Game Analysis
Lean – Miami (+10.5) over KANSAS CITY
Kansas City’s offense is averaging 7.2 yards per play under new play-caller Matt Nagy the last 3 weeks. Nagy is utilizing the deep ball more often to take opposing safeties out of the box, which opens up more running lanes. Tyreek Hill is gaining 16.6 yards per target with 3 touchdowns in the new system and Kareem Hunt has led the league’s second-best rushing offense during the stretch. The correlation between the percent of Alex Smith’s passes thrown deeper than 20 yards and Kansas City’s yards per play in a game is 0.32, meaning the Chiefs are likely to succeed offensively if Smith continues to air-it-out.
Trading Jay Ajayi freed up more touches for Dolphins running back Kenyan Drake and he has not disappointed averaging 4.8 yards per rush this season. Kansas City’s rush defense ranks 28th in my metrics and I expect Drake to find room to run on Sunday, which could enable the Dolphins to keep this game competitive by moving the chains and shortening the game.
My model favors Kansas City by 12 points but Miami applies to a 92-28-1 ATS situation while KC applies to a 42-122-2 ATS big favorite letdown situation. Miami also applies to an 80-25-2 ATS week 16 angle. So, I’ll lean with Miami despite some negative line value.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
39.4
34.6
-
Succ Pass Plays
43.1%
45.0%
-
Sack Rate
5.8%
5.1%
-
Int Rate
3.8%
1.8%
-
Deep Pass Rate
18.1%
18.8%
-
Big Pass Yards
28.6%
45.3%
-
NYPP
5.4
6.6
Rush
-
Rush Plays
23.4
27.1
-
RB YPR
3.8
3.7
-
Stuff Rate
34.7%
30.6%
-
Succ Rush Plays
38.5%
35.9%
-
Big Rush Yards
45.4%
56.8%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.8
3.9
Game
-
All Snaps
62.8
61.8
-
Early Down Succ
45.2%
44.5%
-
Succ Rate
41.7%
41.2%
-
Big Yards Rate
34.3%
48.6%
-
Yards Per Play
4.8
5.4
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.7%
0.7%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.8
29.2
-
Run Ratio
37.1%
43.2%
-
Starting Field Pos
27.5
28.3
-
Game Control
-4.9
4.9
Pass
-
Pass Plays
35.8
37.5
-
Succ Pass Plays
46.8%
45.1%
-
Sack Rate
7.1%
4.7%
-
Int Rate
1.4%
2.7%
-
Deep Pass Rate
18.6%
24.2%
-
Big Pass Yards
46.0%
41.7%
-
NYPP
7.0
6.7
Rush
-
Rush Plays
25.2
29.2
-
RB YPR
4.5
4.1
-
Stuff Rate
22.4%
21.7%
-
Succ Rush Plays
44.4%
50.3%
-
Big Rush Yards
52.1%
47.6%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.9
4.5
Game
-
All Snaps
61.0
66.7
-
Early Down Succ
49.2%
49.4%
-
Succ Rate
45.8%
47.0%
-
Big Yards Rate
48.8%
43.5%
-
Yards Per Play
6.2
5.6
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.2%
0.8%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
29.9
27.0
-
Run Ratio
