Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Lean – DETROIT (+6) over Minnesota

The Vikings gained 6.6 yards per play in their first game with Kevin Stefanski at offensive coordinator. One major change was Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen both running 36% of their routes in the slot, which was an uptick for Diggs, who came into the game lining up in the slot on just 22% of his routes, and a decline for Thielen, who came in lining up in the slot on 58% of his routes. It will be interesting to see if moving those two around more often will continue to reap rewards. Minnesota’s offensive line has struggled to protect Kirk Cousins all season, ranking 27th in pass blocking efficiency, but they catch a break in this matchup as the Lions will be without their top 2 pass rushers in Ezekiel Ansah and Da’Shawn Hand. The Vikings rush offense ranks 31st mostly due to poor play in the trenches, as Dalvin Cook now leads the NFL with 0.27 avoided tackles per touch coming off 163 yards from scrimmage and 2 touchdowns performance last week. Cook’s production will likely drop-off against a Lions rush defense ranked 3rd since trading for Damon Harrison and his league-leading 40 run stops.

Detroit’s budding star WR Kenny Golladay ran 43% of his routes in the slot last week to avoid Tre’Davious White on the outside and the strategy paid off as he gained 5.33 yards per route run on the inside. I could imagine the Lions might try something similar in this matchup to steer clear of Xavier Rhodes. Theo Riddick has received the second-most targets on the team since the Golden Tate trade and I expect him to find success underneath against a Vikings defense allowing 7.4 yards per target to opposing running backs (28th), especially with Matt Stafford looking for check-downs as he feels pressure off the right side all afternoon. Tackle Rick Wagner is banged-up and doesn’t stand a chance of staying in front of Danielle Hunter, who ranks 2nd in pass rush efficiency.

Our model favors the Vikings by 3.9 with a predicted total of 44.8. I’ll stay away from the over because of a strong division under angle that applies to this game, but I’ll lean with Detroit based on the line value and an 89-170-9 ATS final road game situation that applies to the Vikings.

Team Stats
Game Log

Vikings
Lions

MIN

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 40.6 33.4
Succ Pass Plays 52.4% 46.6%
Sack Rate 6.0% 9.7%
Int Rate 2.0% 2.7%
Deep Pass Rate 14.4% 19.2%
Big Pass Yards 33.3% 36.9%
NYPP 6.7 6.2

Rush

Rush Plays 23.1 27.6
RB YPR 4.0 4.1
Stuff Rate 26.4% 20.8%
Succ Rush Plays 38.7% 48.8%
Big Rush Yards 44.5% 32.0%
Yards Per Rush 4.0 4.1

Game

All Snaps 63.7 61.1
Early Down Succ 51.0% 51.6%
Succ Rate 47.8% 47.6%
Big Yards Rate 37.2% 40.6%
Yards Per Play 5.6 5.3
Fumble Lost Rate 1.2% 1.0%
Time Per Play (sec) 28.4 30.4
Run Ratio 36.4% 44.8%
Starting Field Pos 29.9 28.7
Game Control -0.2 0.2

