Game Analysis
Lean – SEATTLE (-3) over Minnesota
The playoff picture will become much clearer after Monday night as a Seahawks win would give them a lead in the Wild Card standings and the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Vikings for the right to play the NFC East Champion in the first round. It’s going to be difficult for Minnesota to move the ball with their weak offensive line in a hostile environment. The Vikings rank 27th in pass blocking efficiency and Rashod Hill and Riley Reiff are likely to get burned on the outside by Seattle’s effective pass-rusher Frank Clark. The run blocking has been even worse as Minnesota’s ground game ranks last despite Dalvin Cook leading the league in forced missed tackles per touch. Seattle is a good tackling team, so Cook’s yards after contract may not be as good as usual tonight.
Vikings’ WR Adam Thielen gained just 28 yards from 10 targets last week as Bill Belichick shut him down with double teams and the superb slot receiver will have another difficult test against Seahawks nickelback Justin Coleman on Monday. Coleman is surrendering just 0.88 yards per cover snap in the slot (6th) and should frustrate Thielen. Fellow receiver Stefon Diggs has a more favorable matchup across from Shaquill Griffin on the outside.
Tyler Lockett has hauled in 78% of passes thrown to him with 20+ air yards this season, the highest mark of any receiver in the league with at least 10 deep ball targets and I think there’s a decent chance he sneaks behind Trae Waynes, whose 1.24 yards allowed per cover snap ranks 55th. Our model favors the Seahawks by 4.1 with a predicted total of 47.5. The Seahawks are also 17-9-1 ATS in prime-time games at CenturyLink Field and tonight they apply to a 71-28-1 ATS Monday night home team situation.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
42.0
33.5
-
Succ Pass Plays
52.5%
48.6%
-
Sack Rate
5.8%
8.3%
-
Int Rate
1.8%
2.9%
-
Deep Pass Rate
14.3%
18.3%
-
Big Pass Yards
31.2%
39.8%
-
NYPP
6.5
6.6
Rush
-
Rush Plays
21.6
28.2
-
RB YPR
3.9
3.7
-
Stuff Rate
27.4%
20.4%
-
Succ Rush Plays
37.6%
49.1%
-
Big Rush Yards
43.6%
28.3%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.9
3.8
Game
-
All Snaps
63.6
61.7
-
Early Down Succ
50.3%
52.8%
-
Succ Rate
47.5%
49.0%
-
Big Yards Rate
35.6%
38.8%
-
Yards Per Play
5.6
5.4
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.2%
1.1%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.2
30.4
-
Run Ratio
34.2%
45.4%
-
Starting Field Pos
29.2
29.0
-
Game Control
-1.2
1.2
Pass
-
Pass Plays
28.4
35.8
-
Succ Pass Plays
46.6%
50.9%
-
