Game Analysis

Note: The line has moved up to Baltimore -3.5 and the Ravens are not a play at that number.

Strong Opinion – BALTIMORE (-2.5) over New England

• The betting market has started to price Baltimore’s offense to reflect Lamar Jackson’s health, rating them 8th rather than among the top-3 in the league. The Ravens are averaging 5.7 yppl (8th), so their current market rating is justified.
• The Patriots have been missing two starters in the trenches. Interior defender Milton Williams is sidelined, and he ranks 4th in pass-rushing efficiency. LT Will Campbell is out, and he is allowing a 5.9% pressure rate – compared to backup Vederian Lowe surrendering an 8.5% pressure rate.
• The loss of Williams and Campbell didn’t show in the first two games, as both were sidelined against inferior opponents – the pre-Joe Burrow Bengals and Giants. However, Buffalo’s offense averaged 0.35 more EPA/dropback compared to New England last week.
• The Ravens are also the caliber of team to make the Patriots pay for missing the two starters in the trenches.
• New England TE Hunter Henry has a 61% success rate (5th), but he will be contained as Baltimore’s defense is allowing 0.04 EPA/target to opposing tight ends (3rd).
• We think the side price was fair at -2.5 but New England applies to a 17-76-3 ATS late-season angle that was 0-4 for applying teams last week. The predicted total is 46.9 points.

Baltimore is a Strong Opinion at -3 -110 odds or better.