Game Analysis
1-Star Best Bet – *BUFFALO (-4) over New England
Lean – Over (44)
We will likely see this game played in extremely cold conditions on Saturday, but it is not expected to windy, and wind affects scoring more than cold does – as was the case when these teams met here in the regular season. In fact, the average points scored in 30 games played at less than 20 Fahrenheit with wind less than 10 mph is 44.8 points since 2000 which is about half point higher than the average for all games (44.2) in that time span. The market tends to overreact to the cold weather games a bit, as the over is 54.6% in 64 games under 20 degrees since 2000.
The Bills have the best offense in the NFL going into the playoffs according to our metrics and the Patriots have an overrated defense. New England has gone against the 4th-easiest set of opposing offenses this season by yards per play. The Patriots held Buffalo’s offense to 10 points in week 13 but there was not much to be gleaned from that night because there was sleet and 30 mph winds. Josh Allen averaged 6.7 yppp versus New England’s defense three weeks ago in Foxboro and added 64 yards on the ground.
Patriots’ DT Christian Barmore ranks 7th in pass rushing efficiency, but he had to be carted to the locker room with under two minutes left in last Sunday’s game and will likely be limited if he is able to suit up. Buffalo’s offense will be able to devote more resources to stopping edge defender Matthew Judon (6th in pass rushing efficiency), who had just one pressure against the Bills in week 16.
In the last two decades, rookie quarterbacks are averaging only 4.8 yards per pass play in the first round of the playoffs. Mac Jones averaged just 5.7 yppp in seven games versus teams ranked in the top 10 in pressure rate (Miami x2, New Orleans, Tampa Bay, Carolina, and 2 x Buffalo) and he’s averaged just 4.4 yppp against the Bills, including just 4.2 yppp in the good weather game in Foxboro between these teams (only 3 pass plays for 19 yards in the bad weather game). New England RB Brandon Bolden is averaging 1.94 yards per route run (2nd) but Buffalo’s defense has conceded just 495 yards to opposing running backs out of the backfield (5th). The Bills have conceded only 629 yards to opposing tight ends (6th) and will limit TE Hunter Henry, who averages 1.50 yards per route run (8th).
Our model makes Buffalo a 7.5-point favorite with a predicted total of 47.6. The Patriots have been 59.2% ATS in all regular season games since 2000, when Bill Belichick became the head coach, but they’re a modest 21-19-1 ATS in postseason games during that span and I don’t mind bucking Belichick with a superior team against a rookie quarterback (quarterbacks making their first playoff start are just 18-34-1 ATS against teams with a QB that has playoff experience). Buffalo is a 1-Star Best Bet at -4 points or less.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
