Minnesota Vikings @

Los Angeles Rams

Thu, Sep 27
5:20 PM Pacific
Rotation: 101
Odds: Los Angeles Rams -7, Total: 49.5

Game Analysis

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Lean – Minnesota (+7) over LA RAMS

Thursday night games have typically been underwhelming in recent years but this game features a battle of two marquee teams that may meet again with more on the line in January. While most of the praise showered on the Rams is centered on Sean McVay’s offense, the Rams quietly rank as our best defense this season but they will likely be without two of the best cornerbacks in the league with Marcus Peters listed questionable to play and Aqib Talib out. Peters is an excellent playmaker with 6 more interceptions than any other defender since he joined the league in 2015, while Talib is a shutdown corner ranking top 5 in yards allowed per cover snap each of the past two seasons. The injured cornerbacks surrendered just 10 receptions combined through the first three weeks and both players are worth about a point individually, but we may see a compounding effect with them missing games at the same time.

I expect Minnesota’s offense to be pass-heavy with Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen facing backup cornerbacks all night, especially considering the current state of the Vikings’ ground game. The Vikes lost guard Nick Easton and center Pat Elflein in the preseason and their rushing attack has suffered – ranking 29th so far this year in our metrics. Elflein should be available on Thursday, but Minnesota is still likely to struggle running the ball against a talented Rams’ defensive line.

The Rams rushing attack grades 2nd in our numbers, but they will likely find it difficult to maintain their high standards facing a Vikings defense that allowed just a 38% rush success rate last season (8th) and rank in the top 10 again this season through 3 games. There is a chink in the Vikings’ armor, however, as Minnesota’s defense is surrendering 9.9 yards per target to opposing running backs (31st) after allowing the second-fewest receiving yards out of the backfield a year ago. Todd Gurley will exploit linebacker Anthony Barr in coverage if he doesn’t turn it around, as Gurley was one of only three qualifying running backs last season to gain more than 2 yards per route run. Vikings’ edge defender Everson Griffen missed last week’s game due to mental health issues and he’s been downgraded to out for tonight’s game. Griffen record 13 sacks in 2017, 6th-most in the NFL, and he is worth nearly a point to Minnesota’s defense.

Minnesota knocked about half the world out of their survivor pools last week with their stunning loss as a 16 ½ point favorite to Buffalo, but teams that lose as double-digit favorites tend to bounce-back the next week against the number due to a combination of playing harder in order to save face and a negative shift in public percentage. Such teams are a solid 58% ATS since 1980 (78-57-4). The record is even better if the team off the huge upset loss has a losing spread record for the season while their opponent has a winning spread record, as that tends to result in even more line value. Those teams are 27-8-1 ATS and Minnesota applies to a more general 133-53-8 ATS dog off a loss as a big favorite angle.

Our model would’ve favored the Rams by double-digits if it weren’t for the Peters and Talib injuries but the number is pretty fair based on current personnel and I do like the bounce-back angle that favors Minnesota. I’ll lean with the Vikings at +7 points or more.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Vikings
  • Rams
MIN
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 49.3 35.3
  • Succ Pass Plays 49.0% 42.6%
  • Sack Rate 6.2% 9.7%
  • Int Rate 1.3% 3.0%
  • Deep Pass Rate 13.9% 20.3%
  • Big Pass Yards 25.5% 53.4%
  • NYPP 6.3 6.3



Rush


  • Rush Plays 18.7 29.0
  • RB YPR 3.4 3.7
  • Stuff Rate 25.8% 26.9%
  • Succ Rush Plays 33.9% 46.8%
  • Big Rush Yards 34.2% 31.4%
  • Yards Per Rush 3.2 3.7




Game

  • All Snaps 68.0 64.3
  • Early Down Succ 48.4% 46.6%
  • Succ Rate 46.6% 44.3%
  • Big Yards Rate 24.2% 44.8%
  • Yards Per Play 5.5 5.0
  • Fumble Lost Rate 1.5% 0.5%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 25.5 32.0
  • Run Ratio 26.9% 45.4%
  • Starting Field Pos 25.8 31.1
  • Game Control -6.9 6.9
 
  • Points 19.7 24.0
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