Game Analysis
Lean – DETROIT (+3/+2.5) over Minnesota
The Lion’s resurgent offense has them back in the playoff picture for this Thanksgiving Day game. Detroit is averaging 6.6 yards per play in their last 4 games without a credible rushing attack as Matthew Stafford threw for 8.9 yards per pass play during the stretch. However, I expect some Lions’ regression this week against a Vikings defense allowing 4.7 yards per play, which ranks 3rd in the NFL. Everson Griffen’s 10 sacks rank 4th in the NFL and Minnesota’s pass rush will enoy a good matchup against a Detroit offensive line allowing an 8.4% sack rate (27th).
The Vikings ground game is showing signs of life for the first time since the Davlin Cook injury. Minnesota gained 4.9 yards per rush last week against the Rams and they will face a struggling Lions rush defense on Thursday. Detroit surrendered 6.3 ypr combined over the last three weeks and I expect the Vikings to find success running the football.
I was surprised that my model favors Detroit by a couple of points. There is no value here but the technical analysis does favor Detroit, as the Lions apply to a 198-119-4 ATS match-up situation that plays high-scoring teams at home against good defensive teams. I’ll lean slightly with Detroit based on that angle.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
35.4
38.7
-
Succ Pass Plays
52.3%
43.4%
-
Sack Rate
2.8%
6.9%
-
Int Rate
1.5%
2.2%
-
Deep Pass Rate
21.1%
16.2%
-
Big Pass Yards
41.7%
32.5%
-
NYPP
7.2
5.5
Rush
-
Rush Plays
31.6
23.9
-
RB YPR
3.8
3.3
-
Stuff Rate
25.3%
22.3%
-
Succ Rush Plays
41.7%
39.6%
-
Big Rush Yards
41.5%
16.4%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.0
3.3
Game
-
All Snaps
67.0
62.6
-
Early Down Succ
48.7%
46.1%
-
Succ Rate
46.5%
42.4%
-
Big Yards Rate
43.5%
29.0%
-
Yards Per Play
5.6
4.7
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.9%
0.7%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.4
26.9
-
Run Ratio
46.9%
37.6%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.5
28.1
-
Game Control
2.9
-2.9
Pass
-
Pass Plays
39.3
36.9
-
Succ Pass Plays
45.1%
42.9%
-
Sack Rate
8.8%
5.5%
-
Int Rate
1.2%
3.0%
-
Deep Pass Rate
18.1%
21.9%
-
Big Pass Yards
42.3%
38.7%
-
NYPP
6.7
6.6
Rush
-
Rush Plays
24.8
26.9
-
RB YPR
3.2
4.1
-
Stuff Rate
33.0%
19.1%
-
Succ Rush Plays
35.6%
48.6%
-
Big Rush Yards
48.7%
33.1%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.4
4.2
Game
-
All Snaps
64.1
63.8
-
Early Down Succ
43.5%
47.7%
-
Succ Rate
41.6%
44.9%
-
Big Yards Rate
45.4%
41.5%
-
Yards Per Play
5.3
5.6
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.1%
1.3%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
29.0
27.5
-
Run Ratio
39.0%
41.9%
-
Starting Field Pos
29.9
27.0
-
Game Control
-1.2
1.2
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