Sack Rate
10.5%
6.9%
-
Int Rate
1.6%
2.8%
-
Deep Pass Rate
22.6%
15.3%
-
Big Pass Yards
47.6%
40.0%
-
NYPP
7.2
7.1
Rush
-
Rush Plays
33.4
23.3
-
RB YPR
4.4
4.7
-
Stuff Rate
19.6%
20.9%
-
Succ Rush Plays
47.0%
46.5%
-
Big Rush Yards
45.3%
43.4%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.6
4.9
Game
-
All Snaps
61.8
59.1
-
Early Down Succ
49.1%
51.9%
-
Succ Rate
47.1%
48.8%
-
Big Yards Rate
48.5%
44.7%
-
Yards Per Play
5.7
6.1
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.5%
1.2%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
30.3
29.6
-
Run Ratio
54.2%
39.4%
-
Starting Field Pos
27.9
26.3
-
Game Control
2.5
-2.5
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
SF |
24 – 16 W |
7.6 |
43.6% /
38.9% |
7.7% /
8.3% |
0.0% /
9.1% |
5.8 /
6.6 |
40.6% /
44.0% |
21.9% /
32.0% |
3.6 /
3.6 |
71 /
61 |
43.4% /
41.7% |
42.3% /
41.0% |
24.5% /
60.9% |
4.8 /
5.4 |
1.4% /
1.6% |
45.1% /
41.0% |
33.3 /
23.1 |
| 2 |
@GB |
29 – 29 T |
-6.3 |
56.0% /
48.9% |
4.0% /
8.9% |
2.1% /
0.0% |
8.2 /
5.6 |
44.4% /
54.2% |
5.6% /
25.0% |
3.8 /
4.1 |
68 /
69 |
53.7% /
55.4% |
52.9% /
50.7% |
44.4% /
31.3% |
7.1 /
5.1 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
26.5% /
34.8% |
26.5 /
29.9 |
| 3 |
BUF |
6 – 27 L |
-22.0 |
47.5% /
40.0% |
6.8% /
12.0% |
1.8% /
0.0% |
4.7 /
6.6 |
16.7% /
42.1% |
50.0% /
23.7% |
2.3 /
3.4 |
65 /
63 |
48.0% /
42.9% |
44.6% /
41.3% |
3.8% /
42.1% |
4.5 /
4.6 |
3.1% /
0.0% |
9.2% /
60.3% |
17.7 /
40.2 |
| 4 |
@LA |
31 – 38 L |
-3.9 |
51.9% /
60.0% |
7.4% /
2.9% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
7.3 /
13.0 |
35.3% /
57.1% |
35.3% /
14.3% |
3.2 /
4.8 |
71 /
56 |
45.3% /
68.1% |
47.9% /
58.9% |
38.8% /
55.7% |
6.3 /
9.9 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
23.9% /
37.5% |
27.2 /
26.6 |
| 5 |
@PHI |
23 – 21 W |
7.0 |
74.2% /
80.8% |
3.2% /
11.5% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
9.6 /
10.9 |
44.0% /
58.8% |
20.0% /
11.8% |
3.2 /
4.8 |
56 /
43 |
62.5% /
63.6% |
60.7% /
72.1% |
48.8% /
51.9% |
6.7 /
8.5 |
1.8% /
4.7% |
44.6% /
39.5% |
27.0 /
30.9 |
| 6 |
ARI |
27 – 17 W |
8.0 |
54.1% /
37.1% |
10.8% /
11.4% |
3.0% /
3.2% |
5.8 /
5.9 |
42.4% /
40.0% |
18.2% /
30.0% |
5.9 /
3.1 |
70 /
55 |
54.7% /
48.8% |
48.6% /
38.2% |
31.3% /
41.3% |
5.9 /
4.9 |
1.4% /
1.8% |
47.1% /
36.4% |
30.9 /
25.5 |
| 7 |
@NYJ |
37 – 17 W |
7.4 |
34.1% /
26.7% |
2.4% /
6.7% |
0.0% /
7.1% |
5.6 /
4.3 |
24.0% /
37.5% |
44.0% /
33.3% |
3.6 /
3.0 |
66 /
69 |
35.4% /
33.3% |
30.3% /
30.4% |
58.0% /
50.2% |
4.8 /
3.8 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
37.9% /
34.8% |
41.4 /
27.3 |
| 8 |
