Game Analysis
Lean – Miami (+16) over NEW ENGLAND
This game features the largest point spread we have seen all season as the Patriots looking to extend their 6-game win streak. New England has the league’s 2nd most efficient passing offense according to my numbers and Tom Brady has a favorable matchup for the second straight week. Last week, Brady threw for 8.7 yards per pass play against a Raiders pass defense ranked last in my metrics. The Dolphins pass defense ranks 25th and they have not shown much improvement since the return of TJ McDonald, allowing 7.2 yppp combined in the last two weeks. Historically though, the Patriots are relatively better against better defensive teams and Tom Brady’s decision making and accuracy are less important against teams with bad pass defenses. That is one of the reasons why the Patriots have been so good in competitively priced games but are just 30-41 ATS with Tom Brady at quarterback when favored by 9 points or more. That record might not seem so bad but consider that the Patriots are an incredible 163-108-7 (60%) ATS in all games with Brady starting and that 30-41 ATS mark as a big favorite becomes significant.
Miami’s rushing game has actually drastically improved since trading Jay Ajayi, as the Dolphins have averaged 4.9 yards per rush over the last 3 weeks. The Patriots are the only team allowing opponents 5 ypr this season and I expect the Dolphins to find success on the ground. While he has not seen much individual production, Miami’s passing game has improved with the presence of DeVante Parker, who returned in week 9 opposite Jarvis Landry, as the Dolphins have thrown for 7.3 yppp in the last 3 games.
Miami has shown some improvement offensively in the last month and the Patriots’ defense is still near the bottom of the league so I see enough here to lean with the Dolphins as a huge underdog against a Pats team that struggles, relatively, as a big favorite.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
38.5
33.6
-
Succ Pass Plays
42.9%
47.7%
-
Sack Rate
4.7%
5.0%
-
Int Rate
3.5%
1.0%
-
Deep Pass Rate
17.3%
18.2%
-
Big Pass Yards
27.4%
38.5%
-
NYPP
5.4
6.9
Rush
-
Rush Plays
22.6
27.4
-
RB YPR
3.6
3.7
-
Stuff Rate
37.5%
32.0%
-
Succ Rush Plays
35.5%
35.6%
-
Big Rush Yards
43.7%
58.0%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.6
3.9
Game
-
All Snaps
61.1
61.0
-
Early Down Succ
43.5%
45.1%
-
Succ Rate
40.7%
42.7%
-
Big Yards Rate
33.4%
44.0%
-
Yards Per Play
4.8
5.6
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.7%
0.9%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.6
30.5
-
Run Ratio
36.7%
44.3%
-
Starting Field Pos
26.2
29.0
-
Game Control
-6.5
6.5
Pass
-
Pass Plays
40.9
39.6
-
Succ Pass Plays
51.3%
51.5%
-
Sack Rate
6.3%
4.8%
-
Int Rate
0.5%
2.2%
-
Deep Pass Rate
21.4%
23.1%
-
Big Pass Yards
40.9%
39.7%
-
NYPP
7.5
7.3
Rush
-
Rush Plays
27.5
24.9
-
RB YPR
3.9
4.7
-
Stuff Rate
20.3%
16.6%
-
Succ Rush Plays
54.0%
53.5%
-