33.06
33.76
-
Succ Pass Plays
49.8%
44.6%
-
Sack Rate
4.8%
6.3%
-
Int Rate
2.2%
4.3%
-
Deep Pass Rate
16.8%
18.0%
-
Big Pass Yards
41.1%
31.5%
-
NYPP
6.89
5.54
Rush
-
Rush Plays
28.76
27.29
-
RB YPR
4.43
4.41
-
Stuff Rate
24.5%
20.5%
-
Succ Rush Plays
52.1%
48.5%
-
Big Rush Yards
47.7%
44.4%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.40
4.53
Game
-
All Snaps
61.82
61.06
-
Early Down Succ
53.4%
49.9%
-
Succ Rate
50.9%
46.3%
-
Big Yards Rate
43.4%
36.4%
-
Yards Per Play
5.73
5.09
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.0%
0.7%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
29.83
29.24
-
Run Ratio
46.5%
44.7%
-
Starting Field Pos
31.40
26.86
-
Game Control
2.81
-2.81
Pass
-
Pass Plays
40.06
33.71
-
Succ Pass Plays
49.5%
38.9%
-
Sack Rate
4.0%
7.3%
-
Int Rate
2.4%
3.4%
-
Deep Pass Rate
17.6%
14.5%
-
Big Pass Yards
33.4%
30.3%
-
NYPP
6.28
4.87
Rush
-
Rush Plays
27.12
25.94
-
RB YPR
4.01
4.14
-
Stuff Rate
23.9%
29.7%
-
Succ Rush Plays
51.6%
43.8%
-
Big Rush Yards
46.3%
49.7%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.78
4.23
Game
-
All Snaps
67.18
59.65
-
Early Down Succ
52.3%
44.9%
-
Succ Rate
50.4%
41.0%
-
Big Yards Rate
37.7%
37.6%
-
Yards Per Play
5.68
4.59
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.4%
1.0%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.31
28.96
-
Run Ratio
40.4%
43.5%
-
Starting Field Pos
32.04
29.03
-
Game Control
5.49
-5.49
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2021 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
MIA |
16 – 17 L |
-3.18 |
56.4% /
51.7% |
0.0% /
6.9% |
0.0% /
3.7% |
7.21 /
6.38 |
56.7% /
56.5% |
13.3% /
30.4% |
4.17 /
3.22 |
69 /
52 |
52.8% /
58.5% |
56.5% /
53.8% |
36.9% /
43.1% |
5.88 /
4.98 |
2.9% /
0.0% |
43.5% /
44.2% |
27.63 /
25.11 |
| 2 |
@NYJ |
25 – 6 W |
10.53 |
36.4% /
35.1% |
9.1% /
10.8% |
0.0% /
12.1% |
4.82 /
4.97 |
54.2% /
51.6% |
20.8% /
29.0% |
4.21 /
4.90 |
57 /
68 |
50.0% /
45.1% |
43.9% /
42.6% |
48.1% /
50.0% |
4.56 /
4.94 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
42.1% /
45.6% |
40.00 /
24.58 |
| 3 |
NO |
13 – 28 L |
-10.20 |
35.8% /
50.0% |
3.8% /
12.5% |
5.9% /
0.0% |
4.74 /
4.58 |
41.2% /
50.0% |
23.5% /
18.4% |
2.88 /
3.74 |
70 /
62 |
37.0% /
53.2% |
37.1% /
50.0% |
28.8% /
9.3% |
4.29 /
4.06 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
24.3% /
61.3% |
27.92 /
32.92 |
| 4 |
TB |
17 – 19 L |
-0.20 |
54.3% /
40.9% |
8.7% /
2.3% |
2.4% /
0.0% |
6.41 /
5.93 |
25.0% /
53.3% |
75.0% /
23.3% |
-0.13 /
3.97 |
54 /
74 |
59.5% /
46.3% |
50.0% /
45.9% |
22.6% /
42.3% |
5.44 /
5.14 |
1.9% /
0.0% |
14.8% /
40.5% |
29.64 /
25.64 |
| 5 |
@HST |
25 – 22 W |
-5.14 |
54.8% /
46.9% |