40.6%
43.3%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.5
25.7
-
Game Control
2.1
-2.1
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 2 |
@LAC |
19 – 17 W |
-2.0 |
44.4% /
62.5% |
5.6% /
2.5% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.3 /
8.1 |
36.4% /
28.6% |
30.3% /
50.0% |
3.4 /
3.1 |
69 /
54 |
43.4% /
58.7% |
40.6% /
53.7% |
38.9% /
28.6% |
4.9 /
6.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
47.8% /
25.9% |
26.4 /
24.9 |
| 3 |
@NYJ |
6 – 20 L |
-9.8 |
41.7% /
52.0% |
6.3% /
8.0% |
4.4% /
0.0% |
4.1 /
9.3 |
46.7% /
37.1% |
46.7% /
34.3% |
2.0 /
3.0 |
63 /
60 |
54.2% /
48.9% |
42.9% /
43.3% |
11.6% /
40.1% |
3.6 /
5.6 |
0.0% /
1.7% |
23.8% /
58.3% |
23.7 /
31.4 |
| 4 |
NO |
0 – 20 L |
-5.5 |
37.5% /
48.8% |
12.5% /
2.4% |
3.6% /
0.0% |
4.0 /
6.4 |
60.0% /
46.4% |
40.0% /
14.3% |
3.9 /
3.1 |
47 /
69 |
52.6% /
46.3% |
44.7% /
47.8% |
31.7% /
46.1% |
4.0 /
5.0 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
31.9% /
40.6% |
27.0 /
28.8 |
| 5 |
TEN |
16 – 10 W |
4.2 |
25.0% /
36.8% |
3.6% /
15.8% |
3.7% /
0.0% |
2.8 /
3.1 |
43.8% /
30.0% |
28.1% /
45.0% |
3.2 /
3.5 |
60 /
58 |
37.2% /
40.0% |
35.0% /
34.5% |
6.1% /
19.1% |
3.0 /
3.2 |
1.7% /
3.4% |
53.3% /
34.5% |
27.0 /
25.1 |
| 6 |
@ATL |
20 – 17 W |
-7.7 |
45.5% /
50.0% |
0.0% /
5.6% |
3.0% /
2.9% |
4.6 /
6.6 |
46.9% /
47.4% |
25.0% /
42.1% |
4.3 /
5.3 |
65 /
55 |
47.9% /
48.8% |
46.2% /
49.1% |
23.8% /
40.1% |
4.5 /
6.2 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
49.2% /
34.5% |
30.2 /
20.7 |
| 7 |
NYJ |
31 – 28 W |
-5.2 |
52.5% /
36.7% |
7.5% /
10.0% |
5.4% /
3.7% |
7.6 /
6.0 |
24.0% /
34.8% |
44.0% /
30.4% |
2.1 /
4.0 |
65 /
53 |
42.3% /
37.5% |
41.5% /
35.8% |
53.8% /
61.9% |
5.5 /
5.2 |
0.0% /
1.9% |
38.5% /
43.4% |
31.2 /
29.3 |
| 8 |
@BAL |
0 – 40 L |
-17.5 |
29.8% /
36.4% |
6.4% /
0.0% |
4.5% /
0.0% |
3.2 /
5.5 |
26.3% /
34.9% |
42.1% /
20.9% |
2.4 /
4.1 |
66 /
65 |
30.6% /
42.6% |
28.8% /
35.4% |
41.3% /
45.0% |
3.0 /
4.6 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
28.8% /
66.2% |
22.2 /
35.3 |
| 9 |
OAK |
24 – 27 L |
-3.2 |
58.1% /
54.8% |
2.3% /
3.2% |
0.0% /
3.3% |
7.2 /
9.5 |
27.8% /
23.3% |
38.9% /
23.3% |
4.8 /
2.9 |
61 /
61 |
52.1% /
39.0% |
49.2% /
39.3% |
26.8% /
59.7% |
6.5 /
6.3 |
1.6% /
1.6% |
29.5% /
49.2% |
27.1 /
28.2 |
| 10 |
@CAR |
21 – 45 L |
-12.9 |
48.6% /
60.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
2.7% /
0.0% |
5.8 /
7.3 |
27.8% /
52.6% |
22.2% /
18.4% |
5.6 /
7.8 |
55 /
73 |
40.0% /
54.5% |
41.8% /
56.2% |
38.9% /
57.3% |
5.7 /
7.5 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
32.7% /
52.1% |
21.9 /
30.1 |
| 11 |
TB |
20 – 30 L |
-5.1 |
46.3% /
39.5% |