NO |
29 – 19 W |
6.6 |
63.6% /
60.5% |
3.0% /
2.6% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
10.3 /
7.5 |
27.3% /
28.6% |
33.3% /
14.3% |
4.0 /
2.9 |
66 /
59 |
44.7% /
52.1% |
45.5% /
49.2% |
68.0% /
29.9% |
7.2 /
5.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
50.0% /
35.6% |
24.9 /
22.4 |
| 2 |
@PIT |
9 – 26 L |
-9.3 |
32.5% /
40.5% |
5.0% /
5.4% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
3.7 /
6.3 |
50.0% /
41.2% |
25.0% /
20.6% |
4.6 /
3.1 |
60 /
71 |
42.9% /
48.1% |
38.3% /
40.8% |
45.1% /
34.1% |
4.0 /
4.7 |
1.7% /
0.0% |
33.3% /
47.9% |
23.9 /
31.8 |
| 3 |
TB |
34 – 17 W |
13.1 |
63.6% /
57.1% |
0.0% /
4.8% |
0.0% /
7.5% |
11.2 /
7.5 |
37.5% /
44.4% |
12.5% /
11.1% |
3.2 /
2.9 |
73 /
51 |
52.7% /
60.0% |
49.3% /
54.9% |
45.3% /
16.7% |
6.8 /
6.7 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
54.8% /
17.6% |
27.3 /
24.8 |
| 4 |
DET |
7 – 14 L |
-2.8 |
40.6% /
40.5% |
6.3% /
16.2% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.2 /
4.2 |
63.6% /
32.4% |
9.1% /
29.4% |
4.0 /
2.9 |
54 /
71 |
55.8% /
43.4% |
50.0% /
36.6% |
42.3% /
31.1% |
5.3 /
3.6 |
5.6% /
0.0% |
40.7% /
47.9% |
25.2 /
30.0 |
| 5 |
@CHI |
20 – 17 W |
0.9 |
50.0% /
37.0% |
11.1% /
3.7% |
0.0% /
3.8% |
3.9 /
5.9 |
35.5% /
48.3% |
25.8% /
13.8% |
5.1 /
4.0 |
67 /
56 |
44.2% /
46.5% |
43.3% /
42.9% |
30.3% /
34.7% |
4.5 /
4.9 |
0.0% /
1.8% |
46.3% /
51.8% |
30.9 /
26.6 |
| 6 |
GB |
23 – 10 W |
5.9 |
44.7% /
39.0% |
0.0% /
9.8% |
2.6% /
8.1% |
6.3 /
3.8 |
35.3% /
20.8% |
41.2% /
29.2% |
3.3 /
3.0 |
72 /
65 |
43.9% /
33.3% |
40.3% /
32.3% |
46.0% /
11.5% |
4.9 /
3.5 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
47.2% /
36.9% |
30.2 /
30.1 |
| 7 |
BAL |
24 – 16 W |
5.1 |
54.8% /
36.4% |
0.0% /
11.4% |
3.2% /
0.0% |
6.1 /
3.3 |
39.4% /
40.0% |
27.3% /
35.0% |
5.1 /
3.2 |
64 /
64 |
46.9% /
36.2% |
46.9% /
37.5% |
26.3% /
29.8% |
5.6 /
3.3 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
51.6% /
31.3% |
33.2 /
25.4 |
| 8 |
@CLE |
33 – 16 W |
1.9 |
52.3% /
29.7% |
2.3% /
8.1% |
2.3% /
0.0% |
6.5 /
4.4 |
41.2% /
54.5% |
29.4% /
9.1% |
2.6 /
5.2 |
78 /
59 |
50.0% /
42.2% |
47.4% /
39.0% |
28.8% /
41.3% |
4.8 /
4.7 |
0.0% /
3.4% |
43.6% /
37.3% |
32.8 /
31.2 |
| 10 |
@WAS |
38 – 30 W |
6.2 |
65.5% /
45.7% |
0.0% /
2.2% |
6.9% /
2.2% |
10.5 /
6.8 |
51.5% /
46.4% |
30.3% /
21.4% |
3.2 /
2.9 |
62 /
74 |
60.9% /
49.1% |
58.1% /
45.9% |
52.2% /
43.0% |
6.6 /
5.3 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
53.2% /
37.8% |
34.6 /
34.1 |
| 11 |
LA |
24 – 7 W |
1.7 |
55.3% /
47.4% |
0.0% /
5.3% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
7.4 /
5.5 |
36.1% /
38.9% |
19.4% /
38.9% |
4.8 /
2.6 |
74 /
56 |
44.6% /
50.0% |
45.9% /
44.6% |
50.2% /
18.0% |
6.1 /
4.6 |
0.0% /
1.8% |
48.6% /