NO |
20 – 30 L |
-5.9 |
56.8% /
62.5% |
9.1% /
0.0% |
2.5% /
4.2% |
7.7 /
6.8 |
40.9% /
48.3% |
31.8% /
13.8% |
3.9 /
3.7 |
66 /
53 |
50.9% /
56.8% |
51.5% /
54.7% |
40.2% /
34.1% |
6.4 /
5.1 |
1.5% /
0.0% |
33.3% /
54.7% |
21.6 /
38.3 |
| 9 |
DET |
24 – 9 W |
8.8 |
56.5% /
39.1% |
4.3% /
21.7% |
4.5% /
0.0% |
6.7 /
3.1 |
43.5% /
40.0% |
26.1% /
16.0% |
5.6 /
2.7 |
46 /
71 |
51.4% /
41.2% |
50.0% /
39.4% |
41.0% /
0.0% |
6.2 /
3.0 |
2.2% /
1.4% |
50.0% /
35.2% |
32.6 /
21.7 |
| 11 |
@CHI |
20 – 25 L |
-8.4 |
54.2% /
50.0% |
4.2% /
3.1% |
4.3% /
6.5% |
5.1 /
5.0 |
28.6% /
45.2% |
50.0% /
21.4% |
1.6 /
3.6 |
62 /
74 |
49.0% /
51.8% |
48.4% /
47.3% |
9.3% /
20.6% |
4.3 /
4.2 |
1.6% /
1.4% |
22.6% /
56.8% |
34.1 /
26.9 |
| 12 |
GB |
24 – 17 W |
1.9 |
64.1% /
46.9% |
5.1% /
12.5% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
8.3 /
5.4 |
29.0% /
52.6% |
19.4% /
15.8% |
3.0 /
4.3 |
70 /
51 |
52.9% /
57.5% |
48.6% /
49.0% |
42.1% /
37.4% |
6.0 /
5.0 |
0.0% /
2.0% |
44.3% /
37.3% |
35.6 /
26.6 |
| 13 |
@NE |
10 – 24 L |
-6.9 |
43.5% /
68.8% |
4.3% /
0.0% |
4.5% /
3.1% |
4.0 /
9.7 |
53.8% /
61.5% |
15.4% /
10.3% |
7.3 /
4.1 |
59 /
71 |
51.1% /
69.1% |
45.8% /
64.8% |
41.4% /
42.4% |
4.7 /
6.6 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
22.0% /
54.9% |
26.7 /
33.5 |
| 14 |
@SEA |
7 – 21 L |
-3.5 |
45.7% /
31.8% |
5.7% /
9.1% |
0.0% /
5.0% |
5.7 /
2.7 |
45.5% /
56.8% |
18.2% /
18.2% |
3.5 /
4.9 |
57 /
66 |
55.8% /
56.0% |
45.6% /
48.5% |
39.4% /
36.6% |
4.9 /
4.2 |
1.8% /
0.0% |
38.6% /
66.7% |
24.8 /
26.2 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@DEN |
24 – 27 L |
-1.9 |
35.9% /
57.5% |
15.4% /
2.5% |
6.1% /
7.7% |
6.2 /
8.1 |
18.8% /
50.0% |
25.0% /
21.9% |
4.0 /
4.6 |
55 /
72 |
34.9% /
58.3% |
30.9% /
54.2% |
63.7% /
53.2% |
5.6 /
6.5 |
1.8% /
0.0% |
29.1% /
44.4% |
27.4 /
26.6 |
| 2 |
@CHI |
17 – 24 L |
-7.4 |
43.6% /
52.8% |
15.4% /
5.6% |
3.0% /
5.9% |
5.2 /
5.1 |
45.5% /
48.3% |
13.6% /
13.8% |
3.4 /
3.0 |
61 /
65 |
44.9% /
55.1% |
44.3% /
50.8% |
23.2% /
6.3% |
4.5 /
4.2 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
36.1% /
44.6% |
24.5 /
33.6 |
| 3 |
DAL |
24 – 13 W |
8.3 |
42.9% /
28.2% |
7.1% /
12.8% |
0.0% /
5.9% |
6.5 /
3.5 |
30.0% /
52.6% |
30.0% /
15.8% |
2.9 /
8.7 |
68 /
58 |
34.0% /
39.5% |
35.3% /
36.2% |
34.8% /
51.2% |
4.4 /
5.2 |
0.0% /
1.7% |
58.8% /
32.8% |
27.2 /
25.9 |
| 4 |
@ARI |
20 – 17 W |
2.0 |
48.1% /
42.9% |
7.4% /
3.6% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
5.9 /
6.1 |
50.0% /
39.3% |
23.5% /
35.7% |
5.0 /
3.3 |
61 /
56 |
58.0% /
40.9% |
49.2% /
41.1% |
35.6% /
54.0% |
5.4 /
4.7 |
