Game Analysis
Lean – BUFFALO (+8.5) vs New England
Lean – Under (48)
The Patriots have the league’s top passing offense in my metrics and they will face a Bills pass defense ranked 25th. Buffalo is surrendering 8.2 yards per target to opposing tight ends (5th-worst) and I expect another good game from Rob Gronkowski. However, as I’ve mentioned before, Tom Brady is relatively better against good pass defenses than he is against bad pass defenses since his accuracy is not needed as much against such teams.
The Bills are allowing 4.8 yards per rush since trading defensive lineman Marcell Dareus and I expect the Patriots to continue their success in the ground game after running for 196 yards last week.
New England’s secondary have overcome their early-season futility and allowed just 4.3 yards per pass play in the last 2 games. However, Buffalo has the second-lowest pass rate in the league after factoring out garbage time and the Patriots rank 31st against the run in my metrics and I expect Buffalo to exploit their favorable matchup on the ground as long as they can keep the game within reach.
The line on this game is pretty fair but I like the Bills based on a number of strong situations. Buffalo applies to a 131-63-6 ATS late-season home off 2 road games situation while New England applies to a 4-36-1 ATS subset of a 34-100-2 ATS road letdown situation that is based on their recent dominating performances. The model also points towards the under in this game, so I’ll lean Under.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
39.8
39.6
-
Succ Pass Plays
50.7%
51.1%
-
Sack Rate
6.1%
6.0%
-
Int Rate
0.8%
2.6%
-
Deep Pass Rate
21.0%
21.8%
-
Big Pass Yards
43.8%
37.7%
-
NYPP
7.5
7.0
Rush
-
Rush Plays
28.8
24.4
-
RB YPR
4.0
4.6
-
Stuff Rate
20.0%
18.0%
-
Succ Rush Plays
53.0%
52.4%
-
Big Rush Yards
27.7%
40.0%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.0
4.8
Game
-
All Snaps
68.6
64.0
-
Early Down Succ
54.9%
55.5%
-
Succ Rate
51.7%
51.4%
-
Big Yards Rate
39.8%
39.2%
-
Yards Per Play
6.0
6.1
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.6%
1.4%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
24.7
25.0
-
Run Ratio
41.7%
38.3%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.9
24.6
-
Game Control
7.2
-7.2
Pass
-
Pass Plays
33.0
37.8
-
Succ Pass Plays
44.0%
46.7%
-
Sack Rate
8.3%
4.1%
-
Int Rate
2.1%
2.7%
-
Deep Pass Rate
19.6%
15.7%
-
Big Pass Yards
37.0%
34.5%
-
NYPP
5.6
6.4
Rush
-
Rush Plays
30.7
29.1
-
RB YPR
3.5
3.5
-
Stuff Rate
31.1%
25.7%
-
Succ Rush Plays
37.8%
37.8%
-
Big Rush Yards
46.3%
52.2%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.9
3.7
Game
-
All Snaps
63.7
66.9
-
Early Down Succ
43.2%
46.6%
-
Succ Rate
40.8%
43.5%
-
Big Yards Rate
40.6%
41.0%
-
Yards Per Play
4.7
5.3
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.7%
0.9%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
26.3
28.6
-
Run Ratio
47.6%
42.8%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.7
29.9
-
Game Control
-3.2
3.2
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
KC |
