Minnesota Vikings @ San Francisco 49ers Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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1-Star Best Bet – *SAN FRANCISCO (-2.5 -120) over Minnesota

It’s no secret that the 49ers want to establish the ground game as San Francisco has only a 52.5% pass play rate (29th). RB Elijah Mitchell should be back after missing last week and he is averaging 4.8 yards per carry while the 49ers other running backs average 3.7 yards per rush. Mitchell will likely gash a Vikings rush defense ranked 30th.

Jimmy Garoppolo’s top receiver Deebo Samuel is leading the league with 3.25 yards per route run this year. Samuel will continue to be a huge part of the offense lined up across from Minnesota CB Bashaud Breeland, who allows a reception every 7.4 cover snaps, which ranks 77th out of 82 qualifying cornerbacks.

It looks like the Vikings will be without both edge rushers Everson Griffen (personal) and Danielle Hunter (torn pectoral muscle) on Sunday. Griffen and Hunter have combined for 46% of Minnesota’s pressures from the defensive line and the tandem is worth 1.8 points.

Kirk Cousins won’t have time in the pocket this week as Vikings’ rookie LT Christian Darrisaw will struggle to contain edge defender Nick Bosa, who ranks 7th in pass rushing efficiency. San Francisco interior defender Arik Armstead ranks 16th in pass rushing efficiency and Minnesota’s interior offensive line is surrendering 7.3 pressures per game.

Our model favors the 49ers by 7.0 points, with a predicted total of 49.2 points, and the Niners are a 1-Star Best Bet at -3 points or less (up to -115).

Team Stats
Game Log

Vikings
49ers

MIN

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 39.00 38.40
Succ Pass Plays 47.4% 45.8%
Sack Rate 3.6% 8.1%
Int Rate 0.5% 2.0%
Deep Pass Rate 16.9% 20.0%
Big Pass Yards 41.3% 41.3%
NYPP 6.87 6.56

Rush

Rush Plays 28.00 26.70
RB YPR 4.13 4.43
Stuff Rate 33.9% 13.9%
Succ Rush Plays 44.6% 56.9%
Big Rush Yards 53.0% 30.9%
Yards Per Rush 4.26 4.76

Game

All Snaps 67.00 65.10
Early Down Succ 48.2% 55.2%
Succ Rate 46.3% 50.4%
Big Yards Rate 44.8% 38.0%
Yards Per Play 5.78 5.82
Fumble Lost Rate 0.6% 0.6%
Time Per Play (sec) 28.39 28.80
Run Ratio 41.8% 41.0%
Starting Field Pos 0.00 0.00
Game Control 2.61 -2.61

Points 25.80 23.90

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2021 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@CIN	24 – 27 L	-3.43	43.4% / 46.9%	5.7% / 15.6%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.34 / 6.78	36.4% / 52.8%	45.5% / 25.0%	3.05 / 4.14	75 / 68	41.1% / 60.4%	41.3% / 50.0%	37.3% / 40.0%	5.37 / 5.38	1.3% / 0.0%	29.3% / 52.9%	24.62 / 27.23
2	@ARZ	33 – 34 L	3.69	51.5% / 56.4%	3.0% / 7.7%	0.0% / 5.6%	7.33 / 9.51	51.9% / 66.7%	33.3% / 19.0%	6.56 / 4.90	60 / 60	58.0% / 66.7%	51.7% / 60.0%	43.7% / 44.9%	6.98 / 7.90	0.0% / 0.0%	45.0% / 35.0%	21.82 / 27.17
3	SEA	30 – 17 W	2.14	69.2% / 55.9%	2.6% / 5.9%	0.0% / 0.0%	8.03 / 8.32	47.1% / 55.6%	23.5% / 11.1%	4.12 / 5.89	73 / 52	57.6% / 63.4%	58.9% / 55.8%	36.1% / 39.6%	6.21 / 7.48	0.0% / 0.0%	46.6% / 34.6%	24.63 / 21.78
4	CLV	7 – 14 L	0.13	35.0% / 33.3%	5.0% / 8.3%	2.6% / 0.0%	4.75 / 3.97	34.8% / 47.4%	39.1% / 10.5%	2.83 / 4.84	63 / 74	37.2% / 42.6%	34.9% / 40.5%	47.4% / 34.2%	4.05 / 4.42	0.0% / 0.0%	36.5% / 51.4%	21.58 / 28.36
5	DET	19 – 17 W	4.04	47.2% / 41.0%	5.6% / 10.3%	2.9% / 2.9%	7.33 / 4.62	35.7% / 54.2%	35.7% / 25.0%	4.29 / 4.50	64 / 63	44.9% / 53.1%	42.2% / 46.0%	35.2% / 25.1%	6.00 / 4.57	1.6% / 1.6%	43.8% / 38.1%	25.58 / 30.55
6	@CAR	34 – 28 W	3.18	54.2% / 28.9%	0.0% / 8.9%	0.0% / 2.4%	7.77 / 4.18	44.4% / 65.2%	27.8% / 17.4%	5.50 / 5.13	84 / 68	51.5% / 48.0%	50.0% / 41.2%	56.9% / 40.0%	6.80 / 4.50	1.2% / 2.9%	42.9% / 33.8%	31.31 / 29.93
8	DAL	16 – 20 L	3.37	27.0% / 40.9%	2.7% / 6.8%	0.0% / 2.4%	4.78 / 7.75	37.5% / 41.7%	33.3% / 8.3%	4.21 / 3.25	61 / 68	37.0% / 39.6%	31.1% / 41.2%	45.6% / 43.4%	4.56 / 6.16	0.0% / 1.5%	39.3% / 35.3%	29.83 / 20.91
9	@BLT	34 – 31 W	5.83	39.3% / 52.3%	0.0% / 6.8%	0.0% / 4.9%	6.68 / 5.75	41.7% / 68.9%	54.2% / 2.2%	5.46 / 5.49	52 / 89	38.9% / 65.2%	40.4% / 60.7%	67.0% / 28.8%	6.12 / 5.62	0.0% / 0.0%	46.2% / 50.6%	29.80 / 23.00
10	@LAC	27 – 20 W	2.14	46.2% / 44.4%	5.1% / 5.6%	0.0% / 0.0%	7.13 / 4.75	57.6% / 57.9%	27.3% / 10.5%	3.12 / 4.32	72 / 55	54.5% / 52.4%	51.4% / 49.1%	36.0% / 23.5%	5.29 / 4.60	1.4% / 0.0%	45.8% / 34.5%	34.09 / 23.90
11	GB	34 – 31 W	5.00	59.5% / 62.9%	5.4% / 5.7%	0.0% / 0.0%	8.59 / 10.63	51.7% / 57.9%	31.0% / 15.8%	3.10 / 5.00	66 / 54	52.8% / 61.9%	56.1% / 61.1%	45.0% / 50.4%	6.18 / 8.65	0.0% / 0.0%	43.9% / 35.2%	0.00 / 0.00

