1%	22.6% / 11.8%	3.8 / 4.8	72 / 62	58.3% / 54.2%	56.9% / 50.0%	53.2% / 48.3%	7.7 / 6.9	0.0% / 0.0%	43.1% / 27.4%	27.5 / 27.9
3	HOU	36 – 33 W	1.2	47.5% / 48.6%	12.5% / 5.7%	0.0% / 6.1%	8.4 / 8.3	45.0% / 56.3%	30.0% / 15.6%	3.0 / 3.9	60 / 67	46.8% / 54.7%	46.7% / 52.2%	52.3% / 38.8%	6.6 / 6.2	1.7% / 0.0%	33.3% / 47.8%	28.8 / 24.0
4	CAR	30 – 33 L	-1.9	60.4% / 61.3%	6.3% / 6.5%	0.0% / 3.4%	6.1 / 9.8	73.7% / 51.7%	21.1% / 20.7%	4.2 / 4.8	67 / 60	66.7% / 54.9%	64.2% / 56.7%	22.0% / 48.0%	5.6 / 7.4	0.0% / 1.7%	28.4% / 48.3%	26.1 / 26.7
5	@TB	19 – 14 W	4.4	51.2% / 48.9%	7.0% / 4.3%	2.5% / 0.0%	6.7 / 6.8	47.8% / 55.0%	17.4% / 20.0%	4.9 / 4.5	66 / 67	53.7% / 55.6%	50.0% / 50.7%	24.6% / 37.2%	6.1 / 6.1	1.5% / 0.0%	34.8% / 29.9%	27.7 / 27.4
6	@NYJ	24 – 17 W	-0.1	39.5% / 54.0%	0.0% / 8.0%	2.6% / 4.3%	6.8 / 6.7	61.5% / 40.0%	7.7% / 24.0%	4.6 / 3.0	64 / 75	49.0% / 50.9%	48.4% / 49.3%	29.5% / 46.0%	5.9 / 5.5	1.6% / 1.3%	40.6% / 33.3%	28.7 / 24.0
7	ATL	23 – 7 W	11.4	48.4% / 58.8%	6.5% / 2.9%	0.0% / 0.0%	7.8 / 6.6	56.4% / 54.5%	12.8% / 18.2%	4.2 / 5.5	70 / 56	57.7% / 65.9%	52.9% / 57.1%	38.4% / 26.8%	5.8 / 6.1	0.0% / 0.0%	55.7% / 39.3%	28.8 / 21.9
8	LAC	21 – 13 W	4.4	50.0% / 46.7%	6.0% / 3.3%	0.0% / 3.4%	6.3 / 6.4	43.8% / 66.7%	28.1% / 19.0%	3.0 / 7.5	82 / 51	46.8% / 60.0%	47.6% / 54.9%	21.3% / 38.7%	5.0 / 6.8	0.0% / 0.0%	39.0% / 41.2%	30.5 / 20.5

2017 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	LAC	24 – 21 W	6.6	50.0% / 47.1%	12.5% / 2.9%	3.6% / 3.0%	5.7 / 5.4	40.5% / 27.3%	18.9% / 31.8%	3.8 / 2.9	69 / 56	44.2% / 42.9%	44.9% / 39.3%	47.8% / 27.7%	4.7 / 4.4	1.4% / 0.0%	53.6% / 39.3%	31.8 / 31.6
2	DAL	42 – 17 W	11.9	64.7% / 42.3%	5.9% / 3.8%	3.1% / 4.0%	5.9 / 4.4	52.5% / 28.6%	17.5% / 42.9%	4.5 / 2.9	74 / 66	59.6% / 44.7%	58.1% / 39.4%	30.7% / 14.6%	5.1 / 4.1	1.4% / 0.0%	54.1% / 21.2%	26.9 / 37.6
3	@BUF	16 – 26 L	-1.6	37.2% / 50.0%	7.0% / 13.3%	5.0% / 0.0%	5.9 / 6.6	39.1% / 27.0%	26.1% / 27.0%	4.8 / 2.1	66 / 67	38.0% / 42.2%	37.9% / 37.3%	59.3% / 44.4%	5.5 / 4.1	0.0% / 0.0%	34.8% / 55.2%	23.7 / 39.8
4	OAK	16 – 10 W	6.7	33.3% / 36.8%	13.3% / 7.9%	0.0% / 2.9%	5.2 / 6.1	31.4% / 33.3%	22.9% / 46.7%	4.2 / 1.6	65 / 53	36.4% / 44.7%	32.3% / 35.8%	39.5% / 52.8%	4.6 / 4.8	0.0% / 0.0%	53.8% / 28.3%	28.8 / 24.7
6	NYG	10 – 23 L	-10.4	35.1% / 40.9%	7.0% / 13.6%	3.8% / 0.0%	6.4 / 5.4	44.4% / 18.8%	11.1% / 40.6%	2.6 / 4.6	75 / 54	40.0% / 27.5%	37.3% / 27.8%	47.0% / 53.4%	5.5 / 4.9	1.3% / 0.0%	24.0% / 59.3%	27.0 / 31.2
7	@LAC	0 – 21 L	-11.1	35.0% / 34.5%	12.5% / 10.3%	2.9% / 0.0%	4.6 / 5.6	21.1% / 19.2%	21.1% / 42.3%	3.6 / 3.1	59 / 55	32.6% / 28.6%	30.5% / 27.3%	13.5% / 44.6%	4.3 / 4.4	3.4% / 0.0%	32.2% / 47.3%	23.2 / 29.8
8	@KC	19 – 29 L	-11.9	41.0% / 36.4%	7.7% / 3.0%	8.3% / 3.1%	4.8 / 6.0	61.3% / 25.9%	12.9% / 37.0%	5.7 / 3.0	70 / 60	53.6% / 37.0%	50.0% / 31.7%	39.0% / 52.0%	5.2 / 4.6	2.9% / 1.7%	44.3% / 45.0%	23.9 / 40.0
9	@PHI	23 – 51 L	-19.2	36.6% / 50.0%	7.3% / 6.7%	5.3% / 0.0%	4.7 / 7.4	36.8% / 47.4%	31.6% / 26.3%	1.8 / 5.2	60 / 68	39.1% / 53.1%	36.7% / 48.5%	27.4% / 52.9%	3.8 / 6.2	0.0% / 1.5%	31.7% / 55.9%	26.1 / 37.7

New England Patriots @

Denver Broncos

Sun, Nov 12

5:30 PM Pacific

Game Analysis