Big Rush Yards
23.8%
40.4%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.9
4.9
Game
-
All Snaps
68.4
64.5
-
Early Down Succ
55.4%
55.9%
-
Succ Rate
52.5%
51.9%
-
Big Yards Rate
36.8%
40.8%
-
Yards Per Play
6.0
6.3
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.5%
1.4%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
24.5
24.7
-
Run Ratio
39.9%
38.9%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.7
24.5
-
Game Control
6.6
-6.6
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
2 |
@LAC |
19 – 17 W |
-2.0 |
44.4% / 62.5% |
5.6% / 2.5% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
6.3 / 8.1 |
36.4% / 28.6% |
30.3% / 50.0% |
3.4 / 3.1 |
69 / 54 |
43.4% / 58.7% |
40.6% / 53.7% |
38.9% / 28.6% |
4.9 / 6.8 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
47.8% / 25.9% |
26.4 / 24.9 |
3 |
@NYJ |
6 – 20 L |
-9.8 |
41.7% / 52.0% |
6.3% / 8.0% |
4.4% / 0.0% |
4.1 / 9.3 |
46.7% / 37.1% |
46.7% / 34.3% |
2.0 / 3.0 |
63 / 60 |
54.2% / 48.9% |
42.9% / 43.3% |
11.6% / 40.1% |
3.6 / 5.6 |
0.0% / 1.7% |
23.8% / 58.3% |
23.7 / 31.4 |
4 |
NO |
0 – 20 L |
-5.5 |
37.5% / 48.8% |
12.5% / 2.4% |
3.6% / 0.0% |
4.0 / 6.4 |
60.0% / 46.4% |
40.0% / 14.3% |
3.9 / 3.1 |
47 / 69 |
52.6% / 46.3% |
44.7% / 47.8% |
31.7% / 46.1% |
4.0 / 5.0 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
31.9% / 40.6% |
27.0 / 28.8 |
5 |
TEN |
16 – 10 W |
4.2 |
25.0% / 36.8% |
3.6% / 15.8% |
3.7% / 0.0% |
2.8 / 3.1 |
43.8% / 30.0% |
28.1% / 45.0% |
3.2 / 3.5 |
60 / 58 |
37.2% / 40.0% |
35.0% / 34.5% |
6.1% / 19.1% |
3.0 / 3.2 |
1.7% / 3.4% |
53.3% / 34.5% |
27.0 / 25.1 |
6 |
@ATL |
20 – 17 W |
-7.7 |
45.5% / 50.0% |
0.0% / 5.6% |
3.0% / 2.9% |
4.6 / 6.6 |
46.9% / 47.4% |
25.0% / 42.1% |
4.3 / 5.3 |
65 / 55 |
47.9% / 48.8% |
46.2% / 49.1% |
23.8% / 40.1% |
4.5 / 6.2 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
49.2% / 34.5% |
30.2 / 20.7 |
7 |
NYJ |
31 – 28 W |
-5.2 |
52.5% / 36.7% |
7.5% / 10.0% |
5.4% / 3.7% |
7.6 / 6.0 |
24.0% / 34.8% |
44.0% / 30.4% |
2.1 / 4.0 |
65 / 53 |
42.3% / 37.5% |
41.5% / 35.8% |
53.8% / 61.9% |
5.5 / 5.2 |
0.0% / 1.9% |
38.5% / 43.4% |
31.2 / 29.3 |
8 |
@BAL |
0 – 40 L |
-17.5 |
29.8% / 36.4% |
6.4% / 0.0% |
4.5% / 0.0% |
3.2 / 5.5 |
26.3% / 34.9% |
42.1% / 20.9% |
2.4 / 4.1 |
66 / 65 |
30.6% / 42.6% |
28.8% / 35.4% |
41.3% / 45.0% |
3.0 / 4.6 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
28.8% / 66.2% |
22.2 / 35.3 |
9 |
OAK |
24 – 27 L |
-3.2 |
58.1% / 54.8% |
2.3% / 3.2% |
0.0% / 3.3% |
7.2 / 9.5 |
27.8% / 23.3% |
38.9% / 23.3% |
4.8 / 2.9 |
61 / 61 |
52.1% / 39.0% |
49.2% / 39.3% |
26.8% / 59.7% |
6.5 / 6.3 |
1.6% / 1.6% |
29.5% / 49.2% |
27.1 / 28.2 |
10 |
@CAR |
21 – 45 L |
-12.9 |
48.6% / 60.0% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
2.7% / 0.0% |
5.8 / 7.3 |
27.8% / 52.6% |
22.2% / 18.4% |
5.6 / 7.8 |
55 / 73 |
40.0% / 54.5% |
41.8% / 56.2% |
38.9% / 57.3% |
5.7 / 7.5 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
32.7% / 52.1% |
