Game Analysis

Kansas City (-1.5) vs Miami

· Patrick Mahomes averaged a season-low 5.2 yppp last week playing through illness and his recovery might not go as well with this international trip to Germany. Mahomes will go against a rapidly improving Dolphins secondary.

· Miami CB Jalen Ramsey played his first game of the season last week and he completely shut down his side of the field. Patriots quarterback Mac Jones averaged 0.7 yppp on throws to his left and Ramsey had an interception. Ramsey is about a point better than backup CB Eli Apple, who is surrendering 1.57 yards per cover snap ranking 60th out of 69 qualifying cornerbacks.

· Apple will be benched in this game with Ramsey and Pro Bowl CB Xavien Howard available together for the first game this year. Miami’s defense will also have starting safety Jevon Holland back from a concussion.

· The Dolphins are surrendering a league-high 67% success rate to tight ends and they will struggle against TE Travis Kelce, who is gaining 0.54 EPA/target (3rd).

· Chiefs RG Trey Smith is one of 12 qualifying guards to have not conceded a sack and he will contain interior defender Christian Wilkins, who ranks 13th in pass-rushing efficiency.

· Miami’s offensive line only conceded 2 pressures last week and they could get two starters back into the fold on Sunday in C Connor Williams and LT Terron Armstead.

· Kansas City’s pass rush mostly comes from the other side though with George Karlaftis’ 39 pressures ranking 6th among edge defenders and Chris Jones’ 30 pressures ranking 4th among interior defenders. Karlaftis and Jones will be contained by RT Austin Jackson and RG Robert Hunt. Jackson ranks 3rd in pass-blocking efficiency among tackles and Hunt ranks 3rd in pass-blocking efficiency among guards.

· Chiefs CB L’Jarius Sneed is allowing only 0.82 yards per cover snap (15th) and he will battle with WR Tyreek Hill, who is averaging 0.69 EPA/target (3rd).

· The Dolphins are leading the NFL averaging 0.04 EPA/rush and they will lean on the ground game as Kansas City’s rush defense is surrendering a 42.0% success rate (27th).

· Our model makes Miami a 1.5-point favorite with a predicted total of 50.1 points but Kansas City is good off a loss (17-5 ATS up to -7) and the Chiefs apply to a 67-27-3 ATS bounce-back situation based on last week’s upset loss in Denver.