Game Analysis
Ryan Tannehill has been ruled out until the playoffs and the (8-5) Dolphins playoff hopes take a dive with it.  Tannehill was having his best statistical season under new HC Adam Gase.  He was averaging 6.7 NYPP while completing 67% of his passes.  In steps 32-year-old journeyman Matt Moore who has started 25 games in his career as he makes his first start in 5 years.  Moore is a 2.0 – 2.5 point drop off from Tanny, as he is not quite the runner or passer Tannehill has been this season.  The biggest strength of the Dolphins all season has been the rushing attack and that happens to also be the strength of the Jets defensive unit, who rank 2nd in rushing success rate allowed and #1 in run stuffing plays.  While Matt Forte is questionable with a torn meniscus in his knee, backup Bilal Powell has been the more dynamic back all year, averaging 5.8 yards per rush to Forte’s 3.7 YPC.  Look for the Jets to run the ball regardless who is behind young Bryce Petty, as the Dolphins have given up 4.8 yards per rush this season.  The advanced stats model sees value on the home dog for the Saturday game, so Jets (+2.5) is a Strong Opinion.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
32.4
38.5
-
Succ Pass Plays
45.6%
43.3%
-
Sack Rate
7.1%
5.7%
-
Int Rate
3.0%
2.6%
-
Deep Pass Rate
16.5%
15.9%
-
Big Pass Yards
46.1%
32.9%
-
NYPP
6.8
6.0
Rush
-
Rush Plays
24.7
29.1
-
RB YPR
4.1
4.5
-
Stuff Rate
28.3%
22.1%
-
Succ Rush Plays
39.9%
42.9%
-
Big Rush Yards
50.1%
49.6%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.3
4.8
Game
-
All Snaps
57.1
67.5
-
Early Down Succ
46.2%
47.0%
-
Succ Rate
43.1%
43.2%
-
Big Yards Rate
49.7%
40.4%
-
Yards Per Play
5.7
5.4
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.0%
0.9%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
30.3
28.2
-
Run Ratio
42.6%
42.7%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.8
28.2
-
Game Control
-3.0
3.0
Pass
-
Pass Plays
36.9
37.4
-
Succ Pass Plays
41.8%
49.2%
-
Sack Rate
6.2%
4.6%
-
Int Rate
3.8%
1.2%
-
Deep Pass Rate
22.0%
16.0%
-
Big Pass Yards
40.6%
41.2%
-
NYPP
6.1
6.8
Rush
-
Rush Plays
26.2
27.3
-
RB YPR
4.1
3.7
-
Stuff Rate
20.2%
31.3%
-
Succ Rush Plays
44.9%
35.8%
-
Big Rush Yards
33.7%
50.2%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.2
3.7
Game
-
All Snaps
63.1
64.7
-
Early Down Succ
45.4%
47.8%
-
Succ Rate
43.3%
43.4%
-
Big Yards Rate
39.8%
47.1%
-
Yards Per Play
5.3
5.6
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.8%
0.5%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