2.4% /
2.6% |
7.5% /
0.0% |
8.9 /
7.1 |
15.8% /
20.8% |
57.9% /
41.7% |
4.4 /
2.2 |
60 /
62 |
34.8% /
34.7% |
36.7% /
32.3% |
61.2% /
42.4% |
7.5 /
5.2 |
3.3% /
0.0% |
31.7% /
38.7% |
25.2 /
35.9 |
| 12 |
@NE |
17 – 35 L |
-13.1 |
47.5% /
44.8% |
17.5% /
3.4% |
6.1% /
3.6% |
3.9 /
7.6 |
42.1% /
42.9% |
31.6% /
16.7% |
3.5 /
4.8 |
59 /
71 |
51.1% /
50.0% |
45.8% /
43.7% |
23.5% /
69.4% |
3.7 /
5.9 |
1.7% /
1.4% |
32.2% /
59.2% |
25.9 /
31.6 |
| 13 |
DEN |
35 – 9 W |
12.2 |
41.2% /
29.5% |
5.9% /
6.8% |
6.3% /
7.3% |
6.5 /
3.8 |
43.3% /
34.8% |
23.3% /
26.1% |
4.8 /
4.5 |
64 /
67 |
46.9% /
37.7% |
42.2% /
31.3% |
56.1% /
60.7% |
5.7 /
4.0 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
46.9% /
34.3% |
40.2 /
17.9 |
| 14 |
NE |
27 – 20 W |
7.4 |
45.0% /
33.3% |
5.0% /
4.4% |
0.0% /
4.7% |
6.1 /
5.0 |
40.6% /
30.0% |
21.9% /
40.0% |
3.8 /
2.5 |
72 /
55 |
50.0% /
40.9% |
43.1% /
32.7% |
35.3% /
56.9% |
5.1 /
4.5 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
44.4% /
18.2% |
28.8 /
24.2 |
| 15 |
@BUF |
16 – 24 L |
-10.0 |
40.4% /
45.2% |
5.8% /
6.5% |
6.1% /
0.0% |
4.8 /
6.8 |
57.1% /
38.7% |
33.3% /
25.8% |
4.8 /
3.8 |
73 /
62 |
50.0% /
43.2% |
45.2% /
41.9% |
30.9% /
52.9% |
4.8 /
5.3 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
28.8% /
50.0% |
28.6 /
33.1 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@NE |
42 – 27 W |
-1.8 |
60.5% /
33.3% |
7.9% /
7.7% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
9.3 /
6.3 |
42.4% /
50.0% |
9.1% /
25.0% |
5.7 /
3.5 |
71 /
75 |
63.5% /
46.4% |
52.1% /
41.3% |
53.7% /
54.8% |
7.6 /
5.0 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
46.5% /
48.0% |
25.5 /
27.8 |
| 2 |
PHI |
27 – 20 W |
2.0 |
50.0% /
44.2% |
12.5% /
11.5% |
0.0% /
2.2% |
7.3 /
5.8 |
47.4% /
58.8% |
26.3% /
17.6% |
5.9 /
6.3 |
51 /
69 |
51.3% /
46.3% |
49.0% /
47.8% |
45.3% /
42.4% |
6.7 /
5.9 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
37.3% /
24.6% |
35.6 /
26.1 |
| 3 |
@LAC |
24 – 10 W |
8.0 |
34.6% /
35.7% |
19.2% /
4.8% |
0.0% /
7.5% |
4.7 /
5.4 |
56.0% /
34.6% |
20.0% /
34.6% |
7.6 /
4.0 |
51 /
68 |
50.0% /
34.5% |
45.1% /
35.3% |
55.0% /
39.1% |
6.1 /
4.9 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
49.0% /
38.2% |
30.5 /
22.8 |
| 4 |
WAS |
29 – 20 W |
-4.3 |
47.5% /
45.8% |
10.0% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.5 /
9.2 |
58.1% /
51.9% |
19.4% /
14.8% |
5.4 /
4.1 |
71 /
51 |
51.7% /
54.1% |
52.1% /
49.0% |
43.4% /
57.2% |
6.0 /
6.5 |
0.0% /
2.0% |
43.7% /
52.9% |
21.2 /
26.8 |
| 5 |
@HOU |
42 – 34 W |
9.9 |
57.9% /
46.9% |
2.6% /
9.4% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
8.5 /
7.8 |
40.0% /
60.9% |
34.3% /
13.0% |
