Game Analysis
CHICAGO (-2.5) vs Minnesota
The winner of this game will take an important lead atop the NFC North and Chicago seems to have the better end of the matchups. Bryce Callahan is one of the best nickelbacks in the NFL, conceding just 0.64 yards per cover snap in the slot (3rd), and he held Adam Theilen to 95 combined yards in the two games last season. Stefon Diggs is coming back from a rib injury and is unlikely to get anything going in the vertical game running routes against Prince Amukamara, who’s caught more interceptions (2) than allowed completions (1) on 10 deep targets this season. The Bears front has a 33% pressure rate (8th) and should cause problems for a Vikings offensive line ranked 27th in pass blocking efficiency. Kirk Cousins won’t have a lot of options under heat with his two top receivers blanketed, but Minnesota’s 31st-rated ground game is also unlikely to move the ball versus Chicago’s top-ranked rush defense.
On the other side of the ball, Allen Robinson, Taylor Gabriel, and Anthony Miller all average more yards per route run in the slot than they do on the outside, which is atypical among wide receivers and a good way to attack the Vikings. Minnesota CB Mackensie Alexander surrenders 1.71 yards per cover snap in the slot, ranking 8th-worst among 42 qualifying nickelbacks, and I expect Bears’ coach Matt Nagy to feature his receivers on the inside to take advantage of Alexander. Minnesota’s defense boasts a 9.4% sack rate (2nd) and is looking particularly menacing since DE Everson Griffen returned to the lineup, but all that pressure could encourage Mitch Trubisky to scramble out of the pocket. Trubisky has added nearly double the number of points with his feet this year than any other quarterback this season so the pass rush could backfire at times.
Our model favors Chicago by 2 points but the matchups seem to be in the Bears’ favor in this crucial Sunday night tilt. I’ll pass.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
42.0
35.2
-
Succ Pass Plays
52.7%
48.2%
-
Sack Rate
6.2%
9.3%
-
Int Rate
1.6%
2.6%
-
Deep Pass Rate
13.3%
17.2%
-
Big Pass Yards
31.2%
46.9%
-
NYPP
6.8
7.0
Rush
-
Rush Plays
22.3
24.8
-
RB YPR
4.0
3.7
-
Stuff Rate
28.1%
22.2%
-
Succ Rush Plays
36.9%
46.9%
-
Big Rush Yards
48.6%
25.6%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.9
3.7
Game
-
All Snaps
64.3
60.0
-
Early Down Succ
49.5%
50.2%
-
Succ Rate
47.6%
47.4%
-
Big Yards Rate
36.8%
40.8%
-
Yards Per Play
5.8
5.6
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.4%
1.2%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.4
31.1
-
Run Ratio
35.3%
41.6%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.7
29.3
-
Game Control
0.1