0.0% /
1.8% |
55.7% /
50.0% |
35.5 /
26.4 |
| 5 |
LA |
31 – 33 L |
1.0 |
60.0% /
83.3% |
13.3% /
4.2% |
0.0% /
8.7% |
12.2 /
13.0 |
53.1% /
40.6% |
18.8% /
15.6% |
5.9 /
4.9 |
47 /
56 |
44.2% /
56.9% |
55.3% /
58.9% |
66.5% /
49.1% |
7.9 /
8.4 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
68.1% /
57.1% |
26.6 /
33.7 |
| 6 |
@OAK |
27 – 3 W |
15.9 |
50.0% /
37.8% |
4.2% /
16.2% |
4.3% /
0.0% |
8.9 /
2.9 |
46.2% /
52.6% |
15.4% /
15.8% |
4.0 /
4.2 |
63 /
56 |
45.7% /
46.5% |
47.6% /
42.9% |
46.9% /
31.9% |
5.9 /
3.3 |
0.0% /
3.6% |
61.9% /
33.9% |
42.2 /
20.5 |
| 8 |
@DET |
28 – 14 W |
8.8 |
57.9% /
55.8% |
10.5% /
7.0% |
0.0% /
2.5% |
12.5 /
6.9 |
50.0% /
30.8% |
23.8% /
23.1% |
4.2 /
2.6 |
61 /
56 |
53.2% /
47.8% |
52.5% /
50.0% |
48.7% /
26.0% |
6.8 /
5.9 |
0.0% /
3.6% |
68.9% /
23.2% |
25.8 /
15.0 |
| 9 |
LAC |
17 – 25 L |
-5.4 |
39.0% /
42.9% |
9.8% /
7.1% |
2.7% /
0.0% |
4.9 /
7.7 |
62.5% /
50.0% |
21.9% /
31.8% |
4.8 /
7.3 |
73 /
50 |
52.7% /
51.2% |
49.3% /
46.0% |
30.3% /
69.9% |
4.9 /
7.5 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
43.8% /
44.0% |
25.1 /
21.2 |
| 10 |
@LA |
31 – 36 L |
-0.6 |
48.3% /
53.7% |
13.8% /
4.9% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
4.9 /
7.5 |
64.7% /
70.8% |
14.7% /
8.3% |
8.0 /
6.3 |
63 /
65 |
64.2% /
65.4% |
57.1% /
60.0% |
66.7% /
36.7% |
6.6 /
7.0 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
54.0% /
36.9% |
24.1 /
30.2 |
| 11 |
GB |
27 – 24 W |
-4.5 |
44.1% /
45.7% |
8.8% /
14.3% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.0 /
8.9 |
47.4% /
38.5% |
7.9% /
15.4% |
4.6 /
3.7 |
72 /
48 |
48.0% /
48.6% |
45.8% /
43.8% |
42.5% /
55.2% |
5.3 /
7.5 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
52.8% /
27.1% |
22.3 /
30.4 |
| 12 |
@CAR |
30 – 27 W |
-1.6 |
59.4% /
66.7% |
6.3% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
3.3% |
10.1 /
8.5 |
25.8% /
59.3% |
25.8% /
25.9% |
2.5 /
8.1 |
63 /
57 |
44.2% /
68.1% |
42.9% /
63.2% |
60.2% /
57.6% |
6.3 /
8.4 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
49.2% /
47.4% |
22.4 /
29.3 |
| 13 |
SF |
43 – 16 W |
14.5 |
45.0% /
49.0% |
15.0% /
6.1% |
0.0% /
2.2% |
8.2 /
7.9 |
60.0% /
26.1% |
16.7% /
30.4% |
5.6 /
2.9 |
50 /
72 |
59.0% /
40.0% |
54.0% /
41.7% |
74.4% /
50.7% |
6.6 /
6.3 |
0.0% /
2.8% |
60.0% /
31.9% |
32.9 /
24.2 |
| 14 |
MIN |
21 – 7 W |
3.5 |
31.8% /
45.7% |
9.1% /
5.7% |
5.0% /
0.0% |
2.7 /
5.7 |
56.8% /
45.5% |
18.2% /
18.2% |
4.9 /
3.5 |
66 /
57 |
56.0% /
55.8% |
48.5% /
45.6% |
36.6% /
39.4% |
4.2 /
4.9 |
0.0% /
1.8% |
66.7% /
38.6% |
26.2 /
24.8 |
Minnesota Vikings
@ 
Seattle Seahawks