Game Analysis

BUFFALO (-7) vs New England

· Josh Allen has roasted Bill Belichick’s defense since the infamous Monday night game with extremely high winds last season. Allen is averaging 8.0 yppp in his last three starts versus the Patriots.

· New England’s defense was without three of the top 5 cornerbacks last week but limited a combination of Teddy Bridgewater and Skylar Thompson to only 5.9 yppp. Now it looks like both Marcus Jones and Myles Bryant will return on Sunday.

· The Patriots are also thankful to have back for the stretch run interior defender Christian Barmore, who missed the last game against Buffalo but led New England with 6 pressures last week. Barmore has only played about half this season, but it looks like he’s getting back to his 2021 standard where he ranked 6th in pass rushing efficiency.

· Bills RT Spencer Brown ranks 53rd in pass blocking efficiency out of 58 qualifying tackles and he will struggle versus edge defender Matthew Judon, who has 15.5 sacks (3rd).

· The Patriots won last week’s game with an interception return by S Kyle Dugar. New England has gained 34 expected points on pick-6s this season which is higher than the Patriots +29 point differential overall. I think New England’s defense will need a touchdown in this game to get the upset and clinch a playoff berth.

· Mac Jones was frustrated with using only quick game against Buffalo’s defense in week 13 and I think the Patriots will take more shots downfield on Sunday. Jones averaged just 6.0 air yards per attempt in the last game.

· RB Rhamondre Stevenson’s 81 targets are 3rd-most among running backs this season, but he will be shut down in this matchup. Buffalo linebackers Tremaine Edmunds and Matt Milano both rank top 3 in coverage grade by PFF and Bills are allowing just 4.9 yards per target to opposing running backs (5th).

· Furthermore, Buffalo’s defense ranks 3rd in EPA/rush allowed and Stevenson will be limited on the ground.

· New England backup RT Conor McDermott is in trouble across from edge rusher Gregory Rousseau, who has 37 pressures in only 256 pass rushing snaps.

· Our model favors the Bills by 6.0 with a predicted total of 45.4.