Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Lean – CHICAGO (-2) over Minnesota

The Vikings have established an identity by running the ball on 61% of their plays. For context, only one team in the last three years has finished a full season with a run rate above 50%. Dalvin Cook became the 15th running back all time to rush for 100+ yards in each of his week 1-3 games. Cook has forced 18 missed tackles (3rd) and Minnesota’s ground game ranks 3rd in our numbers. However, I do not expect the success to continue on Sunday versus the Bears 2nd-rated rush defense. Kirk Cousins will have to throw the ball. Adam Thielen was held to 6.5 yards per target in two games against Chicago last year, 2.5 yards per target below his season average, but there’s reason to believe he’ll be open this time around. The Bears lost one of the league’s top nickelbacks, Bryce Callahan, this offseason and Thielen now has a much better matchup on the inside against the mediocre Buster Skrine. The Vikings offensive line ranks 27th in pass blocking efficiency and Cousins will be forced to find Thielen in the slot quickly before Chicago’s defensive front can get to him.

Mitch Trubisky has thrown for just 5.1 yards per pass play in 4 games against Mike Zimmer’s defense. Vikings edge defender Danielle Hunter ranks 3rd in pass rush efficiency and could take advantage of Bobby Massie, who missed last week’s game with vertigo. Trubisky targets running backs at the highest rate in the league, which could be successful with Vikings’ linebacker Anthony Barr’s status in question. Minnesota’s rush defense ranks 20th this year, but their average finish is 8th under Mike Zimmer so I expect them to improve going forward.

The NFC North is 7-0-1 against everyone else to start the season and this game will go a long way into seeing who comes out of the gauntlet. Our model favors Chicago by 3.3, with a predicted total of 38.3 points, and the Bears apply to a 77-19-1 ATS situation. I’ll lean with the Bears.

Team Stats
Game Log

Vikings
Bears

MIN

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 21.7 41.3
Succ Pass Plays 47.2% 48.4%
Sack Rate 4.0% 8.0%
Int Rate 2.1% 2.4%
Deep Pass Rate 16.5% 16.3%
Big Pass Yards 57.4% 30.2%
NYPP 8.0 5.5

Rush

Rush Plays 34.3 23.3
RB YPR 6.0 4.1
Stuff Rate 17.6% 21.9%
Succ Rush Plays 49.2% 46.9%
Big Rush Yards 61.1% 40.6%
Yards Per Rush 5.8 4.4

Game

All Snaps 56.0 64.7
Early Down Succ 47.4% 52.2%
Succ Rate 45.7% 48.5%
Big Yards Rate 59.8% 32.7%
Yards Per Play 6.3 5.1
Fumble Lost Rate 1.1% 1.5%
Time Per Play (sec) 31.6 28.6
Run Ratio 62.3% 35.9%
Starting Field Pos 30.3 25.8
Game Control 8.5 -8.5

Points 26.0 15.7

CHI

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 37.0 44.7
Succ Pass Plays 43.5% 49.1%
Sack Rate 6.3% 8.9%
Int Rate 1.8% 3.0%
Deep Pass Rate 15.7% 15.1%
Big Pass Yards 32.1% 35.2%
NYPP 4.9 5.4

Rush

Rush Plays 22.7 22.3
RB YPR 4.0 3.0
Stuff Rate 22.7% 26.8%
Succ Rush Plays 43.3% 43.3%
Big Rush Yards 24.9% 22.0%
Yards Per Rush 4.0 3.1

Game

All Snaps 59.7 67.0
Early Down Succ 45.4% 52.2%
Succ Rate 43.3% 46.9%
Big Yards Rate 34.1% 32.5%
Yards Per Play 4.6 4.6
Fumble Lost Rate 0.0% 1.0%
Time Per Play (sec) 29.4 27.9
Run Ratio 38.7% 33.7%
Starting Field Pos 26.7 28.1
Game Control 4.6 -4.6

Points 16.7 13.0

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2019 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	ATL	28 – 12 W	18.6	63.6% / 48.0%	9.1% / 8.0%	0.0% / 4.3%	8.8 / 5.4	36.8% / 41.2%	26.3% / 29.4%	4.5 / 4.3	49 / 67	43.2% / 47.4%	42.9% / 46.3%	58.0% / 36.5%	5.5 / 5.1	0.0% / 1.5%	77.6% / 25.4%	33.7 / 26.5
2	@GB	16 – 21 L	-9.0	30.3% / 44.4%	3.0% / 5.6%	6.3% / 0.0%	6.8 / 5.3	55.6% / 54.5%	18.5% / 21.2%	7.3 / 4.4	60 / 69	44.7% / 54.7%	41.7% / 49.3%	65.6% / 32.5%	7.0 / 4.9	3.3% / 2.9%	45.0% / 47.8%	28.7 / 28.5
3	OAK	34 – 14 W	15.9	47.6% / 52.6%	0.0% / 10.5%	0.0% / 2.9%	8.3 / 5.6	55.3% / 45.0%	7.9% / 15.0%	5.6 / 4.4	59 / 58	54.2% / 54.5%	52.5% / 50.0%	55.8% / 29.1%	6.5 / 5.2	0.0% / 0.0%	64.4% / 34.5%	28.4 / 22.3

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2019 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	GB	3 – 10 L	-2.9	34.0% / 40.0%	10.0% / 14.3%	2.2% / 0.0%	4.2 / 4.7	40.0% / 22.7%	26.7% / 36.4%	3.1 / 2.1	65 / 57	41.7% / 39.5%	35.4% / 33.3%	38.2% / 53.1%	3.9 / 3.7	0.0% / 0.0%	23.1% / 38.6%	22.7 / 30.9
2	@DEN	16 – 14 W	2.6	40.7% / 50.0%	0.0% / 3.8%	0.0% / 2.0%	4.4 / 5.4	48.3% / 50.0%	20.7% / 25.0%	5.3 / 3.8	56 / 76	47.7% / 55.2%	44.6% / 50.0%	35.5% / 19.1%	4.9 / 4.9	0.0% / 0.0%	51.8% / 31.6%	20.5 / 24.6
3	@WAS	31 – 15 W	13.9	55.9% / 57.4%	8.8% / 8.5%	3.2% / 7.0%	6.1 / 6.1	41.7% / 57.1%	20.8% / 19.0%	3.8 / 3.3	58 / 68	46.7% / 61.8%	50.0% / 57.4%	28.5% / 25.3%	5.1 / 5.2	0.0% / 2.9%	41.4% / 30.9%	36.9 / 28.7

Minnesota Vikings @

Chicago Bears

Sun, Sep 29

1:25 PM Pacific

Game Analysis