Game Analysis
Lean – BUFFALO (+14) over New England
Following Sunday night’s rematch of the Minnesota Miracle, we’re treated to a terrible matchup on Monday night with the 2nd-best team in our ratings set to face the worst-ranked team in Buffalo. The Bills offense was predictably awful last week with the new arrival Derek Anderson at the helm managing just 3 points. Anderson should improve as he gains familiarity with the playbook, but he still projects as the worst starting quarterback in the league. To make matters worse, Buffalo’s defense will take a hit if edge rusher Trent Murphy is unable to suit up. Murphy is currently ranked 27th in pass rush efficiency and is worth about a half point.
Rob Gronkowski will be the focus for the Patriots as he heals from ankle and back injuries. Gronkowski is averaging more than 0.2 points per target above New England’s other receivers in the last 5 seasons and we make him one of the few non-quarterbacks in the league valued higher than 1 point. The Patriots scored 38 points without Gronkowski last week, but that’s a little deceptive as they benefitted from two special teams touchdowns. Tom Brady may be short on options if Gronkowski is unable to suit up as Josh Gordon is likely to be eliminated by Bills’ CB Tre’Davious White, whose 0.56 yards allowed per cover snap ranks 4th.
New England lost as an 11-point favorite in a Monday Night Football road game last season to division rival Miami, but our model favors the Patriots by 15 points and they should take care of business even if Gronk is unable to play (the model has Pats by 13.8 points without Gronkowski). However, Buffalo applies to a 95-45-3 ATS situation that plays on big home dogs that are under .500 both straight up and against the spread and coming off a loss of 14 points or more. Also, underdogs that lost to the spread by 25 points or more the previous week, as the Bills did in their 5-37 loss to the Colts, are 107-64-5 ATS against teams that have a winning spread record. I’ll lean with Buffalo based on the situation and playing against New England as a big favorite is okay (the Pats are 108-74-5 ATS in all games since 2008 but just 23-28 ATS laying 9 points or more).
Pass
-
Pass Plays
35.6
38.7
-
Succ Pass Plays
54.6%
50.3%
-
Sack Rate
3.6%
3.5%
-
Int Rate
3.0%
3.8%
-
Deep Pass Rate
18.7%
21.9%
-
Big Pass Yards
29.5%
33.3%
-
NYPP
7.3
7.0
Rush
-
Rush Plays
29.9
24.9
-
RB YPR
4.1
4.0
-
Stuff Rate
17.0%
19.5%
-
Succ Rush Plays
48.4%
44.1%
-
Big Rush Yards
44.4%
45.3%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.1
4.5
Game
-
All Snaps
65.4
63.6
-
Early Down Succ
54.0%
45.4%
-
Succ Rate
52.0%
47.8%
-
Big Yards Rate
34.6%
38.1%
-
Yards Per Play
5.8
6.1
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.3%
1.0%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
27.6
28.5
-
Run Ratio
45.0%
38.9%
-
Starting Field Pos
29.4
31.6
-
Game Control
4.4
-4.4
Pass
-
Pass Plays
31.0
34.6
-
Succ Pass Plays
36.7%
52.6%
-
Sack Rate
11.4%
8.2%
-
Int Rate
6.4%
2.7%
-
Deep Pass Rate
23.4%
13.2%
-
Big Pass Yards
40.2%
30.2%
-
NYPP
4.6
6.4
Rush
-
Rush Plays
27.1
27.1
-
RB YPR
3.8
3.9
-
Stuff Rate
26.8%
30.9%
-
Succ Rush Plays
42.9%
40.9%
-
Big Rush Yards
35.4%
55.3%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.0
3.8
Game
-
All Snaps
58.1
61.7
-
Early Down Succ
39.4%
48.1%
-
Succ Rate
38.0%
47.8%
-
Big Yards Rate
39.6%
36.7%
-
Yards Per Play
4.0
5.2
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.0%
1.8%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
30.6
30.2
-
Run Ratio
46.8%
45.0%
-
Starting Field Pos
30.1
32.3
-
Game Control