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2021 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@DET	41 – 33 W	9.15	55.6% / 41.7%	3.7% / 5.0%	0.0% / 1.8%	11.52 / 5.23	39.3% / 50.0%	32.1% / 20.8%	4.68 / 4.83	55 / 84	51.1% / 50.0%	47.3% / 44.0%	57.6% / 49.3%	8.04 / 5.12	3.6% / 0.0%	50.9% / 28.6%	31.25 / 28.00
2	@PHI	17 – 11 W	2.03	56.7% / 38.5%	0.0% / 7.7%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.30 / 6.81	44.7% / 58.6%	26.3% / 27.6%	3.08 / 5.21	68 / 55	50.9% / 53.7%	50.0% / 49.1%	23.2% / 52.5%	4.50 / 5.96	0.0% / 0.0%	55.9% / 52.7%	18.67 / 19.44
3	GB	28 – 30 L	-6.58	45.5% / 47.1%	9.1% / 2.9%	2.5% / 0.0%	5.25 / 7.44	52.4% / 52.0%	28.6% / 8.0%	3.00 / 4.00	65 / 59	48.0% / 51.1%	47.7% / 49.2%	17.2% / 41.0%	4.52 / 5.98	1.5% / 0.0%	32.3% / 42.4%	25.10 / 28.50
4	SEA	21 – 28 L	-1.52	46.5% / 30.8%	4.7% / 11.5%	2.4% / 0.0%	7.30 / 4.96	62.1% / 46.4%	10.3% / 28.6%	4.93 / 3.75	72 / 54	62.3% / 43.2%	52.8% / 38.9%	32.5% / 38.6%	6.35 / 4.33	0.0% / 0.0%	40.3% / 51.9%	21.17 / 34.93
5	@ARZ	10 – 17 L	-6.53	29.0% / 45.5%	6.5% / 6.1%	3.4% / 0.0%	6.00 / 6.36	50.0% / 51.9%	21.4% / 25.9%	5.43 / 3.78	59 / 60	45.2% / 54.2%	39.0% / 48.3%	45.6% / 39.0%	5.73 / 5.20	0.0% / 1.7%	47.5% / 45.0%	27.67 / 27.60
7	IND	18 – 30 L	0.02	37.9% / 25.9%	6.9% / 3.7%	7.4% / 0.0%	5.83 / 5.44	50.0% / 42.4%	20.8% / 33.3%	4.63 / 4.48	53 / 60	53.7% / 31.8%	43.4% / 35.0%	49.3% / 54.0%	5.28 / 4.92	3.8% / 3.3%	45.3% / 55.0%	28.36 / 36.46
8	@CHI	33 – 22 W	-0.35	46.4% / 38.7%	0.0% / 12.9%	0.0% / 3.7%	11.50 / 4.77	42.3% / 41.7%	34.6% / 27.8%	5.58 / 4.89	54 / 67	44.2% / 37.5%	44.4% / 40.3%	67.7% / 41.9%	8.65 / 4.84	0.0% / 0.0%	48.1% / 53.7%	32.56 / 27.50
9	ARZ	17 – 31 L	-12.74	57.8% / 62.1%	11.1% / 6.9%	2.5% / 0.0%	6.62 / 9.45	45.5% / 38.5%	27.3% / 17.9%	3.55 / 4.18	56 / 68	64.3% / 51.0%	55.4% / 48.5%	29.6% / 54.6%	6.02 / 6.43	3.6% / 0.0%	19.6% / 57.4%	27.73 / 25.64
10	LA	31 – 7 W	12.03	55.0% / 43.2%	5.0% / 4.5%	0.0% / 4.8%	8.95 / 5.14	50.0% / 60.0%	29.5% / 10.0%	3.55 / 5.20	64 / 54	50.0% / 53.7%	51.6% / 46.3%	32.8% / 36.4%	5.23 / 5.15	0.0% / 0.0%	68.8% / 18.5%	25.56 / 24.40
11	@JAX	30 – 10 W	14.29	66.7% / 42.9%	8.3% / 10.7%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.75 / 5.21	42.9% / 50.0%	26.2% / 18.8%	4.07 / 3.38	66 / 44	51.9% / 45.2%	51.5% / 45.5%	42.9% / 15.1%	5.05 / 4.55	0.0% / 4.5%	63.6% / 36.4%	0.00 / 0.00

Minnesota Vikings @

San Francisco 49ers

Sun, Nov 28

1:25 PM Pacific

Game Analysis