Game Analysis

PHILADELPHIA (-3) vs Miami

· Miami’s offense is averaging 37.2 points per game and 8.0 yards per play through six weeks, the highest we’ve seen in a decade. To put it in perspective, San Francisco’s offense is 2nd in both categories at 6.5 fewer points per game and 2 fewer yards per play.

· The Dolphins trailed 14-0 last week but the offense comfortably dug them out of the hole and they went on to beat the Panthers soundly by three touchdowns.

· Tyreek Hill caught 4 of 5 deep targets for 139 yards versus Carolina and he is on pace for 2,306 yards over the full season. The Eagles should have Pro Bowl cornerback Darius Slay back on this field this week, but Miami head coach Mike McDaniel might move Hill away from Slay.

· Philadelphia’s nickelback to start the season Avonte Maddox tore his pec, then they signed Bradley Roby to fill the role, but he is dealing with a pectoral strain. The Eagles signed another nickelback Josiah Scott, who surrendered 1.73 yards per slot cover snap in 2022 (3rd-worst). Hill has only gotten 28.6% of his targets when lined up on the inside this season, but last year he had 66 targets in the slot (5th-most) and McDaniel will want to put him in a favorable matchup across from Scott or whoever the Philadelphia’s defense starts at nickelback.

· Tua Tagovailoa leads the NFL with 11.1 yards per attempt on throws over the middle of the field and he will attack between the numbers on Sunday night. Eagles starting S Reed Blankenship was injured on a hit during the third quarter last week and is likely out for this game. Philadelphia’s defense was already without safety Justin Evans so they might have to throw into the fire third-round rookie Sydney Brown, who hasn’t been active since week 3.

· Eagles CB James Bradberry is allowing 0.80 yards per cover snap (10th) and he will limit WR Jaylen Waddle.

· Philadelphia DT Jalen Carter leads all interior defenders in pass-rushing efficiency, and he should suit up this week after missing the last game. Dolphins LG Isaiah Wynn is conceding a league-low 0.5 pressures per game, but Carter could wreak havoc against backup C Liam Eichenberg.

· Miami starting center Connor Williams is out with a lingering groin injury and he allowed just a 1.6% pressure rate compared to Eichenberg surrendering a 6.0% pressure rate. Eichenberg also ranked 8th-worst in pass-blocking efficiency last year.

· Dolphins RB Raheem Mostert is averaging 1.23 yards per route run (8th) but Tagovailoa will not have simple check-downs if the pocket collapses as the Eagles are conceding a 33% pass success rate to running backs (3rd).

· Philadelphia RT Lane Johnson is one of 7 qualifying tackles to have not conceded a sack this year but suffered a high ankle sprain against the Jets and the Eagles allowed 22 pressures, the highest they surrendered since the start of last season.

· It looks like Johnson will be out for this game leaving backup Jack Driscoll to line up across from Miami edge rusher Jaelan Phillips, who returned to the lineup last week after missing the previous two games due to an oblique injury. Phillips has a 13.3% pressure rate this year and Driscoll will also get snaps against Dolphins’ edge defender Andrew Van Ginkel, who ranks 7th in pass-rushing efficiency.

· Philadelphia backup RG Sua Opeta has surrendered 7 pressures in the last three games (11th-most) since taking over for starter Cam Jurgens and Opeta will struggle versus interior defender Christian Wilkins, who ranks 10th in pass-rushing efficiency.

· Miami starting cornerback Xavien Howard is likely out, which leaves backup Justin Bethel to line up across from wide receiver AJ Brown, who is 0.64 EPA/target (10th).

· Eagles WR DeVonta Smith has a 13.4-yard average depth of target (16th) but he is dealing with a hamstring issue which could affect him in this game.

· Jalen Hurts will need to use his legs to lead the best ground game in the NFL by our metrics because the Dolphins rank 25th in EPA/rush allowed.

· Our model makes Philadelphia a 1.3-point favorite with a predicted total of 49.0 points, but Miami applies to a 27-69-2 ATS situation while the Eagles apply to a 66-26-3 ATS bounce-back situation that plays on teams coming off a loss as a big road favorite the previous week. I used Philly in my spread pool.