27 – 42 L |
1.8 |
33.3% /
60.5% |
7.7% /
7.9% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.3 /
9.3 |
50.0% /
42.4% |
25.0% /
9.1% |
3.5 /
5.7 |
75 /
71 |
46.4% /
63.5% |
41.3% /
52.1% |
54.8% /
53.7% |
5.0 /
7.6 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
48.0% /
46.5% |
27.8 /
25.5 |
| 2 |
@NO |
36 – 20 W |
14.2 |
61.0% /
51.1% |
4.9% /
2.2% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
10.6 /
7.7 |
51.6% /
47.1% |
22.6% /
11.8% |
3.8 /
4.8 |
72 /
62 |
58.3% /
54.2% |
56.9% /
50.0% |
53.2% /
48.3% |
7.7 /
6.9 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
43.1% /
27.4% |
27.5 /
27.9 |
| 3 |
HOU |
36 – 33 W |
1.2 |
47.5% /
48.6% |
12.5% /
5.7% |
0.0% /
6.1% |
8.4 /
8.3 |
45.0% /
56.3% |
30.0% /
15.6% |
3.0 /
3.9 |
60 /
67 |
46.8% /
54.7% |
46.7% /
52.2% |
52.3% /
38.8% |
6.6 /
6.2 |
1.7% /
0.0% |
33.3% /
47.8% |
28.8 /
24.0 |
| 4 |
CAR |
30 – 33 L |
-1.9 |
60.4% /
61.3% |
6.3% /
6.5% |
0.0% /
3.4% |
6.1 /
9.8 |
73.7% /
51.7% |
21.1% /
20.7% |
4.2 /
4.8 |
67 /
60 |
66.7% /
54.9% |
64.2% /
56.7% |
22.0% /
48.0% |
5.6 /
7.4 |
0.0% /
1.7% |
28.4% /
48.3% |
26.1 /
26.7 |
| 5 |
@TB |
19 – 14 W |
4.4 |
51.2% /
48.9% |
7.0% /
4.3% |
2.5% /
0.0% |
6.7 /
6.8 |
47.8% /
55.0% |
17.4% /
20.0% |
4.9 /
4.5 |
66 /
67 |
53.7% /
55.6% |
50.0% /
50.7% |
24.6% /
37.2% |
6.1 /
6.1 |
1.5% /
0.0% |
34.8% /
29.9% |
27.7 /
27.4 |
| 6 |
@NYJ |
24 – 17 W |
-0.1 |
39.5% /
54.0% |
0.0% /
8.0% |
2.6% /
4.3% |
6.8 /
6.7 |
61.5% /
40.0% |
7.7% /
24.0% |
4.6 /
3.0 |
64 /
75 |
49.0% /
50.9% |
48.4% /
49.3% |
29.5% /
46.0% |
5.9 /
5.5 |
1.6% /
1.3% |
40.6% /
33.3% |
28.7 /
24.0 |
| 7 |
ATL |
23 – 7 W |
11.4 |
48.4% /
58.8% |
6.5% /
2.9% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
7.8 /
6.6 |
56.4% /
54.5% |
12.8% /
18.2% |
4.2 /
5.5 |
70 /
56 |
57.7% /
65.9% |
52.9% /
57.1% |
38.4% /
26.8% |
5.8 /
6.1 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
55.7% /
39.3% |
28.8 /
21.9 |
| 8 |
LAC |
21 – 13 W |
4.4 |
50.0% /
46.7% |
6.0% /
3.3% |
0.0% /
3.4% |
6.3 /
6.4 |
43.8% /
66.7% |
28.1% /
19.0% |
3.0 /
7.5 |
82 /
51 |
46.8% /
60.0% |
47.6% /
54.9% |
21.3% /
38.7% |
5.0 /
6.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
39.0% /
41.2% |
30.5 /
20.5 |
| 10 |
@DEN |
41 – 16 W |
14.7 |
65.8% /
39.4% |
2.6% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
3.0% |
7.8 /
6.7 |
55.2% /
44.8% |
13.8% /
13.8% |
3.4 /
4.1 |
67 /
62 |
67.9% /
40.0% |
61.2% /
41.9% |
32.1% /
46.2% |
5.9 /
5.5 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
43.3% /
46.8% |
37.9 /
23.7 |
| 11 |
@OAK |
33 – 8 W |
15.9 |
56.1% /
45.3% |
9.8% /
7.5% |
0.0% /
2.0% |
8.1 /
4.4 |
55.0% /
76.2% |
25.0% /
14.3% |
4.5 /
5.2 |
61 /
74 |
60.4% /
59.6% |
55.7% /
54.1% |
40.2% /
24.4% |
6.9 /
4.6 |
0.0% /
8.1% |
32.8% /
28.4% |
23.1 /
23.0 |
| 12 |
MIA |
35 – 17 W |
13.1 |
44.8% /
47.5% |
3.4% /
17.5% |
3.6% /
6.1% |
7.6 /
3.9 |
42.9% /
42.1% |
16.7% /
31.6% |
4.8 /
3.5 |
71 /
59 |
50.0% /
51.1% |
43.7% /
45.8% |
69.4% /
23.5% |
5.9 /
3.7 |
1.4% /
1.7% |
59.2% /
32.2% |
31.6 /
25.9 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
