Game Analysis

DETROIT (-3) vs Minnesota

• This game will determine the winner of the NFC North and the top seed in the conference.
• The Lions surrendered a season-high 4 sacks in the last game against Brian Flores’ Vikings defense but Jared Goff was effective when he got the ball out averaging 8.5 yppp.
• Minnesota’s defense is allowing only -0.15 EPA/target (3rd) and they will contain screens the RB Jahmyr Gibbs, who is averaging 1.65 yards per route run (3rd).
• Goff will instead feature WR Amon-Ra St. Brown on the inside. St. Brown has a 67% success rate this season much higher than the 2nd-best wide receiver, Mike Evans, who has a 63% success rate. The league average success rate for wide receivers is 51%.
• St. Brown has a favorable matchup as he will line up across from Vikings nickelback Byron Murphy, who is surrendering 1.72 yards per cover snap in the slot ranking 23rd out of 24 qualifiers.
• I expect Minnesota’s passing attack to be effective as well in a favorable matchup versus a Lions’ defense leading the NFL with a 34% Cover 1 rate and the 7th-highest blitz rate. Sam Darnold is averaging 21% more yppp against Cover 1 compared to other coverages (7th) and 20% more yards per attempt versus the blitz than a standard pass rush (3rd).
• Our model favors Detroit by 1.1 points, with a predicted total of 57.0 points but the Lions apply to a 39-11-1 ATS final game situation and they tend to perform well in high-scoring games (26-5-1 ATS up to -7 when the total on the game is 45 points or higher).