Miami Dolphins @

New England Patriots

Sun, Nov 26
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 255
Odds: New England Patriots -16, Total: 47.5

Game Analysis

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Lean – Miami (+16) over NEW ENGLAND

This game features the largest point spread we have seen all season as the Patriots looking to extend their 6-game win streak. New England has the league’s 2nd most efficient passing offense according to my numbers and Tom Brady has a favorable matchup for the second straight week. Last week, Brady threw for 8.7 yards per pass play against a Raiders pass defense ranked last in my metrics. The Dolphins pass defense ranks 25th and they have not shown much improvement since the return of TJ McDonald, allowing 7.2 yppp combined in the last two weeks. Historically though, the Patriots are relatively better against better defensive teams and Tom Brady’s decision making and accuracy are less important against teams with bad pass defenses. That is one of the reasons why the Patriots have been so good in competitively priced games but are just 30-41 ATS with Tom Brady at quarterback when favored by 9 points or more. That record might not seem so bad but consider that the Patriots are an incredible 163-108-7 (60%) ATS in all games with Brady starting and that 30-41 ATS mark as a big favorite becomes significant.

Miami’s rushing game has actually drastically improved since trading Jay Ajayi, as the Dolphins have averaged 4.9 yards per rush over the last 3 weeks. The Patriots are the only team allowing opponents 5 ypr this season and I expect the Dolphins to find success on the ground. While he has not seen much individual production, Miami’s passing game has improved with the presence of DeVante Parker, who returned in week 9 opposite Jarvis Landry, as the Dolphins have thrown for 7.3 yppp in the last 3 games.

Miami has shown some improvement offensively in the last month and the Patriots’ defense is still near the bottom of the league so I see enough here to lean with the Dolphins as a huge underdog against a Pats team that struggles, relatively, as a big favorite.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Dolphins
  • Patriots
MIA
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 38.5 33.6
  • Succ Pass Plays 42.9% 47.7%
  • Sack Rate 4.7% 5.0%
  • Int Rate 3.5% 1.0%
  • Deep Pass Rate 17.3% 18.2%
  • Big Pass Yards 27.4% 38.5%
  • NYPP 5.4 6.9



Rush


  • Rush Plays 22.6 27.4
  • RB YPR 3.6 3.7
  • Stuff Rate 37.5% 32.0%
  • Succ Rush Plays 35.5% 35.6%
  • Big Rush Yards 43.7% 58.0%
  • Yards Per Rush 3.6 3.9




Game

  • All Snaps 61.1 61.0
  • Early Down Succ 43.5% 45.1%
  • Succ Rate 40.7% 42.7%
  • Big Yards Rate 33.4% 44.0%
  • Yards Per Play 4.8 5.6
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.7% 0.9%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 28.6 30.5
  • Run Ratio 36.7% 44.3%
  • Starting Field Pos 26.2 29.0
  • Game Control -6.5 6.5
 
  • Points 15.7 25.4
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