Game Analysis

DALLAS (-5.5) vs Minnesota

• Dallas could be getting back three starters this week in CB Trevon Diggs, LT Tyler Guyton, and WR CeeDee Lamb, who got knocked out last week.
• Cowboys’ backup cornerback Reddy Steward is allowing 0.10 more yards per cover snap than Diggs.
• Dallas backup LT Nathan Thomas has started in weeks 5, 13, and 14 and surrendered a league-high 12 pressures in those weeks.
• Lamb is averaging 0.96 more yards per route run compared to Cowboys’ backup WR Ryan Flournoy.
• Lamb and Dallas wide receiver George Pickens have combined for 40 targets with 20+ air yards, the most by a tandem in the NFL. However, the Vikings are leading the NFL with a 68% two-high safety rate and will shut down the downfield passing attack. Dak Prescott’s yppp against two-high coverage is only 81% of his yppp versus single-high (31st).
• Prescott will need to get the ball out quickly versus Minnesota’s league-high 63% blitz rate. Prescott is averaging 15% more yards per attempt against the blitz compared to a standard pass rush (3rd).
• JJ McCarthy has a favorable matchup versus a Cowboys defense with a 31% cover 3 rate (3rd-highest). Cover 3’s structure creates exploitable seams and crossing opportunities that align perfectly with Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell’s route concepts. O’Connell’s offenses thrive on high-low reads, flood concepts, and deep overs that pull the deep safety out of position, leaving intermediate windows open for chunk gains, and Minnesota is averaging 23% more yppp against Cover 3 compared to other coverages (8th).
• Our model favors the Cowboys by 6.7 points, with a predicted total of 46.2 points.