Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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CHICAGO (-2.5) vs Minnesota

The winner of this game will take an important lead atop the NFC North and Chicago seems to have the better end of the matchups. Bryce Callahan is one of the best nickelbacks in the NFL, conceding just 0.64 yards per cover snap in the slot (3rd), and he held Adam Theilen to 95 combined yards in the two games last season. Stefon Diggs is coming back from a rib injury and is unlikely to get anything going in the vertical game running routes against Prince Amukamara, who’s caught more interceptions (2) than allowed completions (1) on 10 deep targets this season. The Bears front has a 33% pressure rate (8th) and should cause problems for a Vikings offensive line ranked 27th in pass blocking efficiency. Kirk Cousins won’t have a lot of options under heat with his two top receivers blanketed, but Minnesota’s 31st-rated ground game is also unlikely to move the ball versus Chicago’s top-ranked rush defense.

On the other side of the ball, Allen Robinson, Taylor Gabriel, and Anthony Miller all average more yards per route run in the slot than they do on the outside, which is atypical among wide receivers and a good way to attack the Vikings. Minnesota CB Mackensie Alexander surrenders 1.71 yards per cover snap in the slot, ranking 8th-worst among 42 qualifying nickelbacks, and I expect Bears’ coach Matt Nagy to feature his receivers on the inside to take advantage of Alexander. Minnesota’s defense boasts a 9.4% sack rate (2nd) and is looking particularly menacing since DE Everson Griffen returned to the lineup, but all that pressure could encourage Mitch Trubisky to scramble out of the pocket. Trubisky has added nearly double the number of points with his feet this year than any other quarterback this season so the pass rush could backfire at times.

Our model favors Chicago by 2 points but the matchups seem to be in the Bears’ favor in this crucial Sunday night tilt. I’ll pass.

Team Stats
Game Log

Vikings
Bears

MIN

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 42.0 35.2
Succ Pass Plays 52.7% 48.2%
Sack Rate 6.2% 9.3%
Int Rate 1.6% 2.6%
Deep Pass Rate 13.3% 17.2%
Big Pass Yards 31.2% 46.9%
NYPP 6.8 7.0

Rush

Rush Plays 22.3 24.8
RB YPR 4.0 3.7
Stuff Rate 28.1% 22.2%
Succ Rush Plays 36.9% 46.9%
Big Rush Yards 48.6% 25.6%
Yards Per Rush 3.9 3.7

Game

All Snaps 64.3 60.0
Early Down Succ 49.5% 50.2%
Succ Rate 47.6% 47.4%
Big Yards Rate 36.8% 40.8%
Yards Per Play 5.8 5.6
Fumble Lost Rate 1.4% 1.2%
Time Per Play (sec) 28.4 31.1
Run Ratio 35.3% 41.6%
Starting Field Pos 28.7 29.3
Game Control 0.1 -0.1

Points 24.6 22.7

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2018 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	SF	24 – 16 W	7.6	43.6% / 38.9%	7.7% / 8.3%	0.0% / 9.1%	5.8 / 6.6	40.6% / 44.0%	21.9% / 32.0%	3.6 / 3.6	71 / 61	43.4% / 41.7%	42.3% / 41.0%	24.5% / 60.9%	4.8 / 5.4	1.4% / 1.6%	45.1% / 41.0%	33.3 / 23.1
2	@GB	29 – 29 T	-6.3	56.0% / 48.9%	4.0% / 8.9%	2.1% / 0.0%	8.2 / 5.6	44.4% / 54.2%	5.6% / 25.0%	3.8 / 4.1	68 / 69	53.7% / 55.4%	52.9% / 50.7%	44.4% / 31.3%	7.1 / 5.1	0.0% / 0.0%	26.5% / 34.8%	26.5 / 29.9
3	BUF	6 – 27 L	-22.0	47.5% / 40.0%	6.8% / 12.0%	1.8% / 0.0%	4.7 / 6.6	16.7% / 42.1%	50.0% / 23.7%	2.3 / 3.4	65 / 63	48.0% / 42.9%	44.6% / 41.3%	3.8% / 42.1%	4.5 / 4.6	3.1% / 0.0%	9.2% / 60.3%	17.7 / 40.2
4	@LA	31 – 38 L	-3.9	51.9% / 60.0%	7.4% / 2.9%	0.0% / 0.0%	7.3 / 13.0	35.3% / 57.1%	35.3% / 14.3%	3.2 / 4.8	71 / 56	45.3% / 68.1%	47.9% / 58.9%	38.8% / 55.7%	6.3 / 9.9	1.4% / 0.0%	23.9% / 37.5%	27.2 / 26.6
5	@PHI	23 – 21 W	7.0	74.2% / 80.8%	3.2% / 11.5%	0.0% / 0.0%	9.6 / 10.9	44.0% / 58.8%	20.0% / 11.8%	3.2 / 4.8	56 / 43	62.5% / 63.6%	60.7% / 72.1%	48.8% / 51.9%	6.7 / 8.5	1.8% / 4.7%	44.6% / 39.5%	27.0 / 30.9
6	ARI	27 – 17 W	8.0	54.1% / 37.1%	10.8% / 11.4%	3.0% / 3.2%	5.8 / 5.9	42.4% / 40.0%	18.2% / 30.0%	5.9 / 3.1	70 / 55	54.7% / 48.8%	48.6% / 38.2%	31.3% / 41.3%	5.9 / 4.9	1.4% / 1.8%	47.1% / 36.4%	30.9 / 25.5
7	@NYJ	37 – 17 W	7.4	34.1% / 26.7%	2.4% / 6.7%	0.0% / 7.1%	5.6 / 4.3	24.0% / 37.5%	44.0% / 33.3%	3.6 / 3.0	66 / 69	35.4% / 33.3%	30.3% / 30.4%	58.0% / 50.2%	4.8 / 3.8	0.0% / 1.4%	37.9% / 34.8%	41.4 / 27.3
8	NO	20 – 30 L	-5.9	56.8% / 62.5%	9.1% / 0.0%	2.5% / 4.2%	7.7 / 6.8	40.9% / 48.3%	31.8% / 13.8%	3.9 / 3.7	66 / 53	50.9% / 56.8%	51.5% / 54.7%	40.2% / 34.1%	6.4 / 5.1	1.5% / 0.0%	33.3% / 54.7%	21.6 / 38.3
9	DET	24 – 9 W	8.8	56.5% / 39.1%	4.3% / 21.7%	4.5% / 0.0%	6.7 / 3.1	43.5% / 40.0%	26.1% / 16.0%	5.6 / 2.7	46 / 71	51.4% / 41.2%	50.0% / 39.4%	41.0% / 0.0%	6.2 / 3.0	2.2% / 1.4%	50.0% / 35.2%	32.6 / 21.7

