Game Analysis
Strong Opinion – CHICAGO (+3.5) over Minnesota
Lean – Over (40.5)
It looks like Sam Bradford will return for this game and my metrics show he’s worth about 1.5 points more than Case Keenum. The Vikings have been a good passing team this season regardless of which quarterback has been under center, ranking 8th in my numbers, but the Vikings will be without Dalvin Cook for the rest of the year, which is a blow. Cook is averaging more than 2 yards per carry more than any other Vikings running back, as Latavius Murray and Jerick McKinnon have averaged just 2.7 ypr and 2.6 ypr, respectively, while Cook has averaged an impressive 4.8 ypr despite not having any really big runs (33 yards is his long). Minnesota was the worst rushing team in the league last season without Cook (their two main running backs combined for just 3.4 ypr) and the adjustment for Cook being out, assuming that they run at the level they did last season, is a bit more than the positive adjustment for Bradford being back behind center. Chicago defends the run really well (3.5 ypr allowed) and I expect Minnesota to throw the ball more often in this game with Cook out, which should help the offense overcome the absence of their star rookie running back.
The Bears’ loss to the Packers wasn’t nearly as bad as the 14-35 final score indicates. Chicago actually outgained the Packers 308 yards to 260 yards and averaged 4.8 yards per play to 4.9 yppl for the Pack. It was a -4 in turnovers that led to Chicago’s demise and perhaps has given us some value on the Bears. Mike Glennon has been benched in favor of rookie first round draft pick Mitch Trubisky, who will get his first NFL start tonight. I expect Trubisky to be about the same as Glennon from a yards per pass play perspective and he’ll be an improvement if he can avoid the turnovers that have plagued Glennon (7 turnover 4 games). Chicago will look to help their rookie quarterback with the 2nd best rushing attack in the league, but the Bears aren’t likely to have as much success on the ground as usual against a Minnesota rush defense ranked 5th in my numbers. But, if the ground game is not working as well, Trubisky should have success in an offense filled with short pass plays, as he was very accurate in college and he’ll be facing a Minnesota defense that’s allowed 68% completions so far this season.
Chicago is a lot better than they appear to be, as the Bears have outgained their opponents from the line of scrimmage and have only a small disadvantage in yards per play (5.2 yppl to 5.5 yppl allowed) despite facing a tough schedule of teams (Atlanta, TB, Pittsburgh and Green Bay). The issue with the Bears has been a -7 in turnovers, which is highly random and is not likely to continue, and I think there is some value playing a Chicago team that isn’t as bad as their scores would indicate.
Minnesota still rates as a better team but I don’t think the Vikings should be favored by more than a field goal here. In fact, using this year’s stats only, adjusted for opposition and turnover variance, would favor the Bears by ½ a point at home and I’ll consider Chicago a Strong Opinion in this game. I’ll also lean Over 40.5 in this one because I think both teams will have to pass more often than they normally do.
Football Best Bets 29-16 This Season
I had my first losing week of the season, as my Football Best Bets were just 3-4 in college (and lost my two higher-rated plays) and 1-1 in the NFL.
I am now 29-16 on my Football Best Bets this season (23-11 on College Best Bets, 1-0 on college season win totals, and 5-5 on NFL Best Bets) after going 148-107 (58%) on Football Best Bets in 2016.
My College Football has been profitable for years (55% winners since 1999 for +232.6 Stars of profit) and the NFL Best Bets are now 105-74 (59%) using the new NFL play-by-play model introduced last season, including 70-30 (70%) on sides.
In addition to weekly passes to College and NFL Best Bets I also have 4-Week and full season subscription packages available and you can view all Best Bet subscription packages on my Best Bets page.
- Team Stats
- Game Log
- Vikings
- Bears
Pass
- Pass Plays 34.5 38.5
- Succ Pass Plays 50.1% 49.7%
- Sack Rate 3.6% 7.3%
- Int Rate 0.0% 1.9%
- Deep Pass Rate 29.2% 17.0%
- Big Pass Yards 55.5% 30.9%
- NYPP 7.8 6.4
Rush
- Rush Plays 28.8 24.5
- RB YPR 3.8 2.9
- Stuff Rate 20.0% 18.8%
- Succ Rush Plays 44.6% 36.6%
- Big Rush Yards 38.0% 12.9%
- Yards Per Rush 3.9 2.9
Game
- All Snaps 63.3 63.0
- Early Down Succ 49.0% 50.9%
- Succ Rate 45.8% 45.4%
- Big Yards Rate 50.2% 28.0%
- Yards Per Play 5.8 5.2
- Fumble Lost Rate 1.8% 0.0%
- Time Per Play (sec) 27.9 28.7
- Run Ratio 44.7% 37.3%
- Starting Field Pos 25.3 27.3
- Game Control 1.9 -1.9
- Points 19.8 19.0