Game Analysis

Note: Pittsburgh was released as a Best Bet early in the week before TJ Watt suffered a lung injury that put him in the hospital on Wednesday and will keep him out of the this game. The line has moved down to -3 -115 and the Steelers would still be worthy of a 1-Star Best Bet at -3 -120 or better.

1-Star Best Bet – *PITTSBURGH (-3.5 EV) over Miami

• The Steelers opened up the offense last week with Aaron Rodgers completing 3 deep passes for 121 yards in Baltimore. Rodgers had only 7 completions with 20+ air yards before week 14.
• Rodgers excelled against the blitz, averaging 9.9 yards per attempt with a fast 2.32-second time to throw in the win over the Ravens, and he will need to continue getting the ball out quickly as the Dolphins have a 42% blitz rate (3rd-highest).
• Pittsburgh RB Kenneth Gainwell is averaging 1.32 yards per route run (4th), and he has a favorable matchup on screens versus Miami’s defense surrendering 0.32 EPA/target to opposing running backs (30th).
• Tua Tagovailoa will struggle in this matchup against a Steelers defense with a 39% blitz rate (7th-highest) that ranks 3rd relatively against play action compared to standard dropbacks. Tagovailoa ranks 26th against the blitz compared to a standard pass rush, and the Dolphins have a 29% play-action rate (5th-highest).
• Miami’s offense profiles most similarly to Indianapolis with Daniel Jones, who averaged a season-low 5.7 yppp against Pittsburgh’s defense.
• Steelers’ interior defender Cameron Heyward has 37 pressures (13th), and he will wreak havoc across from rookie LG Jonah Savaiinaea, who ranks 57th in pass blocking efficiency out of 59 qualifying guards.
• Tagovailoa won the first game of his career in a game with the temperature under 45 degrees last week (and we had them as a Best Bet). Tagovailoa was previously 0-6 in starts under 45 degrees. Last week’s game in East Rutherford was not that chilly at 37 degrees, but I believe we’ll see Tagovailoa’s historic struggles in the cold on Monday night with Pittsburgh temperatures in the teens.
• Miami is at their best against lesser teams, but they’ve struggled against mediocre or good teams – particularly after a victory. The Dolphins are just 4-16 ATS  against teams that are .500 or better when not getting at least 6 points under coach Mike McDaniel and they 3-11 ATS under McDaniel as an underdog after a win.
• TJ Watt is expected to miss week 15 due to a surprise problem with his lung. The market has moved down to -3 -115 and I would play a 1-Star at that number due to Pittsburgh’s matchup advantages plus the bad situations on Miami
• Our model favors the Steelers by 3.8 points, with a predicted total of 44.8 points, and in addition to the Miami team trends, the Steelers apply to a 35-5-1 ATS Monday night home team angle.

Pittsburgh is a 1-Star Best Bet at -3 -120 or better.