Game Analysis

0.5 Units – Miami Team Total Under (13.5 -105)

Alternate play is the game under 38.5 (at 38 or more)

Miami has scored 13 points, 13 points, and 10 points and now they’re without their best offensive player in De’Von Achane. Achane has averaged 5.5 yards per run in his career (5.7 ypr last season!) and while he’s averaged just 3.7 ypr this season behind a bad offensive line that’s still much better than the 58 yards on 23 runs (2.5 ypr) that the other two backs have averaged. Those same two backs, Gordon and Wright, were terrible last season too in a much better offensive system and have now combined for just 3.3 ypr on 163 runs since the beginning of last season.

More responsibility will now fall on quarterback Malik Willis, who has completed just 57% of his passes and has an EPA per play of -0.024 with a poor 39% success rate. He’ll now be facing the blitz-heavy Vikings’ defense that ranks #1 in EPA per play, EPA per dropback, and success rate per dropback – and also ranks 2nd best in EPA and success rate against the run. Making matters worse is the absence of WR Caleb Douglas, who leads the team with 11.3 yards per target on his 10 targets the first two weeks before sitting out last week’s game (the other wide receivers have combined for just 7.8 ypt).

The Vikings have not been a good matchup for any quarterback, but it looks particularly bad for Willis, who has suffered a -0.43 EPA on 30 dropbacks this season against the blitz, compared to a +0.06 EPA per dropback when the opponent is not blitzing. In his career Willis has been 0.22 EPA per dropback worse facing a blitz than when not and the Vikings blitz 64% of the time (28% is average and Willis has faced 28% blitzes). Based on Willis’ career splits, facing a blitz 64% of his dropbacks would make him 2.8 points per game worse than normal.

Miami hasn’t scored more than 13 points in any of their 3 games and I think 10 points in this game is a more than reasonable expectation (I project 10.2 points before factoring in Willis’ struggles against the blitz).

Miami’s defense hasn’t been too bad, as allowing 6.3 yards per play (excluding 5 kneel downs) is not too horrible considering that they faced the 49ers and the Chiefs (the Raiders were the other team). The Dolphins rank 25th in my compensated adjusted EPA per play metric, which dampens the effect of turnovers, and 25th in compensated success rate allowed with a compensated defensive rating of just 2.3 points worse than average (I actually rate that unit at 3.3 points worse than average).

Minnesota’s offense has been horrible, as the Vikings are dead last in success rate (31%) and total yards. Having Kyler Murray back last week did not help, as the offense managed just 24% success rate and a -0.26 EPA per play against the Bucs. I don’t think the offense can get any worse but not having elite WR Justin Jefferson will make their regression towards respectable offense more challenging.

My ratings, adjusted for injuries, favors Minnesota by 12.7 points with a total of just 33.1 points and a 23-10 score sounds about right to me. I obviously like the under in this game, but I’m concerned that Minnesota’s offense could hit their stride against a bad Miami defense, even without Jefferson. I’m more trusting of Minnesota’s blitz-heavy defense shutting down a Miami attack that hasn’t scored more than 13 points in any game.

Miami’s Team Total Under 13.5 is a 0.5 Unit play.

The alternate play, if you don’t have team totals, is the game under 38.5 (at 38 or more).