29.2
27.4
-
Run Ratio
40.6%
41.9%
-
Starting Field Pos
25.2
29.6
-
Game Control
-4.9
4.9
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2016 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@SEA |
10 – 12 L |
-1.6 |
21.2% /
50.0% |
12.1% /
6.5% |
0.0% /
2.3% |
4.8 /
5.2 |
35.0% /
50.0% |
30.0% /
21.9% |
3.2 /
3.5 |
53 /
78 |
28.2% /
54.2% |
26.4% /
50.0% |
53.2% /
19.6% |
4.2 /
4.5 |
0.0% /
1.3% |
37.7% /
41.0% |
32.1 /
22.5 |
| 2 |
@NE |
24 – 31 L |
-16.3 |
65.9% /
55.3% |
0.0% /
5.3% |
4.5% /
0.0% |
8.8 /
8.0 |
50.0% /
41.0% |
18.8% /
20.5% |
4.4 /
4.2 |
60 /
77 |
65.3% /
47.5% |
61.7% /
48.1% |
41.2% /
38.8% |
7.7 /
6.1 |
3.3% /
1.3% |
26.7% /
50.6% |
22.7 /
31.4 |
| 3 |
CLE |
30 – 24 W |
2.6 |
53.8% /
40.5% |
2.6% /
9.5% |
5.3% /
0.0% |
8.0 /
6.2 |
56.0% /
51.5% |
12.0% /
24.2% |
4.6 /
5.2 |
64 /
75 |
61.1% /
51.7% |
54.7% /
45.3% |
47.2% /
58.7% |
6.7 /
5.7 |
1.6% /
1.3% |
39.1% /
44.0% |
28.7 /
26.8 |
| 4 |
@CIN |
7 – 22 L |
-7.4 |
26.7% /
46.9% |
16.7% /
3.1% |
4.0% /
0.0% |
5.3 /
8.9 |
30.8% /
24.4% |
7.7% /
31.7% |
4.8 /
2.0 |
43 /
73 |
32.3% /
42.0% |
27.9% /
34.2% |
59.5% /
42.9% |
5.2 /
5.0 |
2.3% /
0.0% |
30.2% /
56.2% |
22.7 /
30.8 |
| 5 |
TEN |
17 – 30 L |
-5.7 |
37.5% /
37.9% |
25.0% /
0.0% |
11.1% /
0.0% |
6.2 /
5.6 |
47.1% /
59.1% |
11.8% /
18.2% |
3.0 /
5.4 |
41 /
73 |
43.3% /
58.2% |
41.5% /
50.7% |
64.0% /
42.5% |
4.9 /
5.5 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
41.5% /
60.3% |
21.2 /
34.9 |
| 6 |
PIT |
30 – 15 W |
5.2 |
56.3% /
40.5% |
0.0% /
5.4% |
0.0% /
5.7% |
7.9 /
4.6 |
51.4% /
41.2% |
24.3% /
5.9% |
6.0 /
7.6 |
69 /
54 |
56.6% /
47.5% |
53.6% /
40.7% |
60.6% /
36.2% |
6.9 /
5.5 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
53.6% /
31.5% |
37.0 /
23.4 |
| 7 |
BUF |
28 – 25 W |
-2.6 |
42.3% /
37.5% |
3.8% /
12.5% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
7.6 /
6.3 |
47.6% /
36.4% |
21.4% /
22.7% |
6.1 /
3.0 |
68 /
54 |
48.1% /
41.5% |
45.6% /
37.0% |
63.7% /
45.7% |
6.7 /
4.9 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
61.8% /
40.7% |
25.6 /
31.7 |
| 9 |
NYJ |
27 – 23 W |
2.0 |
50.0% /
42.4% |
3.3% /
9.1% |
0.0% /
6.7% |
4.6 /
5.8 |
36.4% /
47.6% |
39.4% /
23.8% |
4.2 /
6.7 |
63 /
54 |
44.9% /
48.8% |
42.9% /
44.4% |
46.2% /
51.2% |
4.4 /
6.1 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
52.4% /
38.9% |
34.7 /
27.5 |
| 10 |
@SD |
31 – 24 W |
-0.3 |
56.0% /
44.7% |
4.0% /
6.4% |
0.0% /
9.1% |
9.2 /
6.6 |
26.9% /
20.8% |
26.9% /
41.7% |
4.1 /
2.9 |