-7.0
7.0
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
HOU |
27 – 20 W |
10.6 |
48.8% / 29.7% |
4.9% / 8.1% |
2.6% / 2.9% |
6.5 / 4.3 |
38.7% / 45.7% |
9.7% / 25.7% |
3.9 / 4.8 |
72 / 72 |
47.4% / 43.1% |
44.4% / 37.5% |
38.0% / 37.4% |
5.4 / 4.5 |
2.8% / 1.4% |
43.1% / 48.6% |
25.4 / 35.4 |
2 |
@JAC |
20 – 31 L |
-13.1 |
48.6% / 57.8% |
5.4% / 0.0% |
0.0% / 2.2% |
5.9 / 8.4 |
36.0% / 36.0% |
12.0% / 16.0% |
3.3 / 4.2 |
62 / 70 |
47.9% / 46.3% |
43.5% / 50.0% |
38.3% / 42.7% |
4.9 / 6.9 |
1.6% / 1.4% |
40.3% / 35.7% |
30.1 / 25.7 |
3 |
@DET |
10 – 26 L |
-8.1 |
42.9% / 61.1% |
7.1% / 2.8% |
3.8% / 2.9% |
4.3 / 7.1 |
57.9% / 45.5% |
21.1% / 21.2% |
4.7 / 4.8 |
47 / 69 |
56.8% / 54.5% |
48.9% / 53.6% |
19.1% / 36.7% |
4.4 / 6.0 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
40.4% / 47.8% |
26.4 / 30.2 |
4 |
MIA |
38 – 7 W |
19.6 |
42.9% / 33.3% |
0.0% / 7.4% |
5.7% / 4.0% |
7.8 / 4.3 |
34.9% / 11.1% |
18.6% / 38.9% |
4.1 / 3.1 |
78 / 45 |
34.5% / 21.2% |
38.5% / 24.4% |
45.1% / 20.9% |
5.8 / 3.8 |
0.0% / 2.2% |
55.1% / 40.0% |
32.0 / 29.5 |
5 |
IND |
38 – 24 W |
12.6 |
88.2% / 76.9% |
0.0% / 2.6% |
5.9% / 5.3% |
10.0 / 9.1 |
44.0% / 47.6% |
20.0% / 4.8% |
4.0 / 4.0 |
59 / 60 |
65.5% / 49.2% |
69.5% / 66.7% |
26.8% / 28.7% |
7.5 / 7.3 |
0.0% / 1.7% |
42.4% / 35.0% |
35.5 / 27.9 |
6 |
KC |
43 – 40 W |
5.3 |
48.6% / 50.0% |
5.4% / 0.0% |
0.0% / 5.6% |
8.8 / 9.8 |
64.1% / 70.6% |
15.4% / 17.6% |
4.5 / 5.5 |
76 / 53 |
60.0% / 59.5% |
56.6% / 56.6% |
44.9% / 55.4% |
6.6 / 8.4 |
1.3% / 0.0% |
51.3% / 32.1% |
30.6 / 39.9 |
7 |
@CHI |
38 – 31 W |
3.8 |
62.2% / 43.1% |
2.7% / 3.9% |
2.8% / 4.1% |
7.4 / 6.3 |
63.0% / 52.0% |
22.2% / 12.0% |
4.0 / 5.4 |
64 / 76 |
66.0% / 44.1% |
62.5% / 46.1% |
29.7% / 44.6% |
6.0 / 6.0 |
3.1% / 0.0% |
42.2% / 32.9% |
25.6 / 32.9 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
@BAL |
3 – 47 L |
-25.9 |
20.5% / 42.5% |
15.4% / 5.0% |
6.1% / 0.0% |
1.8 / 6.3 |
22.7% / 44.1% |
31.8% / 29.4% |
3.8 / 3.4 |
61 / 74 |
24.4% / 43.3% |
21.3% / 43.2% |
39.9% / 43.1% |
2.5 / 5.0 |
0.0% / 1.4% |
36.1% / 45.9% |
30.5 / 41.3 |
2 |
LAC |
20 – 31 L |
-14.5 |
36.8% / 65.5% |
13.2% / 6.9% |
6.1% / 0.0% |
5.5 / 8.3 |
54.5% / 33.3% |
31.8% / 40.7% |
3.8 / 4.1 |
60 / 56 |
45.7% / 55.6% |
43.3% / 50.0% |
59.0% / 44.0% |
4.9 / 6.3 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
36.7% / 48.2% |
26.7 / 36.5 |
3 |
@MIN |
27 – 6 W |
22.0 |
40.0% / 47.5% |
12.0% / 6.8% |
0.0% / 1.8% |
6.6 / 4.7 |
42.1% / 16.7% |
23.7% / 50.0% |
3.4 / 2.3 |
63 / 65 |
42.9% / 48.0% |
41.3% / 44.6% |
42.1% / 3.8% |
4.6 / 4.5 |
0.0% / 3.1% |
60.3% / 9.2% |
40.2 / 17.7 |
4 |
@GB |
0 – 22 L |
-12.8 |
27.5% / 47.6% |
17.5% / 4.8% |
6.1% / 2.5% |
2.2 / 6.7 |
43.8% / 56.3% |
25.0% / 37.5% |
3.6 / 4.4 |
56 / 74 |
37.5% / 50.0% |
32.1% / 51.4% |
31.0% / 49.6% |
2.6 / 5.7 |
1.8% / 1.4% |
28.6% / 43.2% |
27.3 / 27.4 |
5 |
TEN |
13 – 12 W |
2.6 |
63.6% / 81.3% |
9.1% / 12.5% |
10.0% / 7.1% |
7.2 / 7.6 |
46.5% / 56.0% |
20.9% / 16.0% |
3.3 / 4.0 |
54 / 41 |
43.8% / 51.2% |
50.0% / 65.9% |
18.8% / 29.0% |
4.1 / 5.4 |
0.0% / 4.9% |
79.6% / 61.0% |
34.8 / 30.2 |
6 |
@HOU |
13 – 20 L |
-4.3 |
29.0% / 27.3% |
6.5% / 21.2% |
6.9% / 7.7% |
4.2 / 4.3 |
40.7% / 36.0% |
22.2% / 28.0% |
3.7 / 3.0 |
58 / 58 |
32.6% / 34.9% |
34.5% / 31.0% |
46.3% / 34.1% |
3.9 / 3.7 |
1.7% / 1.7% |
46.6% / 43.1% |
28.2 / 36.5 |
7 |
@IND |
5 – 37 L |
-16.0 |
39.4% / 56.5% |
6.1% / 0.0% |
9.7% / 0.0% |
5.1 / 6.8 |
50.0% / 43.9% |
31.8% / 14.6% |
6.1 / 5.5 |
55 / 64 |
48.9% / 53.5% |
43.6% / 48.4% |
39.9% / 53.2% |
5.5 / 5.9 |
3.6% / 0.0% |
40.0% / 64.1% |
22.8 / 36.3 |