Game Analysis

Lean – LAS VEGAS (+3) over Minnesota

· Kevin O’Connell had left the door open to a change under center during the bye week after Joshua Dobbs averaged less than 5 yppp and threw 4 interceptions against the Bears, but ultimately the Vikings are sticking with Dobbs at quarterback.

· Dobbs will be working with one of the best trio of receivers in the NFL with WR Justin Jefferson suiting up for his first game since week 5 to join tight end TJ Hockenson and WR Jordan Addison, who is averaging 0.32 EPA/target (20th).

· Jefferson was averaging 3.35 yards per route run in the slot before being out with a right hamstring injury (9th) and he will have a favorable matchup on the inside this week as Nate Hobbs is surrendering 1.71 yards per cover snap in the slot, which ranks 30th out of 31 qualifying nickelbacks.

· The Raiders are surrendering a 61% success rate to tight ends (28th) and they will struggle versus Hockenson, who is averaging 1.90 yards per route run (5th).

· Las Vegas RB Josh Jacobs has averaged 4.2 yards per carry with Antonio Pierce as head coach after averaging 3.1 yards before the coaching change. Pierce will see this improvement as validation for his establish the run mantra.

· However, Minnesota’s defense will shut down Jacobs on Sunday. The Vikings are allowing -0.13 EPA/rush (10th) and interior defender Harrison Phillips leads all defensive linemen with 45 tackles in the run game.

· Pierce would be more prudent to let Aidan O’Connell throw as they get back starting LT Kolton Miller, who ranks 4th in pass-blocking efficiency.

· Our model favors the Raiders by 0.8 points, with a predicted total of 40.3 points, but matchups favor the Vikings, which kept us from making Las Vegas a Best Bet or Strong Opinion.