Points 23.1 22.0

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2018 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	SF	24 – 16 W	7.6	43.6% / 38.9%	7.7% / 8.3%	0.0% / 9.1%	5.8 / 6.6	40.6% / 44.0%	21.9% / 32.0%	3.6 / 3.6	71 / 61	43.4% / 41.7%	42.3% / 41.0%	24.5% / 60.9%	4.8 / 5.4	1.4% / 1.6%	45.1% / 41.0%	33.3 / 23.1
2	@GB	29 – 29 T	-6.3	56.0% / 48.9%	4.0% / 8.9%	2.1% / 0.0%	8.2 / 5.6	44.4% / 54.2%	5.6% / 25.0%	3.8 / 4.1	68 / 69	53.7% / 55.4%	52.9% / 50.7%	44.4% / 31.3%	7.1 / 5.1	0.0% / 0.0%	26.5% / 34.8%	26.5 / 29.9
3	BUF	6 – 27 L	-22.0	47.5% / 40.0%	6.8% / 12.0%	1.8% / 0.0%	4.7 / 6.6	16.7% / 42.1%	50.0% / 23.7%	2.3 / 3.4	65 / 63	48.0% / 42.9%	44.6% / 41.3%	3.8% / 42.1%	4.5 / 4.6	3.1% / 0.0%	9.2% / 60.3%	17.7 / 40.2
4	@LA	31 – 38 L	-3.9	51.9% / 60.0%	7.4% / 2.9%	0.0% / 0.0%	7.3 / 13.0	35.3% / 57.1%	35.3% / 14.3%	3.2 / 4.8	71 / 56	45.3% / 68.1%	47.9% / 58.9%	38.8% / 55.7%	6.3 / 9.9	1.4% / 0.0%	23.9% / 37.5%	27.2 / 26.6
5	@PHI	23 – 21 W	7.0	74.2% / 80.8%	3.2% / 11.5%	0.0% / 0.0%	9.6 / 10.9	44.0% / 58.8%	20.0% / 11.8%	3.2 / 4.8	56 / 43	62.5% / 63.6%	60.7% / 72.1%	48.8% / 51.9%	6.7 / 8.5	1.8% / 4.7%	44.6% / 39.5%	27.0 / 30.9
6	ARI	27 – 17 W	8.0	54.1% / 37.1%	10.8% / 11.4%	3.0% / 3.2%	5.8 / 5.9	42.4% / 40.0%	18.2% / 30.0%	5.9 / 3.1	70 / 55	54.7% / 48.8%	48.6% / 38.2%	31.3% / 41.3%	5.9 / 4.9	1.4% / 1.8%	47.1% / 36.4%	30.9 / 25.5
7	@NYJ	37 – 17 W	7.4	34.1% / 26.7%	2.4% / 6.7%	0.0% / 7.1%	5.6 / 4.3	24.0% / 37.5%	44.0% / 33.3%	3.6 / 3.0	66 / 69	35.4% / 33.3%	30.3% / 30.4%	58.0% / 50.2%	4.8 / 3.8	0.0% / 1.4%	37.9% / 34.8%	41.4 / 27.3
8	NO	20 – 30 L	-5.9	56.8% / 62.5%	9.1% / 0.0%	2.5% / 4.2%	7.7 / 6.8	40.9% / 48.3%	31.8% / 13.8%	3.9 / 3.7	66 / 53	50.9% / 56.8%	51.5% / 54.7%	40.2% / 34.1%	6.4 / 5.1	1.5% / 0.0%	33.3% / 54.7%	21.6 / 38.3
9	DET	24 – 9 W	8.8	56.5% / 39.1%	4.3% / 21.7%	4.5% / 0.0%	6.7 / 3.1	43.5% / 40.0%	26.1% / 16.0%	5.6 / 2.7	46 / 71	51.4% / 41.2%	50.0% / 39.4%	41.0% / 0.0%	6.2 / 3.0	2.2% / 1.4%	50.0% / 35.2%	32.6 / 21.7
11	@CHI	20 – 25 L	-8.4	54.2% / 50.0%	4.2% / 3.1%	4.3% / 6.5%	5.1 / 5.0	28.6% / 45.2%	50.0% / 21.4%	1.6 / 3.6	62 / 74	49.0% / 51.8%	48.4% / 47.3%	9.3% / 20.6%	4.3 / 4.2	1.6% / 1.4%	22.6% / 56.8%	34.1 / 26.9
12	GB	24 – 17 W	1.9	64.1% / 46.9%	5.1% / 12.5%	0.0% / 0.0%	8.3 / 5.4	29.0% / 52.6%	19.4% / 15.8%	3.0 / 4.3	70 / 51	52.9% / 57.5%	48.6% / 49.0%	42.1% / 37.4%	6.0 / 5.0	0.0% / 2.0%	44.3% / 37.3%	35.6 / 26.6
13	@NE	10 – 24 L	-6.9	43.5% / 68.8%	4.3% / 0.0%	4.5% / 3.1%	4.0 / 9.7	53.8% / 61.5%	15.4% / 10.3%	7.3 / 4.1	59 / 71	51.1% / 69.1%	45.8% / 64.8%	41.4% / 42.4%	4.7 / 6.6	0.0% / 0.0%	22.0% / 54.9%	26.7 / 33.5
14	@SEA	7 – 21 L	-3.5	45.7% / 31.8%	5.7% / 9.1%	0.0% / 5.0%	5.7 / 2.7	45.5% / 56.8%	18.2% / 18.2%	3.5 / 4.9	57 / 66	55.8% / 56.0%	45.6% / 48.5%	39.4% / 36.6%	4.9 / 4.2	1.8% / 0.0%	38.6% / 66.7%	24.8 / 26.2
15	MIA	41 – 17 W	13.1	52.2% / 21.2%	8.7% / 27.3%	4.8% / 0.0%	8.6 / 1.1	52.4% / 45.0%	14.3% / 25.0%	5.3 / 7.8	65 / 53	59.2% / 36.8%	52.3% / 30.2%	57.9% / 64.2%	6.5 / 3.6	0.0% / 0.0%	64.6% / 37.7%	39.4 / 25.2