-0.1
Pass
-
Pass Plays
34.1
40.3
-
Succ Pass Plays
49.0%
44.4%
-
Sack Rate
5.8%
8.2%
-
Int Rate
2.3%
4.8%
-
Deep Pass Rate
25.8%
16.4%
-
Big Pass Yards
46.5%
39.8%
-
NYPP
7.4
5.9
Rush
-
Rush Plays
29.0
23.3
-
RB YPR
3.4
3.1
-
Stuff Rate
20.4%
24.6%
-
Succ Rush Plays
48.2%
41.1%
-
Big Rush Yards
39.2%
28.5%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.1
3.5
Game
-
All Snaps
63.1
63.7
-
Early Down Succ
51.4%
45.0%
-
Succ Rate
48.3%
43.3%
-
Big Yards Rate
45.8%
37.5%
-
Yards Per Play
5.8
5.0
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.7%
1.4%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
30.0
28.2
-
Run Ratio
46.5%
36.7%
-
Starting Field Pos
31.0
27.0
-
Game Control
8.3
-8.3
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
SF |
24 – 16 W |
7.6 |
43.6% / 38.9% |
7.7% / 8.3% |
0.0% / 9.1% |
5.8 / 6.6 |
40.6% / 44.0% |
21.9% / 32.0% |
3.6 / 3.6 |
71 / 61 |
43.4% / 41.7% |
42.3% / 41.0% |
24.5% / 60.9% |
4.8 / 5.4 |
1.4% / 1.6% |
45.1% / 41.0% |
33.3 / 23.1 |
2 |
@GB |
29 – 29 T |
-6.3 |
56.0% / 48.9% |
4.0% / 8.9% |
2.1% / 0.0% |
8.2 / 5.6 |
44.4% / 54.2% |
5.6% / 25.0% |
3.8 / 4.1 |
68 / 69 |
53.7% / 55.4% |
52.9% / 50.7% |
44.4% / 31.3% |
7.1 / 5.1 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
26.5% / 34.8% |
26.5 / 29.9 |
3 |
BUF |
6 – 27 L |
-22.0 |
47.5% / 40.0% |
6.8% / 12.0% |
1.8% / 0.0% |
4.7 / 6.6 |
16.7% / 42.1% |
50.0% / 23.7% |
2.3 / 3.4 |
65 / 63 |
48.0% / 42.9% |
44.6% / 41.3% |
3.8% / 42.1% |
4.5 / 4.6 |
3.1% / 0.0% |
9.2% / 60.3% |
17.7 / 40.2 |
4 |
@LA |
31 – 38 L |
-3.9 |
51.9% / 60.0% |
7.4% / 2.9% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
7.3 / 13.0 |
35.3% / 57.1% |
35.3% / 14.3% |
3.2 / 4.8 |
71 / 56 |
45.3% / 68.1% |
47.9% / 58.9% |
38.8% / 55.7% |
6.3 / 9.9 |
1.4% / 0.0% |
23.9% / 37.5% |
27.2 / 26.6 |
5 |
@PHI |
23 – 21 W |
7.0 |
74.2% / 80.8% |
3.2% / 11.5% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
9.6 / 10.9 |
44.0% / 58.8% |
20.0% / 11.8% |
3.2 / 4.8 |
56 / 43 |
62.5% / 63.6% |
60.7% / 72.1% |
48.8% / 51.9% |
6.7 / 8.5 |
1.8% / 4.7% |
44.6% / 39.5% |
27.0 / 30.9 |
6 |
ARI |
27 – 17 W |
8.0 |
54.1% / 37.1% |
10.8% / 11.4% |
3.0% / 3.2% |
5.8 / 5.9 |
42.4% / 40.0% |
18.2% / 30.0% |
5.9 / 3.1 |
70 / 55 |
54.7% / 48.8% |
48.6% / 38.2% |
31.3% / 41.3% |
5.9 / 4.9 |
1.4% / 1.8% |
47.1% / 36.4% |
30.9 / 25.5 |
7 |
@NYJ |
37 – 17 W |
7.4 |
34.1% / 26.7% |
2.4% / 6.7% |
0.0% / 7.1% |
5.6 / 4.3 |
24.0% / 37.5% |
44.0% / 33.3% |
3.6 / 3.0 |
66 / 69 |
35.4% / 33.3% |
30.3% / 30.4% |
58.0% / 50.2% |
4.8 / 3.8 |
0.0% / 1.4% |
37.9% / 34.8% |
41.4 / 27.3 |
8 |
NO |
20 – 30 L |
-5.9 |
56.8% / 62.5% |
9.1% / 0.0% |
2.5% / 4.2% |
7.7 / 6.8 |
40.9% / 48.3% |
31.8% / 13.8% |
3.9 / 3.7 |