32.1% |
22.2 /
24.6 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
ARI |
35 – 23 W |
-2.7 |
47.6% /
42.9% |
2.4% /
2.0% |
2.4% /
6.3% |
6.8 /
5.4 |
35.7% /
38.9% |
21.4% /
16.7% |
3.0 /
2.5 |
70 /
67 |
42.3% /
41.2% |
42.9% /
41.8% |
27.4% /
29.4% |
5.3 /
4.6 |
0.0% /
1.5% |
40.0% /
26.9% |
36.6 /
28.5 |
| 2 |
@NYG |
24 – 10 W |
7.5 |
33.3% /
37.8% |
12.5% /
13.5% |
0.0% /
3.1% |
5.0 /
5.6 |
43.8% /
38.9% |
34.4% /
27.8% |
4.3 /
3.4 |
56 /
55 |
37.5% /
41.5% |
39.3% /
38.2% |
42.4% /
30.0% |
4.6 /
4.9 |
1.8% /
0.0% |
57.1% /
32.7% |
37.4 /
24.3 |
| 3 |
ATL |
26 – 30 L |
-6.3 |
40.4% /
48.6% |
4.3% /
5.4% |
0.0% /
8.6% |
5.4 /
7.5 |
31.6% /
48.3% |
26.3% /
13.8% |
3.7 /
5.2 |
66 /
66 |
41.5% /
50.9% |
37.9% /
48.5% |
31.8% /
34.7% |
4.9 /
6.5 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
28.8% /
43.9% |
29.7 /
27.8 |
| 4 |
@MIN |
14 – 7 W |
2.8 |
40.5% /
40.6% |
16.2% /
6.3% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
4.2 /
6.2 |
32.4% /
63.6% |
29.4% /
9.1% |
2.9 /
4.0 |
71 /
54 |
43.4% /
55.8% |
36.6% /
50.0% |
31.1% /
42.3% |
3.6 /
5.3 |
0.0% /
5.6% |
47.9% /
40.7% |
30.0 /
25.2 |
| 5 |
CAR |
24 – 27 L |
-6.3 |
51.2% /
50.0% |
14.6% /
8.3% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
4.7 /
9.3 |
40.0% /
17.6% |
40.0% /
32.4% |
3.3 /
0.9 |
56 /
70 |
52.4% /
37.0% |
48.2% /
34.3% |
53.7% /
53.7% |
4.3 /
5.2 |
1.8% /
0.0% |
26.8% /
48.6% |
29.8 /
31.7 |
| 6 |
@NO |
38 – 52 L |
-15.8 |
35.1% /
45.2% |
8.8% /
0.0% |
5.8% /
6.5% |
4.9 /
6.0 |
15.8% /
45.9% |
36.8% /
13.5% |
3.5 /
5.2 |
76 /
68 |
24.6% /
50.9% |
30.3% /
45.6% |
53.3% /
51.7% |
4.6 /
5.6 |
2.6% /
1.5% |
25.0% /
54.4% |
27.6 /
29.4 |
| 8 |
PIT |
15 – 20 L |
-1.9 |
48.9% /
41.9% |
4.3% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
3.2% |
8.7 /
10.2 |
50.0% /
41.9% |
27.3% /
22.6% |
3.2 /
2.5 |
69 /
62 |
58.2% /
41.9% |
49.3% /
41.9% |
58.1% /
53.2% |
7.0 /
6.4 |
1.4% /
1.6% |
31.9% /
50.0% |
22.8 /
24.8 |
| 9 |
@GB |
30 – 17 W |
9.8 |
64.7% /
43.9% |
2.9% /
7.3% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
10.4 /
5.7 |
24.2% /
70.6% |
45.5% /
11.8% |
1.9 /
4.6 |
67 /
58 |
40.7% /
59.6% |
44.8% /
51.7% |
43.2% /
25.4% |
6.2 /
5.4 |
1.5% /
0.0% |
49.3% /
29.3% |
32.5 /
25.8 |
| 10 |
CLE |
38 – 24 W |
0.7 |
36.7% /
29.5% |
13.3% /
9.1% |
3.8% /
2.5% |
8.0 /
4.8 |
42.9% /
60.6% |
28.6% /
30.3% |
5.0 /
6.1 |
51 /
77 |
41.7% /
41.4% |
39.2% /
42.9% |
73.8% /
48.9% |
6.8 /
5.4 |
0.0% /
1.3% |
41.2% /
42.9% |
28.8 /
28.4 |
| 11 |
@CHI |
27 – 24 W |
-0.0 |
52.9% /
48.4% |
8.8% /
3.2% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
8.4 /
5.7 |
40.0% /
60.0% |
40.0% /
13.3% |
2.6 /
7.4 |
59 /
61 |
53.2% /
56.9% |
47.5% /
54.1% |
39.4% /
45.5% |
6.0 /
6.5 |
1.7% /
1.6% |
42.4% /
49.2% |
24.0 /
23.9 |
Minnesota Vikings
@ 
Detroit Lions