3.6 /
6.3 |
73 /
55 |
47.4% /
56.8% |
49.3% /
52.7% |
31.6% /
64.8% |
6.2 /
7.1 |
0.0% /
1.8% |
47.9% /
41.8% |
31.2 /
27.6 |
| 6 |
PIT |
13 – 19 L |
-5.8 |
35.1% /
57.7% |
8.1% /
3.8% |
0.0% /
4.0% |
6.0 /
9.4 |
40.0% /
53.8% |
33.3% /
17.9% |
1.9 /
5.0 |
52 /
65 |
39.5% /
64.0% |
36.5% /
55.4% |
62.5% /
61.7% |
4.8 /
6.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
28.8% /
60.0% |
31.7 /
21.3 |
| 7 |
@OAK |
30 – 31 L |
3.0 |
48.6% /
44.2% |
2.7% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
8.9 /
8.0 |
47.8% /
38.1% |
26.1% /
19.0% |
4.1 /
4.2 |
60 /
73 |
46.7% /
40.7% |
48.3% /
42.5% |
52.9% /
45.7% |
7.1 /
6.9 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
38.3% /
28.8% |
22.9 /
20.6 |
| 8 |
DEN |
29 – 19 W |
11.9 |
36.4% /
41.0% |
3.0% /
7.7% |
3.1% /
8.3% |
6.0 /
4.8 |
25.9% /
61.3% |
37.0% /
12.9% |
3.0 /
5.7 |
60 /
70 |
37.0% /
53.6% |
31.7% /
50.0% |
52.0% /
39.0% |
4.6 /
5.2 |
1.7% /
2.9% |
45.0% /
44.3% |
40.0 /
23.9 |
| 9 |
@DAL |
17 – 28 L |
-4.3 |
50.0% /
52.9% |
5.6% /
2.9% |
2.9% /
0.0% |
7.1 /
7.2 |
42.1% /
64.5% |
31.6% /
12.9% |
3.6 /
4.2 |
55 /
65 |
51.2% /
58.5% |
47.3% /
58.5% |
40.6% /
42.4% |
5.9 /
5.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
34.5% /
47.7% |
22.9 /
26.8 |
| 11 |
@NYG |
9 – 12 L |
-2.1 |
42.9% /
38.9% |
2.4% /
0.0% |
7.3% /
2.8% |
5.5 /
5.7 |
51.7% /
40.0% |
10.3% /
22.9% |
4.6 /
3.2 |
71 /
71 |
49.2% /
45.1% |
46.5% /
39.4% |
41.6% /
22.0% |
5.1 /
4.5 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
40.8% /
49.3% |
21.5 /
30.2 |
| 12 |
BUF |
10 – 16 L |
-5.9 |
39.5% /
45.2% |
5.3% /
6.5% |
2.8% /
0.0% |
4.8 /
5.3 |
25.0% /
38.5% |
30.0% /
38.5% |
2.8 /
2.7 |
58 /
70 |
42.9% /
46.9% |
34.5% /
41.4% |
39.2% /
34.1% |
4.1 /
3.9 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
34.5% /
55.7% |
21.8 /
34.8 |
| 13 |
@NYJ |
31 – 38 L |
0.6 |
54.3% /
58.3% |
5.7% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
10.3 /
9.2 |
54.5% /
43.1% |
9.1% /
29.4% |
10.2 /
3.1 |
46 /
87 |
59.5% /
46.8% |
54.3% /
49.4% |
74.5% /
40.8% |
10.3 /
5.6 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
23.9% /
58.6% |
27.2 /
24.0 |
| 14 |
OAK |
26 – 15 W |
13.4 |
50.0% /
45.5% |
10.5% /
6.8% |
2.9% /
4.9% |
6.4 /
4.5 |
41.2% /
45.5% |
11.8% /
27.3% |
4.9 /
6.4 |
72 /
55 |
49.1% /
46.3% |
45.8% /
45.5% |
46.0% /
29.1% |
5.7 /
4.9 |
0.0% /
1.8% |
47.2% /
20.0% |
32.2 /
24.8 |
| 15 |
LAC |
30 – 13 W |
4.6 |
48.4% /
42.1% |
3.2% /
5.3% |
0.0% /
8.3% |
7.2 /
5.5 |
50.0% /
63.6% |
15.6% /
18.2% |
5.4 /
4.5 |
63 /
60 |
50.0% /
51.1% |
49.2% /
50.0% |
45.3% /
35.2% |
6.3 /
5.1 |
0.0% /
1.7% |
50.8% /
36.7% |
34.9 /
22.3 |
Miami Dolphins
@ 
Kansas City Chiefs