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2018 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@GB	23 – 24 L	9.5	35.9% / 43.9%	10.3% / 9.8%	0.0% / 2.7%	4.0 / 7.3	59.3% / 27.8%	18.5% / 16.7%	5.1 / 3.8	66 / 59	48.9% / 40.0%	45.5% / 39.0%	38.1% / 59.5%	4.5 / 6.3	1.5% / 1.7%	40.9% / 30.5%	25.7 / 30.7
2	SEA	24 – 17 W	7.4	52.8% / 43.6%	5.6% / 15.4%	5.9% / 3.0%	5.1 / 5.2	48.3% / 45.5%	13.8% / 13.6%	3.0 / 3.4	65 / 61	55.1% / 44.9%	50.8% / 44.3%	6.3% / 23.2%	4.2 / 4.5	0.0% / 1.6%	44.6% / 36.1%	33.6 / 24.5
3	@ARI	16 – 14 W	-7.2	42.1% / 40.0%	7.9% / 13.3%	2.9% / 11.5%	5.1 / 5.6	54.8% / 33.3%	22.6% / 27.8%	3.9 / 2.9	69 / 48	50.0% / 40.5%	47.8% / 37.5%	37.7% / 58.8%	4.6 / 4.6	1.4% / 2.1%	44.9% / 37.5%	27.8 / 32.8
4	TB	48 – 10 W	27.7	66.7% / 45.2%	3.7% / 9.5%	0.0% / 7.9%	12.7 / 6.0	51.5% / 38.9%	27.3% / 22.2%	4.3 / 3.3	60 / 60	64.6% / 45.7%	58.3% / 43.3%	72.6% / 32.8%	8.1 / 5.2	0.0% / 0.0%	55.0% / 30.0%	27.5 / 23.8
6	@MIA	28 – 31 L	-0.3	54.5% / 48.8%	6.1% / 0.0%	3.2% / 4.7%	9.2 / 8.8	43.8% / 58.1%	9.4% / 9.7%	5.2 / 5.2	65 / 74	48.0% / 53.4%	49.2% / 52.7%	60.7% / 48.2%	7.2 / 7.3	3.1% / 1.4%	49.2% / 41.9%	25.3 / 28.7
7	NE	31 – 38 L	-3.8	43.1% / 62.2%	3.9% / 2.7%	4.1% / 2.8%	6.3 / 7.4	52.0% / 63.0%	12.0% / 22.2%	5.4 / 4.0	76 / 64	44.1% / 66.0%	46.1% / 62.5%	44.6% / 29.7%	6.0 / 6.0	0.0% / 3.1%	32.9% / 42.2%	32.9 / 25.6
8	NYJ	24 – 10 W	6.9	45.2% / 36.7%	6.5% / 3.3%	0.0% / 0.0%	7.0 / 5.0	52.9% / 20.8%	14.7% / 37.5%	5.3 / 2.4	65 / 54	51.9% / 30.8%	49.2% / 29.6%	46.3% / 20.3%	6.1 / 3.8	0.0% / 0.0%	52.3% / 44.4%	28.5 / 22.0
9	@BUF	41 – 9 W	18.7	42.9% / 35.8%	4.8% / 7.5%	5.0% / 6.1%	6.0 / 3.2	39.3% / 28.6%	28.6% / 42.9%	2.4 / 3.5	49 / 81	51.5% / 33.3%	40.8% / 33.3%	39.4% / 39.4%	3.9 / 3.3	0.0% / 1.2%	57.1% / 34.6%	43.9 / 25.9
10	DET	34 – 22 W	15.7	58.1% / 43.8%	3.2% / 12.5%	0.0% / 4.8%	11.2 / 4.8	31.8% / 54.2%	36.4% / 29.2%	2.5 / 3.2	53 / 72	48.8% / 50.0%	47.2% / 47.2%	66.7% / 25.9%	7.6 / 4.2	0.0% / 1.4%	41.5% / 33.3%	33.4 / 28.8

Minnesota Vikings @

Chicago Bears

Sun, Nov 18

10:00 AM Pacific

Game Analysis