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2018 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	NYJ	17 – 48 L	-11.9	44.2% / 65.2%	0.0% / 8.7%	9.6% / 4.8%	5.8 / 7.8	37.5% / 32.6%	25.0% / 9.3%	2.5 / 4.0	68 / 66	51.0% / 53.8%	42.6% / 43.9%	37.9% / 55.1%	5.0 / 5.4	0.0% / 1.5%	23.5% / 65.2%	23.0 / 40.7
2	@SF	27 – 30 L	-5.3	43.6% / 53.1%	3.6% / 18.8%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.0 / 4.9	44.4% / 44.8%	5.6% / 24.1%	5.4 / 6.6	73 / 61	44.6% / 56.3%	43.8% / 49.2%	38.4% / 48.7%	5.8 / 5.7	1.4% / 0.0%	24.7% / 47.5%	24.8 / 32.3
3	NE	26 – 10 W	8.1	61.1% / 42.9%	2.8% / 7.1%	2.9% / 3.8%	7.1 / 4.3	45.5% / 57.9%	21.2% / 21.1%	4.8 / 4.7	69 / 47	54.5% / 56.8%	53.6% / 48.9%	36.7% / 19.1%	6.0 / 4.4	0.0% / 0.0%	47.8% / 40.4%	30.2 / 26.4
4	@DAL	24 – 26 L	-1.7	54.5% / 50.0%	9.1% / 10.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	8.7 / 7.7	40.0% / 55.6%	25.0% / 22.2%	4.8 / 5.1	53 / 66	47.6% / 56.9%	49.1% / 53.0%	64.1% / 51.6%	7.2 / 6.3	0.0% / 0.0%	37.7% / 54.5%	23.8 / 21.8
5	GB	31 – 23 W	13.9	52.9% / 80.6%	17.6% / 11.1%	0.0% / 0.0%	10.0 / 11.8	34.5% / 52.4%	27.6% / 9.5%	3.3 / 4.7	46 / 57	32.6% / 55.6%	41.3% / 70.2%	37.7% / 41.2%	5.8 / 9.2	0.0% / 5.3%	63.0% / 36.8%	46.1 / 20.5
7	@MIA	32 – 21 W	8.1	60.9% / 48.6%	4.3% / 11.4%	0.0% / 0.0%	9.1 / 6.1	54.1% / 47.4%	21.6% / 26.3%	6.8 / 5.6	60 / 54	66.0% / 46.5%	56.7% / 48.1%	60.8% / 40.4%	7.7 / 6.0	0.0% / 0.0%	61.7% / 35.2%	23.0 / 25.2
8	SEA	14 – 28 L	-8.8	55.8% / 57.9%	7.0% / 10.5%	2.5% / 0.0%	6.9 / 12.5	30.8% / 50.0%	23.1% / 23.8%	2.6 / 4.2	56 / 61	47.8% / 53.2%	50.0% / 52.5%	26.0% / 48.7%	5.9 / 6.8	3.6% / 0.0%	23.2% / 68.9%	15.0 / 25.8
9	@MIN	9 – 24 L	-8.8	39.1% / 56.5%	21.7% / 4.3%	0.0% / 4.5%	3.1 / 6.7	40.0% / 43.5%	16.0% / 26.1%	2.7 / 5.6	71 / 46	41.2% / 51.4%	39.4% / 50.0%	0.0% / 41.0%	3.0 / 6.2	1.4% / 2.2%	35.2% / 50.0%	21.7 / 32.6
10	@CHI	22 – 34 L	-15.7	43.8% / 58.1%	12.5% / 3.2%	4.8% / 0.0%	4.8 / 11.2	54.2% / 31.8%	29.2% / 36.4%	3.2 / 2.5	72 / 53	50.0% / 48.8%	47.2% / 47.2%	25.9% / 66.7%	4.2 / 7.6	1.4% / 0.0%	33.3% / 41.5%	28.8 / 33.4
11	CAR	20 – 19 W	1.3	39.5% / 53.7%	2.6% / 7.3%	0.0% / 2.6%	5.7 / 8.1	34.5% / 56.3%	31.0% / 18.8%	3.3 / 3.5	67 / 57	42.0% / 56.5%	37.3% / 54.4%	37.9% / 51.4%	4.6 / 6.8	0.0% / 0.0%	43.3% / 28.1%	31.9 / 16.4
12	CHI	16 – 23 L	-0.5	47.5% / 50.0%	5.0% / 9.5%	5.3% / 0.0%	5.6 / 5.4	58.3% / 31.3%	4.2% / 25.0%	4.6 / 2.4	64 / 58	56.3% / 51.1%	51.6% / 44.8%	27.9% / 24.5%	5.2 / 4.6	0.0% / 1.7%	37.5% / 27.6%	27.1 / 27.2
13	LA	16 – 30 L	-4.6	39.5% / 42.9%	10.5% / 5.7%	2.9% / 3.0%	5.5 / 5.6	46.2% / 45.2%	30.8% / 12.9%	3.9 / 4.9	64 / 66	48.1% / 47.1%	42.2% / 43.9%	46.8% / 38.7%	4.8 / 5.2	1.6% / 1.5%	40.6% / 47.0%	25.7 / 32.0
14	@ARI	17 – 3 W	4.3	33.3% / 40.9%	4.2% / 6.8%	0.0% / 2.4%	4.0 / 5.0	41.9% / 19.0%	32.3% / 33.3%	3.9 / 2.9	55 / 65	39.5% / 33.3%	38.2% / 33.8%	18.3% / 7.2%	4.0 / 4.3	1.8% / 0.0%	56.4% / 32.3%	25.4 / 23.2
15	@BUF	13 – 14 L	2.4	44.8% / 40.7%	0.0% / 3.7%	0.0% / 0.0%	7.2 / 7.2	53.8% / 43.6%	26.9% / 12.8%	4.0 / 3.1	55 / 66	52.4% / 50.0%	49.1% / 42.4%	61.7% / 43.3%	5.7 / 4.8	0.0% / 0.0%	47.3% / 59.1%	20.7 / 23.1

Minnesota Vikings @

Detroit Lions

Sun, Dec 23

10:00 AM Pacific

Game Analysis