21.9 / 30.1 |
11 |
TB |
20 – 30 L |
-5.1 |
46.3% / 39.5% |
2.4% / 2.6% |
7.5% / 0.0% |
8.9 / 7.1 |
15.8% / 20.8% |
57.9% / 41.7% |
4.4 / 2.2 |
60 / 62 |
34.8% / 34.7% |
36.7% / 32.3% |
61.2% / 42.4% |
7.5 / 5.2 |
3.3% / 0.0% |
31.7% / 38.7% |
25.2 / 35.9 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
KC |
27 – 42 L |
1.8 |
33.3% / 60.5% |
7.7% / 7.9% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
6.3 / 9.3 |
50.0% / 42.4% |
25.0% / 9.1% |
3.5 / 5.7 |
75 / 71 |
46.4% / 63.5% |
41.3% / 52.1% |
54.8% / 53.7% |
5.0 / 7.6 |
0.0% / 1.4% |
48.0% / 46.5% |
27.8 / 25.5 |
2 |
@NO |
36 – 20 W |
14.2 |
61.0% / 51.1% |
4.9% / 2.2% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
10.6 / 7.7 |
51.6% / 47.1% |
22.6% / 11.8% |
3.8 / 4.8 |
72 / 62 |
58.3% / 54.2% |
56.9% / 50.0% |
53.2% / 48.3% |
7.7 / 6.9 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
43.1% / 27.4% |
27.5 / 27.9 |
3 |
HOU |
36 – 33 W |
1.2 |
47.5% / 48.6% |
12.5% / 5.7% |
0.0% / 6.1% |
8.4 / 8.3 |
45.0% / 56.3% |
30.0% / 15.6% |
3.0 / 3.9 |
60 / 67 |
46.8% / 54.7% |
46.7% / 52.2% |
52.3% / 38.8% |
6.6 / 6.2 |
1.7% / 0.0% |
33.3% / 47.8% |
28.8 / 24.0 |
4 |
CAR |
30 – 33 L |
-1.9 |
60.4% / 61.3% |
6.3% / 6.5% |
0.0% / 3.4% |
6.1 / 9.8 |
73.7% / 51.7% |
21.1% / 20.7% |
4.2 / 4.8 |
67 / 60 |
66.7% / 54.9% |
64.2% / 56.7% |
22.0% / 48.0% |
5.6 / 7.4 |
0.0% / 1.7% |
28.4% / 48.3% |
26.1 / 26.7 |
5 |
@TB |
19 – 14 W |
4.4 |
51.2% / 48.9% |
7.0% / 4.3% |
2.5% / 0.0% |
6.7 / 6.8 |
47.8% / 55.0% |
17.4% / 20.0% |
4.9 / 4.5 |
66 / 67 |
53.7% / 55.6% |
50.0% / 50.7% |
24.6% / 37.2% |
6.1 / 6.1 |
1.5% / 0.0% |
34.8% / 29.9% |
27.7 / 27.4 |
6 |
@NYJ |
24 – 17 W |
-0.1 |
39.5% / 54.0% |
0.0% / 8.0% |
2.6% / 4.3% |
6.8 / 6.7 |
61.5% / 40.0% |
7.7% / 24.0% |
4.6 / 3.0 |
64 / 75 |
49.0% / 50.9% |
48.4% / 49.3% |
29.5% / 46.0% |
5.9 / 5.5 |
1.6% / 1.3% |
40.6% / 33.3% |
28.7 / 24.0 |
7 |
ATL |
23 – 7 W |
11.4 |
48.4% / 58.8% |
6.5% / 2.9% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
7.8 / 6.6 |
56.4% / 54.5% |
12.8% / 18.2% |
4.2 / 5.5 |
70 / 56 |
57.7% / 65.9% |
52.9% / 57.1% |
38.4% / 26.8% |
5.8 / 6.1 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
55.7% / 39.3% |
28.8 / 21.9 |
8 |
LAC |
21 – 13 W |
4.4 |
50.0% / 46.7% |
6.0% / 3.3% |
0.0% / 3.4% |
6.3 / 6.4 |
43.8% / 66.7% |
28.1% / 19.0% |
3.0 / 7.5 |
82 / 51 |
46.8% / 60.0% |
47.6% / 54.9% |
21.3% / 38.7% |
5.0 / 6.8 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
39.0% / 41.2% |
30.5 / 20.5 |
10 |
@DEN |
41 – 16 W |
14.7 |
65.8% / 39.4% |
2.6% / 0.0% |
0.0% / 3.0% |
7.8 / 6.7 |
55.2% / 44.8% |
13.8% / 13.8% |
3.4 / 4.1 |
67 / 62 |
67.9% / 40.0% |
61.2% / 41.9% |
32.1% / 46.2% |
5.9 / 5.5 |
0.0% / 1.6% |
43.3% / 46.8% |
37.9 / 23.7 |
11 |
@OAK |
33 – 8 W |
15.9 |
56.1% / 45.3% |
9.8% / 7.5% |
0.0% / 2.0% |
8.1 / 4.4 |
55.0% / 76.2% |
25.0% / 14.3% |
4.5 / 5.2 |
61 / 74 |
60.4% / 59.6% |
55.7% / 54.1% |
40.2% / 24.4% |
6.9 / 4.6 |
0.0% / 8.1% |
32.8% / 28.4% |
23.1 / 23.0 |