66 / 53 |
50.9% / 56.8% |
51.5% / 54.7% |
40.2% / 34.1% |
6.4 / 5.1 |
1.5% / 0.0% |
33.3% / 54.7% |
21.6 / 38.3 |
9 |
DET |
24 – 9 W |
8.8 |
56.5% / 39.1% |
4.3% / 21.7% |
4.5% / 0.0% |
6.7 / 3.1 |
43.5% / 40.0% |
26.1% / 16.0% |
5.6 / 2.7 |
46 / 71 |
51.4% / 41.2% |
50.0% / 39.4% |
41.0% / 0.0% |
6.2 / 3.0 |
2.2% / 1.4% |
50.0% / 35.2% |
32.6 / 21.7 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
@GB |
23 – 24 L |
9.5 |
35.9% / 43.9% |
10.3% / 9.8% |
0.0% / 2.7% |
4.0 / 7.3 |
59.3% / 27.8% |
18.5% / 16.7% |
5.1 / 3.8 |
66 / 59 |
48.9% / 40.0% |
45.5% / 39.0% |
38.1% / 59.5% |
4.5 / 6.3 |
1.5% / 1.7% |
40.9% / 30.5% |
25.7 / 30.7 |
2 |
SEA |
24 – 17 W |
7.4 |
52.8% / 43.6% |
5.6% / 15.4% |
5.9% / 3.0% |
5.1 / 5.2 |
48.3% / 45.5% |
13.8% / 13.6% |
3.0 / 3.4 |
65 / 61 |
55.1% / 44.9% |
50.8% / 44.3% |
6.3% / 23.2% |
4.2 / 4.5 |
0.0% / 1.6% |
44.6% / 36.1% |
33.6 / 24.5 |
3 |
@ARI |
16 – 14 W |
-7.2 |
42.1% / 40.0% |
7.9% / 13.3% |
2.9% / 11.5% |
5.1 / 5.6 |
54.8% / 33.3% |
22.6% / 27.8% |
3.9 / 2.9 |
69 / 48 |
50.0% / 40.5% |
47.8% / 37.5% |
37.7% / 58.8% |
4.6 / 4.6 |
1.4% / 2.1% |
44.9% / 37.5% |
27.8 / 32.8 |
4 |
TB |
48 – 10 W |
27.7 |
66.7% / 45.2% |
3.7% / 9.5% |
0.0% / 7.9% |
12.7 / 6.0 |
51.5% / 38.9% |
27.3% / 22.2% |
4.3 / 3.3 |
60 / 60 |
64.6% / 45.7% |
58.3% / 43.3% |
72.6% / 32.8% |
8.1 / 5.2 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
55.0% / 30.0% |
27.5 / 23.8 |
6 |
@MIA |
28 – 31 L |
-0.3 |
54.5% / 48.8% |
6.1% / 0.0% |
3.2% / 4.7% |
9.2 / 8.8 |
43.8% / 58.1% |
9.4% / 9.7% |
5.2 / 5.2 |
65 / 74 |
48.0% / 53.4% |
49.2% / 52.7% |
60.7% / 48.2% |
7.2 / 7.3 |
3.1% / 1.4% |
49.2% / 41.9% |
25.3 / 28.7 |
7 |
NE |
31 – 38 L |
-3.8 |
43.1% / 62.2% |
3.9% / 2.7% |
4.1% / 2.8% |
6.3 / 7.4 |
52.0% / 63.0% |
12.0% / 22.2% |
5.4 / 4.0 |
76 / 64 |
44.1% / 66.0% |
46.1% / 62.5% |
44.6% / 29.7% |
6.0 / 6.0 |
0.0% / 3.1% |
32.9% / 42.2% |
32.9 / 25.6 |
8 |
NYJ |
24 – 10 W |
6.9 |
45.2% / 36.7% |
6.5% / 3.3% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
7.0 / 5.0 |
52.9% / 20.8% |
14.7% / 37.5% |
5.3 / 2.4 |
65 / 54 |
51.9% / 30.8% |
49.2% / 29.6% |
46.3% / 20.3% |
6.1 / 3.8 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
52.3% / 44.4% |
28.5 / 22.0 |
9 |
@BUF |
41 – 9 W |
18.7 |
42.9% / 35.8% |
4.8% / 7.5% |
5.0% / 6.1% |
6.0 / 3.2 |
39.3% / 28.6% |
28.6% / 42.9% |
2.4 / 3.5 |
49 / 81 |
51.5% / 33.3% |
40.8% / 33.3% |
39.4% / 39.4% |
3.9 / 3.3 |
0.0% / 1.2% |
57.1% / 34.6% |
43.9 / 25.9 |
10 |
DET |
34 – 22 W |
15.7 |
58.1% / 43.8% |
3.2% / 12.5% |
0.0% / 4.8% |
11.2 / 4.8 |
31.8% / 54.2% |
36.4% / 29.2% |
2.5 / 3.2 |
53 / 72 |
48.8% / 50.0% |
47.2% / 47.2% |
66.7% / 25.9% |
7.6 / 4.2 |
0.0% / 1.4% |
41.5% / 33.3% |
33.4 / 28.8 |