NYJ |
21 – 12 W |
3.8 |
43.3% /
37.5% |
6.7% /
2.5% |
3.6% /
5.1% |
7.3 /
4.4 |
33.3% /
25.0% |
24.4% /
31.3% |
4.3 /
2.4 |
75 /
56 |
37.7% /
35.9% |
37.3% /
33.9% |
68.1% /
26.5% |
5.5 /
3.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
60.0% /
28.6% |
25.3 /
29.7 |
| 2 |
@CAR |
3 – 9 L |
-4.0 |
35.7% /
50.0% |
10.7% /
15.8% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
3.8 /
4.7 |
21.7% /
34.5% |
39.1% /
37.9% |
3.0 /
2.7 |
51 /
67 |
30.6% /
44.9% |
29.4% /
43.3% |
20.5% /
39.1% |
3.5 /
3.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
45.1% /
43.3% |
21.1 /
31.3 |
| 3 |
DEN |
26 – 16 W |
1.6 |
50.0% /
37.2% |
13.3% /
7.0% |
0.0% /
5.0% |
6.6 /
5.9 |
27.0% /
39.1% |
27.0% /
26.1% |
2.1 /
4.8 |
67 /
66 |
42.2% /
38.0% |
37.3% /
37.9% |
44.4% /
59.3% |
4.1 /
5.5 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
55.2% /
34.8% |
39.8 /
23.7 |
| 4 |
@ATL |
23 – 17 W |
2.0 |
43.5% /
48.8% |
13.0% /
2.3% |
0.0% /
4.8% |
7.1 /
5.6 |
44.7% /
58.6% |
23.7% /
27.6% |
3.1 /
5.1 |
61 /
72 |
47.7% /
56.1% |
44.3% /
52.8% |
27.6% /
30.9% |
4.6 /
5.4 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
62.3% /
40.3% |
21.9 /
25.9 |
| 5 |
@CIN |
16 – 20 L |
-3.1 |
32.6% /
43.2% |
14.0% /
2.7% |
2.7% /
5.6% |
3.2 /
8.7 |
45.8% /
22.6% |
20.8% /
22.6% |
3.4 /
2.2 |
67 /
68 |
38.8% /
37.0% |
37.3% /
33.8% |
22.2% /
47.7% |
3.3 /
5.8 |
0.0% /
1.5% |
35.8% /
45.6% |
34.8 /
25.6 |
| 7 |
TB |
30 – 27 W |
2.0 |
44.1% /
64.4% |
2.9% /
2.2% |
0.0% /
2.3% |
7.7 /
8.4 |
42.4% /
32.0% |
27.3% /
20.0% |
5.2 /
2.8 |
67 /
70 |
37.3% /
52.5% |
43.3% /
52.9% |
65.0% /
26.4% |
6.5 /
6.4 |
1.5% /
2.9% |
49.3% /
35.7% |
33.7 /
27.0 |
| 8 |
OAK |
34 – 14 W |
5.5 |
55.6% /
49.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
4.1% |
6.1 /
6.4 |
45.0% /
42.9% |
17.5% /
14.3% |
4.2 /
3.9 |
67 /
63 |
55.3% /
51.0% |
49.3% /
47.6% |
48.6% /
28.9% |
5.0 /
5.8 |
0.0% /
3.2% |
59.7% /
22.2% |
35.7 /
22.4 |
| 9 |
@NYJ |
21 – 34 L |
-9.6 |
48.9% /
42.9% |
14.9% /
4.8% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
5.2 /
6.5 |
27.3% /
38.6% |
40.9% /
29.5% |
2.9 /
4.5 |
69 /
65 |
42.3% /
43.5% |
42.0% /
40.0% |
31.6% /
55.4% |
4.4 /
5.1 |
4.3% /
0.0% |
31.9% /
67.7% |
25.2 /
38.0 |
| 10 |
NO |
10 – 47 L |
-17.6 |
40.0% /
44.0% |
6.7% /
0.0% |
3.6% /
0.0% |
4.3 /
7.4 |
40.0% /
62.7% |
46.7% /
11.8% |
4.6 /
5.9 |
45 /
76 |
48.5% /
62.5% |
40.0% /
56.6% |
35.4% /
56.4% |
4.4 /
6.4 |
0.0% /
1.3% |
33.3% /
67.1% |
21.9 /
39.7 |
| 11 |
@LAC |
24 – 54 L |
-21.2 |
45.0% /
56.8% |
2.5% /
2.7% |
12.8% /
0.0% |
5.5 /
7.6 |
50.0% /
34.2% |
36.4% /
31.6% |
7.9 /
3.9 |
62 /
75 |
47.8% /
48.2% |
46.8% /
45.3% |
49.1% /
41.2% |
6.3 /
5.8 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
35.5% /
50.7% |
21.7 /
44.0 |
| 12 |
@KC |
16 – 10 W |
5.9 |
45.2% /
39.5% |
6.5% /
5.3% |
0.0% /
2.8% |
5.3 /
4.8 |
38.5% /
25.0% |
38.5% /
30.0% |
2.7 /
2.8 |
70 /
58 |
46.9% /
42.9% |
41.4% /
34.5% |
34.1% /
39.2% |
3.9 /
4.1 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
55.7% /
34.5% |
34.8 /
21.8 |
New England Patriots
@ 
Buffalo Bills