3.2% /
9.4% |
3.3% /
0.0% |
7.29 /
9.16 |
56.7% /
20.8% |
30.0% /
12.5% |
4.20 /
2.79 |
61 /
56 |
57.1% /
29.7% |
55.7% /
35.7% |
38.9% /
47.8% |
5.77 /
6.43 |
1.6% /
1.8% |
49.2% /
42.9% |
33.33 /
27.22 |
| 6 |
DAL |
29 – 35 L |
2.00 |
52.2% /
52.9% |
8.7% /
0.0% |
4.8% /
2.0% |
9.35 /
8.73 |
51.9% /
35.5% |
18.5% /
29.0% |
4.44 /
3.94 |
50 /
82 |
57.5% /
50.8% |
52.0% /
46.3% |
56.4% /
39.7% |
6.70 /
6.91 |
2.0% /
1.2% |
54.0% /
37.8% |
30.38 /
29.00 |
| 7 |
NYJ |
54 – 13 W |
19.28 |
54.8% /
52.3% |
2.4% /
4.5% |
0.0% /
4.8% |
9.60 /
5.39 |
50.0% /
52.9% |
31.3% /
17.6% |
4.63 /
3.65 |
74 /
61 |
50.8% /
55.6% |
52.7% /
52.5% |
69.8% /
26.3% |
7.45 /
4.90 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
43.2% /
27.9% |
35.27 /
25.64 |
| 8 |
@LAC |
27 – 24 W |
-0.77 |
44.4% /
39.5% |
2.8% /
7.9% |
0.0% /
5.7% |
5.86 /
5.42 |
59.0% /
40.0% |
23.1% /
15.0% |
3.62 /
8.15 |
75 /
58 |
54.5% /
42.9% |
52.0% /
39.7% |
28.1% /
46.1% |
4.69 /
6.36 |
1.3% /
0.0% |
52.0% /
34.5% |
37.18 /
20.25 |
| 9 |
@CAR |
24 – 6 W |
7.64 |
35.0% /
32.4% |
10.0% /
2.9% |
5.6% /
9.1% |
6.10 /
4.76 |
46.2% /
39.1% |
23.1% /
17.4% |
3.87 /
3.39 |
59 /
57 |
41.9% /
38.6% |
42.4% /
35.1% |
49.7% /
29.6% |
4.63 /
4.21 |
1.7% /
0.0% |
66.1% /
40.4% |
35.10 /
30.82 |
| 10 |
CLV |
45 – 7 W |
14.20 |
64.3% /
39.5% |
7.1% /
13.2% |
0.0% /
3.0% |
9.57 /
3.11 |
52.9% /
45.0% |
26.5% /
20.0% |
5.41 /
4.95 |
62 /
58 |
55.8% /
51.2% |
58.1% /
41.4% |
56.7% /
20.9% |
7.29 /
3.74 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
54.8% /
34.5% |
28.78 /
22.11 |
| 11 |
@ATL |
25 – 0 W |
9.70 |
51.7% /
41.7% |
10.3% /
11.1% |
3.8% /
12.5% |
6.00 /
3.47 |
50.0% /
31.3% |
33.3% /
43.8% |
4.47 /
2.50 |
59 /
52 |
57.8% /
45.9% |
50.8% /
38.5% |
25.5% /
11.1% |
5.22 /
3.17 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
50.8% /
30.8% |
33.00 /
21.45 |
| 12 |
TEN |
36 – 13 W |
7.84 |
55.9% /
34.8% |
5.9% /
8.7% |
0.0% /
4.8% |
8.50 /
3.70 |
41.7% /
59.0% |
20.8% /
7.7% |
4.38 /
6.92 |
58 /
62 |
53.2% /
53.2% |
50.0% /
50.0% |
49.4% /
52.1% |
6.79 /
5.73 |
0.0% /
4.8% |
41.4% /
62.9% |
40.91 /
23.82 |
| 13 |
@BUF |
14 – 10 W |
2.88 |
33.3% /
43.8% |
0.0% /
6.3% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.33 /
4.09 |
30.4% /
44.0% |
37.0% /
16.0% |
4.83 /
3.96 |
49 /
57 |
34.3% /
51.2% |
30.6% /
43.9% |
66.4% /
26.2% |
4.92 /
4.04 |
2.0% /
1.8% |
93.9% /
43.9% |
22.90 /
39.60 |
| 15 |
@IND |
17 – 27 L |
-11.85 |
47.8% /
30.8% |
2.2% /
7.7% |
4.4% /
8.3% |
6.17 /
3.77 |
47.4% /
59.0% |
26.3% /
20.5% |
4.26 /
5.79 |
65 /
52 |
51.1% /
56.4% |
47.7% /
51.9% |
34.5% /
56.9% |
5.62 /
5.29 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
29.2% /
75.0% |
27.10 /
34.70 |
| 16 |
BUF |
21 – 33 L |
-6.31 |
33.3% /
57.4% |
3.0% /
0.0% |
3.1% /
0.0% |
4.21 /
6.68 |
59.3% /
53.6% |
18.5% /