51 /
71 |
43.6% /
33.3% |
41.2% /
36.6% |
58.9% /
44.1% |
6.6 /
5.3 |
2.0% /
0.0% |
51.0% /
33.8% |
25.6 /
28.8 |
| 11 |
@LA |
14 – 10 W |
-6.9 |
44.7% /
28.1% |
10.5% /
3.1% |
2.9% /
0.0% |
3.7 /
3.9 |
36.8% /
27.6% |
42.1% /
34.5% |
5.2 /
3.6 |
57 /
61 |
50.0% /
31.8% |
42.1% /
27.9% |
23.8% /
36.4% |
4.2 /
3.7 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
33.3% /
47.5% |
23.1 /
29.1 |
| 12 |
SF |
31 – 24 W |
3.5 |
50.0% /
42.6% |
6.3% /
4.3% |
0.0% /
2.2% |
8.2 /
6.0 |
34.6% /
56.0% |
34.6% /
20.0% |
3.7 /
7.7 |
58 /
72 |
41.3% /
44.6% |
43.1% /
47.2% |
46.6% /
38.1% |
6.2 /
6.6 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
44.8% /
34.7% |
31.6 /
23.8 |
| 13 |
@BAL |
6 – 38 L |
-18.6 |
42.9% /
57.1% |
4.8% /
0.0% |
7.5% /
2.0% |
5.1 /
7.9 |
31.3% /
52.2% |
50.0% /
4.3% |
3.9 /
4.9 |
58 /
72 |
42.2% /
61.1% |
39.7% /
55.6% |
32.9% /
36.1% |
4.8 /
6.9 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
27.6% /
31.9% |
30.8 /
28.7 |
| 14 |
ARI |
26 – 23 W |
7.1 |
46.2% /
38.9% |
3.8% /
8.3% |
4.0% /
6.1% |
8.9 /
3.5 |
35.5% /
50.0% |
48.4% /
17.9% |
2.7 /
6.3 |
57 /
64 |
43.2% /
49.0% |
40.4% /
43.8% |
48.7% /
35.2% |
5.5 /
4.7 |
3.5% /
3.1% |
54.4% /
43.8% |
38.9 /
27.4 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2016 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
CIN |
22 – 23 L |
1.8 |
36.1% /
48.6% |
2.8% /
18.9% |
2.9% /
3.3% |
5.2 /
8.8 |
56.7% /
42.1% |
16.7% /
26.3% |
5.1 /
3.1 |
66 /
56 |
48.1% /
52.3% |
45.5% /
46.4% |
40.6% /
68.6% |
5.2 /
6.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
45.5% /
33.9% |
33.5 /
26.2 |
| 2 |
@BUF |
37 – 31 W |
2.8 |
57.1% /
53.3% |
2.9% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
3.3% |
10.6 /
10.2 |
45.9% /
47.4% |
16.2% /
42.1% |
3.4 /
4.5 |
72 /
49 |
50.9% /
56.8% |
51.4% /
51.0% |
54.5% /
54.5% |
6.9 /
8.0 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
51.4% /
38.8% |
24.6 /
26.1 |
| 3 |
@KC |
3 – 24 L |
-10.3 |
34.1% /
48.6% |
0.0% /
5.7% |
13.6% /
0.0% |
4.3 /
6.3 |
50.0% /
30.0% |
13.6% /
33.3% |
5.3 /
2.5 |
66 /
65 |
36.0% /
43.2% |
39.4% /
40.0% |
39.0% /
40.2% |
4.6 /
4.6 |
3.0% /
1.5% |
33.3% /
46.2% |
30.1 /
27.3 |
| 4 |
SEA |
17 – 27 L |
-5.2 |
40.0% /
61.8% |
8.9% /
5.9% |
7.3% /
0.0% |
5.5 /
8.5 |
30.0% /
31.0% |
25.0% /
31.0% |
2.9 /
2.4 |
65 /
63 |
32.7% /
57.4% |
36.9% /
47.6% |
16.7% /
56.3% |
4.7 /
5.7 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
30.8% /
46.0% |
20.3 /
32.8 |
| 5 |
@PIT |
13 – 31 L |
-4.6 |
46.3% /
60.4% |
7.3% /
