Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – *Under (41) – Miami (-9.5) vs NY JETS

· The Jets benched Zach Wilson and are starting Tim Boyle this week. The spread in this game moved 2.5 points on the news but oddly the total didn’t move.

· Tim Boyle has the worst college credentials of any NFL quarterback I’ve ever seen. In 3 seasons at Connecticut he could never hold the starting job and completed just 48% of his passes for 4.5 yards per attempt and a 4.7% interception range. Boyle moved on to play at Eastern Kentucky in 2017 and led his team to a glorious 4-7 record while averaging just 6.2 yards per pass play against horrible competition – teams that would allow 7.8 yppp to an average FBS level quarterback.

· I am confident that Boyle will be even worse than Wilson was, but we are not making an adjustment to New York’s offense because this is a coach’s decision, and the policy is to trust the coaching staff in situations like this. We would’ve bet under with Zach Wilson under center, but I think the Jets’ offense could be even worse.

· Wilson is averaging 4.9 yppp for his career compared to Boyle’s 4.8 yppp since taking his first snaps in 2019.

· Jets tackle Mekhi Becton is likely out with an ankle sprain. LG Laken Tomlinson is the only remaining starter on New York’s offensive line from week 1 and he ranks 45th in pass-blocking efficiency out of 46 qualifying guards. Jets backup rookie tackle Carter Warren surrendered 5 pressures last week (3rd-most) filling in for Becton.

· Boyle will not have many clean pockets on Friday behind this offensive line as Miami’s defense has a 39.7% pressure rate (6th).

· The Dolphins are allowing -0.12 EPA/dropback with Pro Bowl CB Jalen Ramsey on the field since week 9 (7th) and defensive coordinator Vic Fangio’s increased confidence in his secondary has made the run defense better as well. Miami’s defense has conceded a 30.6% rush success rate in the last three games (3rd) and New York’s offense will be completely out of options in this game.

· Jets RB Breece Hall 0.32 EPA/target (5th) but he will be limited as the Dolphins are allowing just a 33% pass success rate to running backs (3rd).

· Miami’s offense will have similar challenges as New York this week with a backup on the offensive line and no options in the screen game to slow down the pass rush. The Dolphins are targeting running backs on 23.1% of passes (6th-most) but the Jets are conceding a 36% pass success rate to running backs (7th).

· Miami starting guard Isaiah Wynn ranked 2nd in pass-blocking efficiency before going out in week 7 with a quad injury and he is worth a half point by our metrics. New York interior defenders Quinnen Williams and Quinton Jefferson have combined for 60 pressures and Tua Tagovailoa will not have many clean pockets to throw from.

· Miami WR Tyreek Hill is averaging 0.57 EPA/target (3rd) and WR Jaylen Waddle has a 58% success rate (16th) but the pair will be limited against the Jets secondary. Cornerback DJ Reed is conceding 0.58 yards per cover snap (6th) and cornerback Sauce Gardner is allowing 0.60 yards per cover snap (8th).

· Our model favors the Dolphins by 9.7 points, with a predicted total of 38.6 points.

The Under is a 1-Star Best Bet at 41 -120 odds or better (Strong Opinion Under 40.5).