25.0% |
5.52 /
4.07 |
60 /
75 |
47.7% /
55.9% |
45.0% /
56.0% |
37.8% /
20.3% |
4.80 /
5.71 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
45.0% /
37.3% |
20.25 /
32.33 |
| 17 |
JAX |
50 – 10 W |
21.66 |
73.5% /
41.4% |
0.0% /
6.9% |
0.0% /
11.1% |
8.53 /
5.97 |
75.0% /
58.8% |
8.3% /
11.8% |
5.03 /
4.71 |
70 /
46 |
73.3% /
54.3% |
74.3% /
47.8% |
26.3% /
47.3% |
6.73 /
5.50 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
51.4% /
37.0% |
39.60 /
21.40 |
| 18 |
@MIA |
24 – 33 L |
-10.33 |
50.0% /
52.2% |
6.3% /
4.3% |
3.3% /
0.0% |
7.66 /
4.48 |
70.4% /
53.5% |
18.5% /
18.6% |
4.96 /
4.53 |
59 /
66 |
62.5% /
56.0% |
59.3% /
53.0% |
51.4% /
27.0% |
6.42 /
4.52 |
3.4% /
0.0% |
45.8% /
65.2% |
24.80 /
20.11 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2021 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
PIT |
16 – 23 L |
2.06 |
44.4% /
44.1% |
5.6% /
5.9% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
4.70 /
5.21 |
48.0% /
33.3% |
16.0% /
42.9% |
4.68 /
3.57 |
79 /
55 |
47.4% /
42.9% |
45.6% /
40.0% |
22.7% /
43.0% |
4.70 /
4.58 |
1.3% /
0.0% |
31.6% /
38.2% |
32.64 /
29.45 |
| 2 |
@MIA |
35 – 0 W |
18.46 |
38.2% /
36.0% |
2.9% /
12.0% |
3.0% /
2.3% |
5.03 /
2.90 |
43.3% /
25.0% |
26.7% /
35.0% |
4.77 /
3.55 |
64 /
70 |
36.0% /
33.3% |
40.6% /
32.9% |
52.5% /
11.9% |
4.91 /
3.09 |
1.6% /
2.9% |
46.9% /
28.6% |
31.77 /
33.58 |
| 3 |
WAS |
43 – 21 W |
13.76 |
63.6% /
42.3% |
0.0% /
3.8% |
0.0% /
8.0% |
8.16 /
9.00 |
51.5% /
41.7% |
24.2% /
29.2% |
3.70 /
3.21 |
77 /
50 |
59.0% /
47.2% |
58.4% /
42.0% |
28.3% /
46.0% |
6.25 /
6.22 |
0.0% /
2.0% |
42.9% /
48.0% |
40.75 /
27.00 |
| 4 |
HST |
40 – 0 W |
15.47 |
61.3% /
29.2% |
3.2% /
12.5% |
3.3% /
19.0% |
8.10 /
2.54 |
62.5% /
27.8% |
17.5% /
22.2% |
4.98 /
2.67 |
71 /
42 |
67.9% /
33.3% |
62.0% /
28.6% |
45.3% /
16.3% |
6.34 /
2.60 |
0.0% /
2.4% |
56.3% /
42.9% |
39.17 /
30.92 |
| 5 |
@KC |
38 – 20 W |
8.36 |
46.2% /
50.0% |
0.0% /
3.6% |
0.0% /
3.7% |
12.12 /
4.86 |
50.0% /
56.5% |
35.7% /
21.7% |
4.32 /
5.22 |
54 /
79 |
48.8% /
56.3% |
48.1% /
51.9% |
64.7% /
18.9% |
8.07 /
4.96 |
0.0% /
1.3% |
51.9% /
29.1% |
28.50 /
26.40 |
| 6 |
@TEN |
31 – 34 L |
2.27 |
54.0% /
44.8% |
6.0% /
0.0% |
2.1% /
3.4% |
6.70 /
7.45 |
43.5% /
45.5% |
21.7% /
31.8% |
3.57 /
6.64 |
73 /
51 |
52.6% /
45.0% |
50.7% /
45.1% |
26.4% /
54.7% |
5.71 /
7.10 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
31.5% /
43.1% |
25.80 /
28.55 |
| 8 |
MIA |
26 – 11 W |
3.32 |
46.5% /
39.0% |
0.0% /
4.9% |
0.0% /
2.6% |
5.79 /
4.73 |
34.8% /
43.5% |
39.1% /
26.1% |
4.43 /
2.96 |
66 /
64 |
42.3% /
44.7% |
42.4% /
40.6% |
28.2% /
35.5% |
5.32 /
4.09 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
34.8% /
35.9% |
30.00 /
28.27 |
| 9 |
@JAX |
6 – 9 L |
-0.59 |
43.1% /
33.3% |
7.8% /
6.7% |
4.3% /
0.0% |
