Miami Dolphins @

Kansas City Chiefs

Sun, Dec 24
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 119
Odds: Kansas City Chiefs -10.5, Total: 43.5

Game Analysis

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Lean – Miami (+10.5) over KANSAS CITY

Kansas City’s offense is averaging 7.2 yards per play under new play-caller Matt Nagy the last 3 weeks. Nagy is utilizing the deep ball more often to take opposing safeties out of the box, which opens up more running lanes. Tyreek Hill is gaining 16.6 yards per target with 3 touchdowns in the new system and Kareem Hunt has led the league’s second-best rushing offense during the stretch. The correlation between the percent of Alex Smith’s passes thrown deeper than 20 yards and Kansas City’s yards per play in a game is 0.32, meaning the Chiefs are likely to succeed offensively if Smith continues to air-it-out.

Trading Jay Ajayi freed up more touches for Dolphins running back Kenyan Drake and he has not disappointed averaging 4.8 yards per rush this season. Kansas City’s rush defense ranks 28th in my metrics and I expect Drake to find room to run on Sunday, which could enable the Dolphins to keep this game competitive by moving the chains and shortening the game.

My model favors Kansas City by 12 points but Miami applies to a 92-28-1 ATS situation while KC applies to a 42-122-2 ATS big favorite letdown situation. Miami also applies to an 80-25-2 ATS week 16 angle. So, I’ll lean with Miami despite some negative line value.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Dolphins
  • Chiefs
MIA
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 39.4 34.6
  • Succ Pass Plays 43.1% 45.0%
  • Sack Rate 5.8% 5.1%
  • Int Rate 3.8% 1.8%
  • Deep Pass Rate 18.1% 18.8%
  • Big Pass Yards 28.6% 45.3%
  • NYPP 5.4 6.6



Rush


  • Rush Plays 23.4 27.1
  • RB YPR 3.8 3.7
  • Stuff Rate 34.7% 30.6%
  • Succ Rush Plays 38.5% 35.9%
  • Big Rush Yards 45.4% 56.8%
  • Yards Per Rush 3.8 3.9




Game

  • All Snaps 62.8 61.8
  • Early Down Succ 45.2% 44.5%
  • Succ Rate 41.7% 41.2%
  • Big Yards Rate 34.3% 48.6%
  • Yards Per Play 4.8 5.4
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.7% 0.7%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 28.8 29.2
  • Run Ratio 37.1% 43.2%
  • Starting Field Pos 27.5 28.3
  • Game Control -4.9 4.9
 
  • Points 18.0 24.4
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