2.1% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.0 /
7.8 |
47.1% /
26.9% |
29.4% /
23.1% |
4.2 /
2.4 |
58 /
74 |
54.3% /
52.5% |
46.6% /
48.6% |
8.9% /
23.9% |
5.4 /
5.9 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
29.3% /
35.1% |
21.1 /
32.3 |
| 6 |
@ARI |
3 – 28 L |
-12.2 |
39.5% /
60.0% |
2.6% /
0.0% |
5.4% /
0.0% |
5.2 /
6.4 |
21.4% /
40.5% |
21.4% /
29.7% |
2.4 /
4.7 |
52 /
72 |
40.5% /
52.6% |
34.6% /
50.0% |
25.7% /
27.9% |
4.4 /
5.5 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
26.9% /
51.4% |
20.9 /
25.7 |
| 7 |
BAL |
24 – 16 W |
-0.4 |
37.0% /
34.1% |
18.5% /
2.3% |
0.0% /
4.7% |
7.0 /
5.4 |
37.5% /
8.3% |
15.0% /
58.3% |
3.9 /
0.5 |
67 /
56 |
38.8% /
31.0% |
37.3% /
28.6% |
59.4% /
41.6% |
5.1 /
4.4 |
3.0% /
1.8% |
59.7% /
21.4% |
32.3 /
25.3 |
| 8 |
@CLE |
31 – 28 W |
-3.1 |
36.1% /
38.5% |
5.6% /
1.9% |
0.0% /
3.9% |
6.2 /
6.5 |
45.7% /
44.4% |
28.6% /
38.9% |
4.9 /
3.8 |
71 /
70 |
39.6% /
37.0% |
40.8% /
40.0% |
55.8% /
53.3% |
5.5 /
5.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
49.3% /
25.7% |
30.8 /
22.3 |
| 9 |
@MIA |
23 – 27 L |
-2.0 |
42.4% /
50.0% |
9.1% /
3.3% |
6.7% /
0.0% |
5.8 /
4.6 |
47.6% /
36.4% |
23.8% /
39.4% |
6.7 /
4.2 |
54 /
63 |
48.8% /
44.9% |
44.4% /
42.9% |
51.2% /
46.2% |
6.1 /
4.4 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
38.9% /
52.4% |
27.5 /
34.7 |
| 10 |
LA |
6 – 9 L |
0.5 |
39.4% /
36.4% |
3.0% /
9.1% |
3.1% /
0.0% |
4.8 /
4.7 |
48.0% /
40.5% |
32.0% /
27.0% |
5.6 /
3.5 |
58 /
70 |
47.8% /
43.8% |
43.1% /
38.6% |
50.3% /
49.1% |
5.1 /
4.0 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
43.1% /
52.9% |
17.7 /
27.6 |
| 12 |
NE |
17 – 22 L |
1.3 |
54.5% /
46.0% |
3.0% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
8.2 /
5.7 |
45.8% /
40.0% |
12.5% /
16.0% |
2.7 /
3.8 |
57 /
75 |
54.5% /
51.9% |
50.9% /
44.0% |
45.2% /
36.3% |
5.9 /
5.1 |
3.5% /
0.0% |
42.1% /
33.3% |
22.2 /
31.9 |
| 13 |
IND |
10 – 41 L |
-20.5 |
39.5% /
70.0% |
2.6% /
3.3% |
8.1% /
0.0% |
5.6 /
9.4 |
53.3% /
30.2% |
13.3% /
16.3% |
2.5 /
3.3 |
53 /
73 |
50.0% /
50.0% |
43.4% /
46.6% |
31.9% /
44.3% |
4.7 /
5.8 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
28.3% /
58.9% |
18.3 /
43.7 |
| 14 |
@SF |
23 – 17 W |
-11.9 |
41.5% /
32.1% |
14.6% /
7.1% |
2.9% /
0.0% |
5.3 /
4.1 |
55.0% /
48.1% |
15.0% /
25.9% |
4.7 /
9.2 |
81 /
55 |
48.4% /
47.6% |
48.1% /
40.0% |
38.4% /
70.3% |
5.0 /
6.6 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
49.4% /
49.1% |
27.8 /
28.8 |
Miami Dolphins
@ 
New York Jets