4.49 /
4.63 |
35.7% /
33.3% |
21.4% /
37.0% |
5.14 /
2.93 |
65 /
57 |
45.7% /
36.6% |
41.5% /
33.3% |
29.5% /
33.5% |
4.63 /
3.82 |
1.5% /
1.8% |
21.5% /
47.4% |
27.67 /
32.90 |
| 10 |
@NYJ |
45 – 17 W |
18.89 |
66.7% /
41.7% |
6.7% /
2.1% |
3.6% /
8.5% |
11.67 /
6.17 |
66.7% /
50.0% |
25.0% /
40.9% |
5.79 /
3.18 |
54 /
70 |
69.6% /
48.1% |
66.7% /
44.3% |
60.6% /
33.4% |
9.06 /
5.23 |
1.9% /
1.4% |
44.4% /
31.4% |
33.69 /
25.58 |
| 11 |
IND |
15 – 41 L |
-15.20 |
51.2% /
45.0% |
2.4% /
0.0% |
7.5% /
0.0% |
5.27 /
5.30 |
69.2% /
65.2% |
7.7% /
19.6% |
7.00 /
5.74 |
54 /
66 |
58.1% /
58.5% |
55.6% /
59.1% |
27.9% /
43.0% |
5.69 /
5.61 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
24.1% /
69.7% |
22.56 /
46.56 |
| 12 |
@NO |
31 – 6 W |
12.57 |
70.0% /
40.6% |
6.7% /
6.3% |
7.1% /
3.3% |
8.27 /
4.56 |
50.0% /
16.0% |
21.9% /
44.0% |
3.53 /
1.76 |
62 /
57 |
58.3% /
28.2% |
59.7% /
29.8% |
42.4% /
16.9% |
5.82 /
3.33 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
51.6% /
43.9% |
38.50 /
21.45 |
| 13 |
NE |
10 – 14 L |
-2.88 |
43.8% /
33.3% |
6.3% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
4.09 /
6.33 |
44.0% /
30.4% |
16.0% /
37.0% |
3.96 /
4.83 |
57 /
49 |
51.2% /
34.3% |
43.9% /
30.6% |
26.2% /
66.4% |
4.04 /
4.92 |
1.8% /
2.0% |
43.9% /
93.9% |
39.60 /
22.90 |
| 14 |
@TB |
27 – 33 L |
-10.94 |
42.1% /
47.9% |
5.3% /
4.2% |
1.9% /
0.0% |
5.14 /
7.31 |
73.7% /
55.2% |
15.8% /
24.1% |
9.11 /
4.72 |
76 /
77 |
59.6% /
52.5% |
50.0% /
50.6% |
49.7% /
45.0% |
6.13 /
6.34 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
25.0% /
37.7% |
25.54 /
23.71 |
| 15 |
CAR |
31 – 14 W |
8.64 |
44.7% /
31.0% |
10.5% /
9.5% |
2.9% /
2.6% |
5.08 /
2.95 |
40.7% /
44.8% |
33.3% /
20.7% |
4.41 /
5.21 |
65 /
71 |
42.9% /
40.4% |
43.1% /
36.6% |
31.0% /
31.9% |
4.80 /
3.87 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
41.5% /
40.8% |
33.42 /
31.82 |
| 16 |
@NE |
33 – 21 W |
6.31 |
57.4% /
33.3% |
0.0% /
3.0% |
0.0% /
3.1% |
6.68 /
4.21 |
53.6% /
59.3% |
25.0% /
18.5% |
4.07 /
5.52 |
75 /
60 |
55.9% /
47.7% |
56.0% /
45.0% |
20.3% /
37.8% |
5.71 /
4.80 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
37.3% /
45.0% |
32.33 /
20.25 |
| 17 |
ATL |
29 – 15 W |
5.92 |
37.0% /
39.3% |
3.7% /
17.9% |
11.5% /
0.0% |
4.37 /
6.04 |
63.6% /
68.2% |
13.6% /
22.7% |
5.30 /
4.36 |
71 /
50 |
52.6% /
65.8% |
53.5% /
52.0% |
29.7% /
41.6% |
4.94 /
5.30 |
0.0% /
2.0% |
62.0% /
44.0% |
32.63 /
32.89 |
| 18 |
NYJ |
27 – 10 W |
6.91 |
39.1% /
13.8% |
0.0% /
31.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
5.52 /
0.17 |
42.4% /
29.4% |
39.4% /
41.2% |
5.03 /
2.82 |
79 /
46 |
40.0% /
25.9% |
40.5% /
19.6% |
39.0% /
51.9% |
5.32 /
1.15 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
41.8% /
37.0% |
30.07 /
31.23 |
New England Patriots
@ 
Buffalo Bills